Who's the next Big D Man?

[Dobber]

Great post, even better discussion

Let's go off the board with guys who haven't even played in the NHL yet. Clendening was a good suggestion. I'd also like to throw Darnell Nurse's hat in the ring

[Top_Shelf]

Clendening is has high offensive upside, prob worth grabbing and sticking on your farm but I've been hearing from a few people that are tuned into Rockford that he is terrible in his own zone and a defensive liability....doesn't bode well for his NHL chances.

[fungchen3]

In NHL:

Rielly
Hamilton
Barrie
Trouba
Krug
Vatanen
Schultz
Maatta
Ristolainen (more like Hedman than Karlsson)

Not in NHL (but drafted):

Pouliot
S.Theodore
Pulock
Gostisbehere
Nurse
Sproul
Matheson

[The Hockey Hitman]

If I had to try to predict a handful of defensemen whose value could go through the roof in the next 12-24 months...my choices would be Tyson Barrie, Morgan Rielly, Derrick Pouliot and of all people...Mark Borowiecki who is on a one way contract this coming season and could be the next Radio Gudas for leagues with PIMs, Hits and Blk shots. Stick tap to mounD for pointing him out to me.

Now for my personal goodie box of potentials...dark horses, some more than others. Some mentioned earlier, some not. If nothing else the guys below you should be keeping a close eye on how heir development goes in the next 12 months in particular.

Shayne Gostisbehere
Ryan Sproul
Slater Koekkoek
John Klingberg
Ville Pokka
Matt Grzelcyk
Mike Reilly

[vic rattlehead]

Nobody has mentioned Seth Jones so far. A simple oversight, or is there something I don't know?

[fungchen3]

Nobody has mentioned Seth Jones so far. A simple oversight, or is there something I don't know?

Complete oversight. He should be towards the top if not AT the top.

[One87]

Perhaps a dark horse no one has mentioned... Marincin

[Oakville Squires]

For guys that have not played in the NHL I really like Morrissey and think he is going to be lights out with Trouba in a few years (kind of like Byfuglien and Enstrom when they were clicking). I also notice no one has mentioned Ekblad who is likely to be the #1 selection this year. Any thoughts on his ceiling?

[theIceWookie]

Seen some nice shout outs for Gostisbehere and Sproul. Both are fantastic selections. Morrisey too. He was basically one half of the Prince Albert Raider's offense this year (the other being Draisaitl).

I want to mention two rather far below the radar guys.

One is Anthony DeAngelo, from the Sarnia Sting. He's the most offensively talented PMD to play in the OHL since Ellis did, but he's probably the biggest boom/bust player in a long time. He's absolutely an offense only guy, and he's had some fairly significant attitude issues this year. If he hits his boom, he could be a Mike Green offensive guy.

The other is Shea Theodore. Remarkably little hype for the guy considering he was one of three dman to be PPG this year in the WHL, the other two being the much more heralded Pouliot and Morrisey. He's got the size to play in the NHL too. And he's in Anaheim's system, a system that has had significant success finding and developing young offensively talented blueliners lately.

[fungchen3]

The other is Shea Theodore. Remarkably little hype for the guy considering he was one of three dman to be PPG this year in the WHL, the other two being the much more heralded Pouliot and Morrisey. He's got the size to play in the NHL too. And he's in Anaheim's system, a system that has had significant success finding and developing young offensively talented blueliners lately.

I mentioned Theodore. He's so under-the-radar around here it's not funny. He could be an offensive star, and like you said he is in the Ducks system. They have a keen eye for puckmoving defensemen - Schultz, Gardiner, Fowler, Vatanen, Lindholm, Theodore, etc.

[Pengwin7]

To play Devil's Advocate in this thread...

I'm really not a fan of the "hype" train with regard to defensemen that are not yet in the NHL.
The jump from juniors to the NHL is obviously huge.
Positionally, I think that making the jump for a junior defenseman is the BIGGEST jump... positionally. (!!!)

And every year, it seems we have these chats.
And every year, (and I don't mean to slam our resident prospect experts... but it will come across this way), I have not seen any across-the-board forum consistency with pegging future defenseman value.

Rundblad
S.Elliott
R.Murphy

Is the jury out on these guys yet?
I've seen them all play at the NHL level and convinced that none of them are 50pt players, nor will they ever be.
But in past years... all have been hyped to the moon on these forums.

Q: Why do we miss the boat on these young defensemen so often?
A: Because the jump to the NHL for a defensemen is unlike the jump for forwards... and we still haven't registered this fact.

The top tier forwards... the community has done a pretty good job (IMO) in identifying them.
With decent consistency, the top tier of forward prospects every year pan out pretty well - as fantasy value goes.


In summary:
(and I don't mean to bash anybody's list of defensemen)...
When somebody asks "Who is the next Big D Man?"... I'd say that, if by Next Big D-man we are talking "50 pt guys"... then I think most people making lists longer than five D are going to hit 1 in 5 guys.
That's not great.
1 in 5.

Anyways - that's my word of caution... because I really do not believe in stashing a ton of D-men in roster spots when the odds of "hitting" is about 1 in 5.
More wise, IMO, is to stash back-up goalies with future value OR prospect forwards with future value... much more likely to pan out.

The Karlsson-owner is always going to make us think - I should've taken a risk on that D-man.
But it's Russian Roulette with prospect defensemen... and throwing out long lists does not hold much value, IMO.
If you are going to name a guy, name one or two.

[Zorro]

Nobody could have predicted Karlsson doing what he is doing in the NHL today.. That is why I believe you should be looking at D-men that have the potential to get 50, and hopefully all the stars align and that player can exceed your expectations and make you look like a genius..

We all know about: Hedman, OEL, Jones, Barrie, Trouba, Hamilton, Reilly, Gardiner, etc, etc....

I think you should start a thread seeing who people prefer between: Pouliot, Morrisey, Nurse, etc, etc....

[fungchen3]

^ Some valid points Pengwin. Predicting stud D futures is the hardest gig in fantasy hockey, yet the challenge is what makes it so rewarding.

I think it is potentially dangerous to latch onto the hype train as well, and we've all been burned. E.Johnson, McBain, Elliott, Murphy, Orlov, Rundblad, etc. The problem is, the case isn't closed on these guys just yet. This time last year we could easily have been lumping Barrie into this group... and POOF look what happened. The same with E.Johnson.

But to your point of identifying a couple guys, instead of listing a slew of them, then I would go with: Rielly, Hamilton and S.Jones. Barring career-damaging injury, these guys are the closest things to LOCKS of becoming borderline elite/superstar offensive defensemen.

[fungchen3]

Nobody could have predicted Karlsson doing what he is doing in the NHL today.

That's not correct actually. Not to honk my own horn, but before Karlsson was "Karlsson" I was telling everyone he had the makings of an elite, offensive 70 point (yes 70!!) defenseman and my prediction received mixed reviews. A couple people agreed but most said that was way too lofty. Sometimes you get that perfect feel for a player based on instinct, talent evaluation, opportunity, etc. My Spidey Sense was tingling with Karlsson from day one. Morgan Rielly was the next one - I think he will be a 55-65 point DMan in the near future.

[Pengwin7]

then I would go with: Rielly, Hamilton and S.Jones.

Solid.
Sending you some rep.
That's the way to do it - that part of the post has good value to me.

Yup... Barrie looks like he'll be part of the 1 in 5.
He's in a good position to succeed.
Incredible that he has leap-frogged EJ and Elliott.
I'd bet we can find some good threads on people's views of the COL PP defensemen just last year or the year previous.