Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - June 03-04, 2014

[Dobber]

Bishop/Bob is a coin toss
Bernier is behind both based on the leafs still having Carlyle
KHubodin bumps back a little as new coach will give ward ANOTHER chance IMHO

Yes, well said

[Dobber]

Mikael Backlund.

He finally seemed to break out last year in Calgary and played a key role for Sweden in the recent World Championship tourney. He even wore the "A" for Sweden in the tourney.

Has he finally turned the corner and ready to be the player Calgary hoped for when they drafted him in the 1st round in '07 and do you think he improves on his numbers from last year?

I think he will and it will be in the forum of a couple of huge hot streaks (and equally huge cold runs). But he's also injury prone, so don't plan on more than 70 games

[Dobber]

Need to look at picking up a Dman for my points only keeper. Any reason to think either Dumba, Murphy or Brendan Smith make an offensive impact in '15 ?

I think Murphy might. But that leans huge on the new coach. Smith will improve on last year, but only by five or 10 points. I think he improved throughout last season with each passing month. I can see Dumba not making the team. He needs more time

[vic rattlehead]

Which two out of these three prospects would you keep for next year: Elias Lindholm, Nick Bjugstad, and Nikita Kucherov

16 team Roto H2H League
G, A, FOW, H+B, PIM, PPP, GWG, SOG, W, Sv%, GAA

[franklin]

Hi Dobber,

Points only keeper league:

1-Please rank: Jurco, Domi, Gaudreau and Trocheck

2-3YP for Edler?

3- Do you really think A.Duclair would be a top prospect if he was available in this year draft?

Thanks for your help!

[Big Baby]

Thanks a lot you big baby!

I would say:
Bobrovsky
Bishop
Bernier
Bhudobin (had to keep the B theme going)

Thanks Dobber. Looks like Bob is my man.

[Dobber]

Thanks for doing this Dobber. Always a treat, sir.

Points-only, what do you see for Ondrej Palat for the next year, three years?
IMO - a very touch read bc of all the talent TBay has coming up, including Drouin.

Thanks

This is a great question and one I have been thinking about since they were eliminated in April. Palat dominated more with each passing month. He was an impact player in the playoffs when they were eliminated (just as he was a year ago, leading the AHL in playoff scoring). Will he fall victim to the sophomore jinx?
He's in the high-risk group. Players who are 21 or older as rookies are 67% likely to see at least a small decline the following year (20 and under, that number is 33%). In the case of Palat, I think he's just too good and have a hard time believing he'll decline. Drouin will at least start the year on the third line.
So to balance out my two conflicting sides, I'm going to go with Palat getting the same points as last season, but maybe two or three points below that number. And then in 2015-16 he surges into the 60s. He's the real deal though, long term

[RC44]

Thanks for doing this, you are right best prospect report yet!

Thoughts on Hiller? Should I hope he lands as a #1 on a bad team?

Is Jake Allen going to end up being the guy in St. Louis this year?

[Philgiguere2000]

Thanks for doing this.
I am in a 12 teams keeper league
Points only for FW and DEF and goalies : win = 3, SO = 2
Starting lineup : 12 forwards, 6 def and 2 goalies
18 keepers on 28 players total

I have already 9 forwards : Tavares, Malkin, Benn, Kopitar, N.Hopkins, Zetterberg, St-Louis, Barkov, Huberdeau
3 defenses : Doughty, Pietrangelo, Hedman
2 goalies : Rask and Quick

So my question : i must keep 4 from these following players. (I am looking for both short term and long term, which complicate my though process a little) (and no trade possible at this point).

Elias Lindholm
Mikkel Boedker
Ryan Kesler
Nick Bonino
Justin Faulk
Cam Ward

Thanks

[Excelsior]

Carter Ashton- how long before he starts putting up 40+ pts?

30 team points only league. My criteria to be main roster worthy is minimum 40pts, but I can keep him on my farm team for another season.

[Dobber]

Love these threads.

For the league in my sig,

Do you think my Gs will be ok heading into next year? Where do you see Miller landing?

Should I be worried about Buff possibly losing D eligibility?? Would you explore what kind of return you could get for him? (Say Krejci and jurco/morin)
Niemi, Miller, Holtby, Gibson, Backstrom, Khudobin

Yes, those six goalis should combine to be okay. Holtby and Niemi is a fine 1-2 and Miller as a 3 is great
Buff will be D eligible next year I'm certain, all leagues

As much as a team like VAN or CGY would need a Miller, I get the sense that they will roll with what they have (CGY will go after a backup, but I think they like Ramo and want to put their faith behind him). I think Miller will find getting a job harder than he expects. But I wonder if MIN would be a good fit.

[Dobber]

It appears that the 2014 Draft Q&A is no longer active / fielding questions, so I'll get your take on this question:

Dobber, I own the 2nd, 3rd, and 11th picks in the first round of my draft coming up on June 5th. The league is a standard multi-cat + FW, Hits, BLKs. I'm almost positive that one of the Sams will be drafted first overall, so I'll be selecting the other Sam with the 2nd pick. I'm just not sure where I should go from there. I really like Draisaitl, and in a league with these categories Centers are a bit more valuable; however, guys like Nylander and Ehlers are REALLY intriguing with their offensive upside.

Assuming no glaring deficiencies at any particular position, who would you select at #3 overall in my spot? Also, with respect to the 11th pick: do you think that's too high to pick a guy like Kevin Fiala? Or would Virtanen be a better selection if he were available? THANKS SO MUCH for doing this, Dobbs. We all really appreciate this.

As I put in the Prospects Report, I would take Draisaitl over Reinhart even. Let alone third overall. Can you get Nylander at 11? That would be a score. I have Fiala ranked 11, so I assume with the 11th pick you can get a guy in my Top 10 since everyone has different opinions and probably only six of my first 10 will actually be gone in the first 10.

[Dobber]

Which two out of these three prospects would you keep for next year: Elias Lindholm, Nick Bjugstad, and Nikita Kucherov

16 team Roto H2H League
G, A, FOW, H+B, PIM, PPP, GWG, SOG, W, Sv%, GAA

I would keep Kucherov and Lindholm over Bjugstad. Kucherov is the biggest risk, but I like more risk for more upside

[Dobber]

Hi Dobber,

Points only keeper league:

1-Please rank: Jurco, Domi, Gaudreau and Trocheck

2-3YP for Edler?

3- Do you really think A.Duclair would be a top prospect if he was available in this year draft?

Thanks for your help!

1. Great list. Domi, Gaudreau, Jurco, Trocheck would be my order, but that by no means belittles Trocheck. I like all these guys
2. Haha you just want to know if he's a permanent bust! I'm going forward with the idea that he'll get hurt each year and play maybe 70-73 games, and produce in the low 40s
3. Absolutely. I think he'd be in the Top 10 for sure, and maybe as high as 5

[Slow Train]

Hey Dobber. Thanks for this.

Wondering how you rank my D's. I would like to move the least valuable. I am thinking it is: Karlsson, Subban, OEL, Green, McDonagh, Carlson although I would love to hear your opinion.

Also, what are your thoughts on Lehner. How long until he owns the job in OTT outright? I have one remaining keeper slot, but I am not sure whether or not to dedicate it to him. Is he still considered an elite, or potentially elite, goalie?

Thanks