Who's the next Big D Man?

[Zorro]

That's not correct actually. Not to honk my own horn, but before Karlsson was "Karlsson" I was telling everyone he had the makings of an elite, offensive 70 point (yes 70!!) defenseman and my prediction received mixed reviews. A couple people agreed but most said that was way too lofty. Sometimes you get that perfect feel for a player based on instinct, talent evaluation, opportunity, etc. My Spidey Sense was tingling with Karlsson from day one. Morgan Rielly was the next one - I think he will be a 55-65 point DMan in the near future.

Please tell me fungchen,5 YOUNG D-men you are warm and fuzzy about for the next couple years.. If you have to PM me then so be it! ! Who makes the biggest impact in 2-3 years..??

If you did predict Karlsson's future, then I applaud you my friend!!

[Big Ev]

Even if Reilly has that kind of upside, he won't hit it in Toronto. Just not a good environment.

[Ed.]

I disagree Pengwin. I see value in the longer lists. Because D men are such a crap shoot, having an idea of multiple guys who have an outside chance of turning something can be very helpful in deep leagues, where people can afford to stash multiple guys, and where all the big names were taken long ago. In leagues that incorporate owned prospect pools of 350 or more, the reality is that a lot of those guys are going nowhere, whether they are forwards, D, or goalies. In leagues like that, I'd rather fill my last few prospect spots with guys who are a long shot to be the next big D man, or the next KHL superstar forward than guys who are locks to be NHLers who won't be quite good enough to ever crack my main roster. Reading a couple of endorsements for Gostisbehere, who is probably available in most leagues is a lot more useful to me than reading endorsements for Seth Jones, who is universally owned, and almost certain to be hugely overpriced.

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Even if Reilly has that kind of upside, he won't hit it in Toronto. Just not a good environment.

That environment may look a lot different before the summer is over.

[fungchen3]

Even if Reilly has that kind of upside, he won't hit it in Toronto. Just not a good environment.

There's plenty of time for things to change - new management, philosophy, etc. Not too too long ago the Leafs D was lethal offensively - McCabe and Kaberle were nasty. Rielly has all the tools to be a fantasy monster.

[fungchen3]

Please tell me fungchen,5 YOUNG D-men you are warm and fuzzy about for the next couple years.. If you have to PM me then so be it! ! Who makes the biggest impact in 2-3 years..??

If you did predict Karlsson's future, then I applaud you my friend!!

Well, none of them excite me quite AS much as Karlsson did but these are the 5 that I covet big-time (in order):

1. Seth Jones - Skating, size, shot, world class offensive instincts. This kid is the total package. He'll also benefit from playing with Weber. I see his realistic upside around 60-70 points (70 if everything goes perfectly in a career year). The only thing holding him back from being a machine is the Preds unimpressive group of forwards. When he peaks, think the "good" Victor Hedman with more pure offensive talent. That's a scary thought.

2. Morgan Rielly - He is the closest to "Karlsson" with the warm and fuzzies, but he's a tier right below. The only reason I have Seth ahead of him is because Jones is the "safer" option right now because he'll munch crazy minutes and play in all situations that should allow him to prosper. Jones also has a bomb so he'll score more goals and benefit from rebound assists eventually. I fully expect Rielly's prime years to be like Duncan Keith when he's on (60-65 points).

3. Dougie Hamilton - Very similar to Seth Jones actually. Impressive size, skating and offensive tools. Once Chara's minutes are reduced a notch, I see Hamilton and Krug forming a lethal PP duo. I think Hamilton puts up Chara-like numbers but better - realistic upside of 55-65 points but should fall in the 50s with more regularity.

4. Justin Schultz - I know some people are down on him, probably because they were expecting miracles right out of the gate. I'm a firm believer in Schultz and think he will deliver. 50-60 for him in his prime... maybe more in a career year if the Oilers explode.

5. Jacob Trouba - All-purpose stud who continues to get better and better. Already reminds me of Shea Weber light. Great shot, good vision, awesome instincts and poise. He's already stolen minutes and points from the likes of Byfuglien and Enstrom which is no small feat at his age. I think he's going to end up a hybrid of Weber, Suter and Jack Johnson - I see a little style of each in his game. He'll start putting up OEL like numbers soon and eventually Pietrangelo/Subban points (between 48-60).

Again, none of these guys "should" be 70+ pointers. Karlsson is a special talent - I insist he'll break 80-85 within the next few seasons. But these kids should land in in the next tier and are future Weber, Keith, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Yandle Hedman type talents IMO.

[Pengwin7]

I disagree Pengwin. I see value in the longer lists.

The thread is about "The next big D-man".
And the OP's comment talks about Karlsson and the next guy that might reap big rewards.

He's looking for a short list of potential future elite D-men... maybe not Karlsson-ish... but with that sort of top level production.

So... while there is indeed value to some in "longer lists" - that's not what the thread is about.
When the thread says "Who's the next big D man"... we should all try to keep our responses in line with the want of the OP.

I'm not really too keen on your "disagreement", when I'm actually attending to the point of the thread and you are not.

[rainydrinkwater]

Even if Reilly has that kind of upside, he won't hit it in Toronto. Just not a good environment.

Talent is talent. I'm sure legit arguments could be made that at this point Ottawa is just as poisonous an environment as Toronto is and it doesn't seem to impede Karlsson.

I'm not suggesting that Reilly has anywhere near Karlssons upside but I do feel that out of all the young NHL D mentioned in this thread he has the best shot at being in the tier below Karlsson in terms of offensive production.

[Ed.]

The thread is about "The next big D-man".
And the OP's comment talks about Karlsson and the next guy that might reap big rewards.

He's looking for a short list of potential future elite D-men... maybe not Karlsson-ish... but with that sort of top level production.

So... while there is indeed value to some in "longer lists" - that's not what the thread is about.
When the thread says "Who's the next big D man"... we should all try to keep our responses in line with the want of the OP.

I'm not really too keen on your "disagreement", when I'm actually attending to the point of the thread and you are not.

But if the responses are along the lines of "These are some guys who have a very outside chance of being the next big D man" and we know that a lot of high-end D men haven't always come from obvious places (Karlsson was drafted behind lesser guys. Kaberle was a late, late pick. 16 D were drafted before Subban.) then I see nothing wrong with multiple possibilities. The reality is, if there is another Karlsson, or another Subban out there, there is a fair chance he's somewhat under the radar right now. Therefore, lists of guys with an outside shot should have value in this discussion.

[havanablast21]

Even if Reilly has that kind of upside, he won't hit it in Toronto. Just not a good environment.

Says Big EV with sens coloured glasses!

[Dobber]

Even if Reilly has that kind of upside, he won't hit it in Toronto. Just not a good environment.

I completely agree with the sentiment, however I don't want to speak for a future that is 8 years away. Pittsburgh was pretty toxic when Crosby was 18. Chicago was so horrible they were barely filling half the stands when Toews and Kane arrived. Not speaking to talent level here, just to how much things can change in a few years

[Dobber]

To play Devil's Advocate in this thread...

I'm really not a fan of the "hype" train with regard to defensemen that are not yet in the NHL.
The jump from juniors to the NHL is obviously huge.
Positionally, I think that making the jump for a junior defenseman is the BIGGEST jump... positionally. (!!!)

And every year, it seems we have these chats.
And every year, (and I don't mean to slam our resident prospect experts... but it will come across this way), I have not seen any across-the-board forum consistency with pegging future defenseman value.

Rundblad
S.Elliott
R.Murphy

Is the jury out on these guys yet?
I've seen them all play at the NHL level and convinced that none of them are 50pt players, nor will they ever be.
But in past years... all have been hyped to the moon on these forums.

Q: Why do we miss the boat on these young defensemen so often?
A: Because the jump to the NHL for a defensemen is unlike the jump for forwards... and we still haven't registered this fact.

The top tier forwards... the community has done a pretty good job (IMO) in identifying them.
With decent consistency, the top tier of forward prospects every year pan out pretty well - as fantasy value goes.


In summary:
(and I don't mean to bash anybody's list of defensemen)...
When somebody asks "Who is the next Big D Man?"... I'd say that, if by Next Big D-man we are talking "50 pt guys"... then I think most people making lists longer than five D are going to hit 1 in 5 guys.
That's not great.
1 in 5.

Anyways - that's my word of caution... because I really do not believe in stashing a ton of D-men in roster spots when the odds of "hitting" is about 1 in 5.
More wise, IMO, is to stash back-up goalies with future value OR prospect forwards with future value... much more likely to pan out.

The Karlsson-owner is always going to make us think - I should've taken a risk on that D-man.
But it's Russian Roulette with prospect defensemen... and throwing out long lists does not hold much value, IMO.
If you are going to name a guy, name one or two.

Well said

[The Hockey Hitman]

Adam Almquist is another one to watch. He's no longer waiver exemept...he'll be in Detroit, claimed on waivers by another team or back in Sweden next year. If it's the former two...could he worth a damn for sure.

[Axeman33]

Even if Reilly has that kind of upside, he won't hit it in Toronto. Just not a good environment.

I agree. Not to mention, as long as Phaneuf is there wasting the prime time PP spot (ya, Rielly may play with him but Dion is the trigger man) there will be less points for him.

No one hits the back of the boards or the glass on the PP as hard as Dion.

[havanablast21]

No one hits the back of the boards or the glass on the PP as hard as Dion.

Can't agree more with this statement. But if he keeps that up...Rielly will be there to creatively dangle the rebounds.
Every Yandle has an OEL emerging on his heels. I'll take that potential in Rielly. I just hope it doesn't tAke TO the same amount of time to trade Phaneuf as it has taken Pheonix to move YAndle.

[JagrBomb]

I agree. Not to mention, as long as Phaneuf is there wasting the prime time PP spot (ya, Rielly may play with him but Dion is the trigger man) there will be less points for him.

No one hits the back of the boards or the glass on the PP as hard as Dion.

phaneuf for thornton!