Austin, Blackmon, Shorts, Stills or White to keep?

[tww9]

It's a 16 team keeper league, you keep 6 players. League never ends.

We start 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR, RB or TE), K, D/ST. 0.5 PPR otherwise standard scoring.

Here's my team.

Definitely keeping
Andrew Luck
Ben Tate
Trent Richardson
Randall Cobb

Likely keeping
Christine Michael

Potentially keeping
Bernard Pierce
Justin Blackmon
Roddy White
Tavon Austin
Cecil Shorts
Kenny Stills
Kyle Rudolph

Keep in mind, running back is spread VERY thin and pretty much any starting RB will be kept and RBs with talent/potential will probably be top 2 round picks. I'm highly likely going to keep Christine Michael just to have the potential for a stud RB and I would probably stash him for next year as worst case. Blackmon is a keeper if he's reinstated, but I'm doubtful. Austin is likely my last keeper since White is pretty close to finished and Pierce is only useful if Rice goes down. I have the second overall pick and I'm probably targeting Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins if they both go to decent teams. It's a non-snake draft so I also have the second pick in the second round.

Who should my last keeper be?

[rataylor22]

Pierce for me. Austin is small and not likely to be a good NFL player

[TheWhale]

It's a 16 team keeper league, you keep 6 players. League never ends.

We start 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR, RB or TE), K, D/ST. 0.5 PPR otherwise standard scoring.

Here's my team.

Definitely keeping
Andrew Luck
Ben Tate
Trent Richardson
Randall Cobb

Likely keeping
Christine Michael

Potentially keeping
Bernard Pierce
Justin Blackmon
Roddy White
Tavon Austin
Cecil Shorts
Kenny Stills
Kyle Rudolph

Keep in mind, running back is spread VERY thin and pretty much any starting RB will be kept and RBs with talent/potential will probably be top 2 round picks. I'm highly likely going to keep Christine Michael just to have the potential for a stud RB and I would probably stash him for next year as worst case. Blackmon is a keeper if he's reinstated, but I'm doubtful. Austin is likely my last keeper since White is pretty close to finished and Pierce is only useful if Rice goes down. I have the second overall pick and I'm probably targeting Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins if they both go to decent teams. It's a non-snake draft so I also have the second pick in the second round.

Who should my last keeper be?

It really depends on how the draft plays out. But as of now, I'd be keeping Roddy

[mounD]

Since you're already reasonably strong at RB (Tate / Richardson), I would be looking at a WR here. All else being equal I would rank them:

Blackmon
White
Shorts
Austin

If Blackmon's suspension is lifted, I would DEFINITELY be keeping that beast, especially in .5 PPR; however, Roddy White is for sure the "safe" play. He's a PPR legend in the modern era, and if you believe his last few weeks are a sign of his health, I would be all over him. He was averaging like 20 FP / game over the last month of the season in PPR formats, that's WR1 production any way you slice it.

All things considered, Blackmon's situation is probably going to be very cloudy, so it looks like Roddy White is your guy here. If RBs carry such value in your league, I would look to ship Christine Michael and Bernard Pierce to an owner who is, perhaps, even thinner at the RB position. Cheers.

[curtisn16]

Blackmon (suspension pending)
Austin
Shorts
White (Old Balls)
Stills

[tww9]

Thanks for the replies guys. After the draft and how things are shaking out, I'm thinking of keeping Michael and Pierce as my last 2 keepers.

Andrew Luck
Randall Cobb
Trent Richardson
Ben Tate
Christine Michael
Bernard Pierce

Then with the #2 pick, draft Watkins or Evans. With the #2 pick in the second round I can probably get a decent WR as well or target a young TE like Ladarius Green (I'm really high on him.)

With the news that Michael is in a committee and could very well take over the #1 job this year, I think he's a lock to keep. With Ray Rice likely to be suspended for 4-6 games, Pierce has legitimate value (even if it's for 1/3 of a season as a bell cow) and can potentially take that opportunity and not look back. I would pretty much be set at RB and won't have to reach for junky handcuff type guesses just because that's all that's left. I think I would also look at trading Tate early in the season. He is in a great situation to start, but has 2 rookies breathing down his back and an injury history.

[TheWhale]

Thanks for the replies guys. After the draft and how things are shaking out, I'm thinking of keeping Michael and Pierce as my last 2 keepers.

Andrew Luck
Randall Cobb
Trent Richardson
Ben Tate
Christine Michael
Bernard Pierce

Then with the #2 pick, draft Watkins or Evans. With the #2 pick in the second round I can probably get a decent WR as well or target a young TE like Ladarius Green (I'm really high on him.)

With the news that Michael is in a committee and could very well take over the #1 job this year, I think he's a lock to keep. With Ray Rice likely to be suspended for 4-6 games, Pierce has legitimate value (even if it's for 1/3 of a season as a bell cow) and can potentially take that opportunity and not look back. I would pretty much be set at RB and won't have to reach for junky handcuff type guesses just because that's all that's left. I think I would also look at trading Tate early in the season. He is in a great situation to start, but has 2 rookies breathing down his back and an injury history.

If I was putting myself in a position to compete this year, I would keep: Luck, Cobb, Tate, trich (gulp), white, pierce.

Jax is moving on from Blackmon, dump him.

Pierce will get the chance early on to run away with the lead role in a run friendly offense.

White May be getting older but the guy, in ppr, will still be a top 15 wr. With his injuries behind him and Gonzalez gone, he is primed for a nice bounce back.

Michael is not in a RBBC. If lucky, he will get 100 touches this year. If the stars align, lynch gets hurt and he may take over. But he still has to beat out Turbin, which he failed to do last year. With only 6keepers, you are wasting a slot on a lottery ticket. Try dangling his name in trade talks and upgrade a keeper spot.

[tww9]

I have an offer for Bernard Pierce (and my lowest pick which is a 7th) for a third round pick. I pushed for a Second and he won't go for it. I don't really feel Pierce for a 3rd is very good value, but if I do this, I would be able to keep Roddy White (I'm planning on keeping Michael... I just know I'll be kicking myself if I don't and he explodes.)

So should I
1) Keep Pierce and 7th and throw White back
2) Keep White, get 3rd and trade Pierce

Based on the lottery system, I'll be picking between 1-6 and have the second most ballots in the draw. So right now I'm hoping for Watkins, Evans or Sankey. Guys like Desean Jackson and TY Hilton might also get thrown back.

[mounD]

I'd seriously reconsider keeping Michael over White. Try dangling Michael (etc.), get some picks, and put yourself in a really good position with Luck/Cobb/TRich/White/Tate/Pierce.

[rataylor22]

I'd do the trade for Pierce. You seem set on Michael so I won't try to talk you out of that. I'm also of the group that Lynch is close to done, he's got a lot of hard miles, and Evan Silva who I trust a lot is all over CM. Trade Pierce, get your third, and then keep

Luck/TRich/Tate/Michael/Cobb/White

[tww9]

Yeah, I haven't really heard too much interest on the Michael front. I'll contact the Lynch owner and see where he stands. I know this is a terrible attitude, but one guy is absolutely stacked this year so not sure there's much chance unless he gets hit with big injuries. He has P Manning, Charles, McCoy, Demariyus, Gerhart, Terrance Williams. I figure the only way to compete with a team like that is loading up on RBs with potential to break out huge, have Cobb and Luck as a base and then fill WR2, Flex, TE in the draft. I always want to be competitive, but after this year, I don't think White helps me and realistically, my team is built for next year.

[tww9]

Also, what are people's opinions of Pierce? He had a bad year last year, but is he actually talented enough to steal the job from Rice? Can he be a top 10 RB in the right situation (running offense, 3 down bell cow)?

[mounD]

Yeah, I haven't really heard too much interest on the Michael front. I'll contact the Lynch owner and see where he stands. I know this is a terrible attitude, but one guy is absolutely stacked this year so not sure there's much chance unless he gets hit with big injuries. He has P Manning, Charles, McCoy, Demariyus, Gerhart, Terrance Williams. I figure the only way to compete with a team like that is loading up on RBs with potential to break out huge, have Cobb and Luck as a base and then fill WR2, Flex, TE in the draft. I always want to be competitive, but after this year, I don't think White helps me and realistically, my team is built for next year.

Jamaal Charles is overrated, and that team really only has 4 "viable" keepers IMO. You've got some lottery tickets, but your best bet is to take the gambles during the draft and keep "safer" players in Shorts/White, etc. You can realistically fill out your WR corps, and still keep TRich and Tate/Pierce. I would just be nervous keeping so many questionable RBs who could absolutely tank your chances next season.

[TheWhale]

Also, what are people's opinions of Pierce? He had a bad year last year, but is he actually talented enough to steal the job from Rice? Can he be a top 10 RB in the right situation (running offense, 3 down bell cow)?

Any back in the right situation can be top 10. Pierce had a really good year his rookie season and followed it up with a bad one. Same as Rice. Was it the o-line, scheme, etc? Going into this season the ravens backfield is being undervalued because of toss questions.

Here's my guess for how it shakes out. Rice is most likely going to miss some time to start the year. Personally, I think he'll rebound when he does return and be the guy the rest of the way. But while Rice is serving his suspension (4-6 games is the rumour) Pierce will be the feature back in a Kubiak offense. RB2 numbers for about 50% of your fantasy regular season.

[tww9]

That sounds about right with him being RB2 until Rice comes back and then probably flex value at best unless he really takes off during the first half (Ravens have a poor strength of schedule for RB's in the first half though).

I'm likely trading Pierce, 6th and maybe 5th for a 3rd and 4th. Realistically the draft picks don't have a ton of value in my league, but I didn't have a 3rd, so I wanted that.

Also, unlikely to happen, but I was messing around with the idea of trading Luck and Tate for Jimmy Graham. Sounds crazy initially, but here's my reasoning. QB position is incredibly deep and I can likely draft Manziel and Bridgewater and have one as a keeper next year. Tate is unlikely to be a keeper next year and Graham is one of a kind at TE. Cons are that Luck could be huge for 10 years while Graham might only play in his prime for 5 more years. Would mean I need to make a big push within that time.