Ovechkin - does he ever score 50 again?

[Darren_Kennedy]

I don't mean to be an alarmist. Heck he might score 50 five more times.

The question is being asked because I remember how quickly goal scoring can change as players near 30 (Kovalchuk, Heately...etc). OV is arguably the best scorer of his generation so perhaps he is immune. But the arrival of Trotz has me thinking, is OV likely to be in the 40s from here on out?

[The Comish]

Good question Darren. For me, a lot of it depends on his PP production and then of course his Center.

I say he nets 50 and threatens +50 lol!

[Atomic Wedgy]

Talk about freaking out for no reason... I mean really, dropped 4 acid, freaking out. Below are lists of players that have scored more goals than AO.

Over the last three years total goals: ... ... no one
Last year: ... no one.
The year before that: ........ no one.

The guy scores goals. Its what he does and he is one of the best all time goal scorers, ever.

[havanablast21]

Yes...because Oates and Bruce before him were the reason for Ovie's scoring prowess.

I kinda don't think Ovie's sustained or diminished scoring (aka natural elite abilities) will be impacted by anyone other than Ovie himself.

Would Trotz to Pitt Demand the question..." Will Sid ever hit 100 + points again?"

Trotz worked his system with who he had. He never had an Ovie, Backstrom or, do I dare to say...kuz.

[Big Baby]

I have to say no on this one. Ovechkin is slowing down and his #'s have been declining. He had 51 this and it was his worst defensive season yet (-34 ). Trotz won't turn Ovi into a dud, but he will make him accountable for his horrid play in his own zone. I think something more like 40 goals and 35 assists is more reasonable. If anything was clear from the press conference yesterday, it that they're trying to push the idea of a team game. Everyone is accountable. And your best players have to step up and be your identity. Trotz's teams in Nashville always had one identity, defense. So the core of this team, Ovi, Bax, Carlson and Holtby will set the tone. If they don't buy in, this thing won't work. I think they find an immediate balance of O and D and this team is going to be scorching next season.

[butch]

Ovey will still score - the more interesting storyline is how Trotz transitions from a defensive minded lineup to one with some offensive punch

[Pengwin7]

It's a good question... I'll say no, he won't ever score 50 goals again.

I rag on Ovechkin a lot... but I think it's warranted.
His Even-Strength Point (ESP) scoring is on the decline.

We have to remember that when he was churning out 50 goals consistently, he was playing with the likes of Semin AND Mike Green at the peaks of their careers.

And we think that because he scored 51 goals this year... that's he's back.
Well, let's look at how he scored those 51 goals this year.

Even Strength Goals = 27
Power Play Goals = 24

Is the ESG repeatable? I say yes. Even though his ESP is declining, I still think he can score 27 ESG. He paced for 27 in '12-'13. He paced for 26 in '11-'12. He paced for 26 in '10-'11.
Is the PPG repeatable? I say no. Ovechkin's PP goal-scoring this year was incredible. Everything seemed to find the back of the net and (from what I saw), Ovechkin ripping shots was the default WAS PP strategy for the entire year.

But guess what... 24 PPG was a new career high... even for Ovechkin!
That's right... even Ovechkin had never touched 24 PPG before... 22, 21, 19, 16, 16, 13, 13, 7. Those are his years of PPG.

To put this in perspective... the 2nd highest PPG guy in the NHL had... 16 (Joe Pavelski).
In 2011-2012, the highest guy in the league had... 18 (James Neal).


Now - unlike sports like, say, Major League Baseball... I do not believe that NHL hockey teams are so deep in pocket that they hire statistical analysts & scouts to target opposing teams and then push a strategy change onto on-ice practices.
Washington, though, has one of the more structured power-plays in the NHL: feed Ovechkin, Ovechkin take slap-shot.
Very, very consistent.
Some people, like the writer of this article, believe that Power-Play technique is gold and that Washington shall keep going to it.
Others (pointing to myself) believe that other NHL teams will buckle down in the off-season to identify trends in opponents and hammer down on them.

What I'm saying:
Washington's PP was largely effective due to their strategy of going to Ovechkin's slapshot - and OV scored 24 PPG.
But if you look at the NHL's snipers in the past... guys haven't repeated that BIG PPG year.

Steven Stamkos, for example, had 24 PPG in 2009-2010. His highest since then... just 17 PPG.
Teemu Selanne, for example, had 25 PPG in both 1998-1999 AND in 2006-2007 (and 24 PPG in his 1992-1993 rookie year)... but look to either side of those years... just a high of 18.
Ilya Kovalchuk, for example, had 27 PPG in 2005-2006. His next highest season... just 18 PPG.

These are ELITE snipers... and they are evidence that PPG totals are volatile... changing yearly... with a high that often can't be repeated any time soon.


Going forward - I expect Ovechkin to continue to pump out his 23-28 ESG.
But, I think more realistically, on the powerplay he'll be more at 18-22 PPG.

So... the 50+ PPG is only likely to happen if he hits the high-end of BOTH ranges.
Couple that with the fact that he does seem to be missing a handful of games every year... he IS a big guy (6'-3", 230 lbs)... and big snipers ARE known for breaking down with age. (Good point by Kennedy)

So... IMO... Ovechkin's odds of putting up 50+ PPG... are approaching similar odds to throwing a pair of 6s.

[horrorfan]

It's a good question... I'll say no, he won't ever score 50 goals again.

Good points, but just to annoy you his shortened season production would have given him 26 PPG (assuming 78 games played - his average over the last few years). So that w/could have been two years in a row of that goal production on the power play.

(that's all I've got, carry on).

[Pengwin7]

Good points, but just to annoy you his shortened season production would have given him 26 PPG (assuming 78 games played - his average over the last few years). So that w/could have been two years in a row of that goal production on the power play.

That's fair.
I think the Oates system of making Ovechkin the PP-focus can be shown to go back to the shortened season (where the East only played within the East and teams had almost no-prep time to get ready + packed schedule = no time for opposition scouting).
Then teams go into this season (cross-over play) and the East isn't really gearing up for the West... or vice-versa.
My way of saying... it's a bit of an outlier... with the shortened season (and I've made this same case re: Goalie Back-Ups & Starting Goalie reduced GP).

Getting back to OV and the current state of the Caps.
Of course... Oates is now gone.
And I believe that a primary reason for the Caps failing (& Ovechkin's awful plus minus) is that they became known as a one-trick-pony.

Statistics (and I hate to say this) can be deceiving as "actual NHL worth" goes.
If a team consistently goes towards one player for their offense, he should have incredible numbers... but it doesn't necessarily help the team as a whole.

Constantly feeding Ovechkin on the PP becomes... routine.
And that routine extends into other facets of hockey... like even-strength.
So you get guys like Backstrom and Johansson and they get into the offensive zone, cycling the puck, and they're looking for Ovechkin.
And Ovechkin is drifting to the OV-spot... because he knows he can score goals there.

But... it's different 5-on-5... he's covered... and that pass will be picked off.
And the other team zips the other way...
and...
MINUS for the 5 Capitals on the ice.

While I liked Oates as a player... hockey is not a sport where players & team strategies can afford to become predictable.
And this is what the Capitals have become... predictable.

Trotz has to find a way to change all this.
And while I don't think there will be an effect on Ovechkin's even-strength goal production... I do believe the Caps need to move the puck more.
This extends to the power-play.

It's the same reason passing-football teams still run the ball, even when their RBs stink.
They have to change it up and keep the opposition on their toes.

...
Anyways, this is a long way of making my point of why PPG scoring isn't easily repeated.
Because a focal scorer on a PP becomes predictable... and hockey teams don't function well this way.

[Atomic Wedgy]

I'm reading that you think one of the best goal scorers ever to lace up skates is not an adaptable player. Not creative enough to figure out a new way to score goals. That is a pretty bold statement. Much bolder than saying he'll win the Rocket Richard again, which he did the last two years in a row and five times in nine years total.

[wendelclark17]

Some very good points made by P7.

However, I think Trotz will be good for Washington. I think that Ovie can get back up near 30 EV goals, and 20+ PP goals are almost a given, so Yes I do think he might hit 50 again at some point in the next few years.

[Axeman33]

I'm not going to lie, I was quite surprised when he hit it this past year the way his career was rolling.

[marshal]

I think he will and if he does next season, it probably won't be the last time. The Caps rely so much on his goal-scoring, if management seriously wants to "refresh" and believes it can compete for the Cup, they're gonna need Ovechkin to do what he does best. I don't think Trotz will have too much of a leash on him at all.

[mister_mcgoo]

Of course he can, his career average is 51 per season...that's just ridiculous, to suggest he can't do it again would make no sense, especially with a better coach designing the gameplan

[newfcollins]

I vote for yes, if for no other reason than I own him in my keeper pool.

Actually, there are many reasons. My main reasoning is I think he'll benefit from having a consistent offensive player on the other wing. Oates would have Ovi and Backstrom play with Johansson for a good chunk of the year, but you know what winger played with Backstrom and Ovi the second most at even strength? Erat. Then Laich. Then it was Ovi, Johansson and Beagle. Then Ovi, Grabovski and Fehr.

I think you'll see Trotz put a more-offensive minded player on the other wing on a regular basis, which will help Ovi score more, especially at even strength.