Who's the next Big D Man?

[2014olympicgold]

The best “carbon Copy” of Karlsson is prolly Rielly. However it’s so hard to say if Reilly will ever go to 70 points. It’s too hard to predict D’s max output. Karlsson when he played for his Sweden team before being drafted had 10pts in 45 games. Then his rookie year had 26pts in 60 games. Then 45 pts in 75 games, then 78 pts in 81 games. His shots per yr jumped a lot every yr also (112, 182, and 261).

Morgan Rielly in his yr with the Marlies had 3 points in 14 games and 40 shots. Morgan Rielly however in his rookie yr in Toronto had 27 points in 73 games and 96 shots. That looks awfully similar to Karlsson…. Year before in the NHL, having not very productive years, then hitting the NHL and playing in a majority of the games and putting up like 2 shots a game and 20+points….

Throwing out stats and history, Rielly moves just like Karlsson, scanning the ice while smoothly skating up. They have that extra gear they like to downshift into and blow past people. The calmness in their games is similar (even though I wasn’t calm the way Rielly played a lot of the time). If Toronto gets the right coach in, assuming Carlyle is gone; Morgan Rielly can be given the reigns of a slow D core. It was pretty obvious seeing the difference in his and Gardiner’s game when they were let off the chain.

[Big Ev]

Talent is talent. I'm sure legit arguments could be made that at this point Ottawa is just as poisonous an environment as Toronto is and it doesn't seem to impede Karlsson.

I'm not suggesting that Reilly has anywhere near Karlssons upside but I do feel that out of all the young NHL D mentioned in this thread he has the best shot at being in the tier below Karlsson in terms of offensive production.

Welll I think he gets overrated in terms of his talent, don't see that kind of upside myself, but Toronto isn't a good environment because of the pressure, not because of the success of the team. Luke Schenn is a good example.

Again, Not talking about the leafs being winners or losers. It's about the pressure. Dobber, in Chicago and Pittsburgh they didn't care about hockey as much and didn't expect their player to win a Norris.

[rainydrinkwater]

Welll I think he gets overrated in terms of his talent, don't see that kind of upside myself, but Toronto isn't a good environment because of the pressure, not because of the success of the team. Luke Schenn is a good example.

Again, Not talking about the leafs being winners or losers. It's about the pressure. Dobber, in Chicago and Pittsburgh they didn't care about hockey as much and didn't expect their player to win a Norris.

Ok. The pressure angle makes more sense than what I originally understood from your post. Can't argue with that.

I do think his potential to be an offensive stalwart is as good as any young D around his age. I also agree with most posters that if we are waiting for Karlsson 2.0 it isn't here and may take many years to arrive but Reilly IMO has the tools to be amongst the very best of the next tier of offensive defenseman

[Gentle Yeti]

The thread is about "The next big D-man".
And the OP's comment talks about Karlsson and the next guy that might reap big rewards.

He's looking for a short list of potential future elite D-men... maybe not Karlsson-ish... but with that sort of top level production.

So... while there is indeed value to some in "longer lists" - that's not what the thread is about.
When the thread says "Who's the next big D man"... we should all try to keep our responses in line with the want of the OP.

I'm not really too keen on your "disagreement", when I'm actually attending to the point of the thread and you are not.

As the OP, I couldn't be happier with this thread. Most of the insight has been very valuable. It's given me and other newbies on the forum some universally-owned guys to target in a fair priced trade (Jones, Rielly, Trouba, Hamilton, etc) who could take off and some other guys who I've never heard of that I will be looking to draft (Clendening, Nurse, Risto, Pouliot, Gostis-something) etc.

It appears that it's hard to come to a consensus who the best next guy will be, which is what makes fantasy hockey so glorious. I'll probably start picking the brains of say the Jones and Rielly owners now, before the price gets some market adjustment!

[havanablast21]

phaneuf for thornton!

OH MAN! one can only hope!

[havanablast21]

Just landed Rielly for Gaborik.

I'm excited for the move considering Gabby wasn't a keeper for me. I really like how my 4 D look going into next season. And with Karlsson, OEL and Burns...I think I have the extra oomph to allow to allow for some Growth in Rielly.

Having said all that...I do hate owning leafs! So maybe I've doomed Rielly having acquired him. if SO...I appologize now!

[theIceWookie]

Welll I think he gets overrated in terms of his talent, don't see that kind of upside myself, but Toronto isn't a good environment because of the pressure, not because of the success of the team. Luke Schenn is a good example.

Again, Not talking about the leafs being winners or losers. It's about the pressure. Dobber, in Chicago and Pittsburgh they didn't care about hockey as much and didn't expect their player to win a Norris.

Some people can't hack it but that isn't an absolute truth.

Everyone said Kessel couldn't handle the pressure in Toronto and now years later he's put up more points in the past three seasons than anyone not named Giroux.

Rielly has the demeanor and the mental fortitude to survive a pressure environment like Toronto. Doubt it would be an issue.

Also the Schenn example isn't really explained by just pressure. It was so much more than that

[fungchen3]

Some people can't hack it but that isn't an absolute truth.

Everyone said Kessel couldn't handle the pressure in Toronto and now years later he's put up more points in the past three seasons than anyone not named Giroux.

Rielly has the demeanor and the mental fortitude to survive a pressure environment like Toronto. Doubt it would be an issue.

Also the Schenn example isn't really explained by just pressure. It was so much more than that

Yeah, I don't buy the whole Toronto pressure thing as an absolute either. Big market pressure is too burdensome for the weak - the strong survive and persevere. Kessel is an example, JVR is another. Schenn was mishandled from the beginning and that could have happened in any city. Since he's been on the Flyers, Schenn's been just "ok" as well, he's just not a great player, and nothing close to the "Adam Foote" comparisons that labelled him on draft day.

Toronto is not superstar kryptonite by any means. If Erik Karlsson or Sidney Crosby were traded to Toronto tomorrow they would still be 75 and 120 point threats. If Rielly doesn't end up a superstar and pans out to be a 40 point player it will be his fault, not the Leafs.

[ccsitdown]

As the OP, I couldn't be happier with this thread. Most of the insight has been very valuable. It's given me and other newbies on the forum some universally-owned guys to target in a fair priced trade (Jones, Rielly, Trouba, Hamilton, etc) who could take off and some other guys who I've never heard of that I will be looking to draft (Clendening, Nurse, Risto, Pouliot, Gostis-something) etc.

It appears that it's hard to come to a consensus who the best next guy will be, which is what makes fantasy hockey so glorious. I'll probably start picking the brains of say the Jones and Rielly owners now, before the price gets some market adjustment!

Agreed, lots of good names in this thread.

My only 2c to add kind of repeats Pengwin a little bit. I'm in a variety of different leagues with different sizes and different stats, but my D is an important part of each of my teams. Still, my gut reaction to this thread was simple - it's great to try to figure out who the next Karlsson is, but you've got to keep in mind how rare his numbers are. Seriously, he's kind of like the Highlander... Don't put so much pressure on yourself. Instead, think proactively but reasonably - how can I find the next Shea Weber, Niklas Kronwall, Kevin Shattenkirk or James Wisniewski? Cuz that's the stuff that wins fantasy - cuz you CAN find it. Seriously, aim for the 45-point year, and if Weber coughs up a 56 or Keith has one of his 60+ years, consider it gravy.

I also agree with some of the other posters about how difficult it is to develop D. I'm sitting on Trouba and Dumba in one pool - they were my top picks two years in a row. We'll see, looks like Trouba will hit, Dumba I should know by the time I'm 40. Still, the only method I can suggest is to draft slightly older D prospects - give them the head start. There are always a bunch who are skipped every year (with the exception of my very deep leagues), and grabbing them after you've been able to keep tabs on their development for a year or two is a good way to find one who is staying on the right path. I mean, if you want to grab a Reilly or a Jones, you're going to have to draft them fairly high as their hype is off the charts to begin with, but after the big names, D prospects can be a real crap shoot. For instance, I took Trouba the year after his draft in one $ league, because in his draft year he was tabbed as the "defensively safe" one. This year, names like Theodore, Pulock, Morrissey, Maatta, Lindholm, and later picks from the year before like Sproul and Clendening are available in one or another of the pools, as space is limited. If that's the case, I'm just saying best to look a bit older, as waiting minimum three years for most of these guys is frustrating.

Good luck loading up!

[Ed.]

Good point ccsitdown. A lot of times D men who were taken a bit later, or who had doubts cast upon their upside when drafted, start to show a lot more promise a year or two or three later. There are often some great freebies to be had in leagues where those guys (Barrie, Maatta, Clendening, Gostisbehere, Brodie, etc.) were not picked up in their draft year or were picked up and later dropped before their hype really started to build. Justin Schultz was a guy who I think a lot of people kind of forgot about, because he was a second round pick who played three years of college hockey before making headlines with his free agency stunt. I was playing in three leagues at the point where he signed with Edmonton, all of them fairly deep (240-360 owned prospects) and he was available for free in two of them.

[0PucksGiven]

Guillaume Gélinas
Brenden Miller
Shea Theodore
T.J. Brennan
Elgin Reid


For the future.....

[Ed.]

Brenden Miller

32 points in 63 OHL games at age 19, and undrafted. What in particular gives you hope for him? Elgin Reid...Decent numbers in the ECHL, but what do you see beyond that?

[0PucksGiven]

32 points in 63 OHL games at age 19, and undrafted. What in particular gives you hope for him? Elgin Reid...Decent numbers in the ECHL, but what do you see beyond that?

Brendan Miller has taken it to another level in the playoffs - 19 games 18 points


I also like Blake Kessel form the Echl

[Ed.]

Interesting...Thanks for the reply.

[Rrabbit]

Noticed no one's mentioned Tyson Barrie yet. He might have the biggest upside of them all. The way he plays, he could definitely turn into Mike Green when he was still a fantasy stud.

I'm a big Colorado fan and really like Barrie, but he doesn't have anywhere near Green's wrist shot and no slapshot to speak of.