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Thread: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

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    Default MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    Threw this one up over at my blog the other day. The majority of votes went towards MacKinnon, but I think it's close.

    Seguin shot a ton this year and will be the focal point of Dallas, whereas Colorado is a deeper team. Their age difference isn't an issue now and won't be for another decade).

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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    I think MacKinnon too, but it's not by a ton. I think Mac can post Stamkos-like point totals while Seguin will be just behind that in his prime. The advantage with Seguin is that he's a couple of years further along in his development

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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    Seguin for sure
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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    Seguin for me.

    Lack of depth in Dallas suggests he could be a 21min/game player, playing 3/4 of a 2min PP.

    Colorado has two lines of depth.
    Thus, I think Mackinnon is going to be more of a 18-19min/game player, playing 1/2 of a 2min PP.

    Per minute, both players will be incredible.
    But essentially - I see Seguin getting more minutes, and thus more production.

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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    This will probably be a dead heat annually. These two will be very close in points every year. I like Seguin with Benn to much to not take Seguin here by a whisker.

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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    Seguin for me.
    Though I think they are similar players with similar upsides.

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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Seguin for me.

    Lack of depth in Dallas suggests he could be a 21min/game player, playing 3/4 of a 2min PP.
    What exactly are you basing that off of?
    Dallas was a lack of depth team this year too and he averaged 19:21 a game, where is that extra 1:40/gm coming from?

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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    Tavares played 21:15 this year. That's basically a one-line team.
    Stamkos averaged 22min/game the last two seasons. That was basically a one-line team.
    Phil Kessel played 20:40 this year. They weren't exactly only one line...

    Isn't that known as a common minute mark for top line forwards on teams with limited overall depth... 21min/game.

    Players make there way there at different rates.
    Tavares hit 20min/game in Year 3, 21min/game in Year 5.
    Stamkos hit 20min/game in Year 2, 22min/game in year 4.

    Seguin just went through a big development year, going from 17min to 19:20.
    And it was his first full year on a new team AND at center.
    It was his year 4.

    But like Tavares, Stamkos... I don't see why he wouldn't/couldn't go to 20 or 21min/game.

    A better question might be "Why would he NOT get to 21min/game???".

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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Tavares played 21:15 this year. That's basically a one-line team.
    Stamkos averaged 22min/game the last two seasons. That was basically a one-line team.
    Phil Kessel played 20:40 this year. They weren't exactly only one line...

    Isn't that known as a common minute mark for top line forwards on teams with limited overall depth... 21min/game.

    Players make there way there at different rates.
    Tavares hit 20min/game in Year 3, 21min/game in Year 5.
    Stamkos hit 20min/game in Year 2, 22min/game in year 4.

    Seguin just went through a big development year, going from 17min to 19:20.
    And it was his first full year on a new team AND at center.
    It was his year 4.

    But like Tavares, Stamkos... I don't see why he wouldn't/couldn't go to 20 or 21min/game.

    A better question might be "Why would he NOT get to 21min/game???".
    OK, I'll grant you that it is the natural progression for star forwards to increase their ice time up over the 20 min mark, especially as a C.
    But I'd also argue that Seguin's big jump was this season which is why I would be cautious in predicting a repeat of that.
    Also don't you see Dallas as a team on the rise? A team that is moving more towards depth and less a one-hit wonder? Wouldn't that offset the mins/gm somewhat?

    The other odd thing I noticed with TOI was that it has been trending downward for the last couple of years...not the total # of players over 20 but the number of forwards playing big mins i.e. 22+
    I'm curious if this is just a coincidence or is it more of a trend towards shorter shifts and spreading the ice time around more? Certainly some teams (like the Habs, the Blues for example) have had success rolling 4 lines so I wonder if it's an adjustment coaches are making or just an anomaly in the numbers?

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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    Quote Originally Posted by rumplestiltskin View Post
    I think MacKinnon too, but it's not by a ton. I think Mac can post Stamkos-like point totals while Seguin will be just behind that in his prime. The advantage with Seguin is that he's a couple of years further along in his development
    Good point. Likely depends a bit on when you want to win.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Seguin for me.

    Lack of depth in Dallas suggests he could be a 21min/game player, playing 3/4 of a 2min PP.

    Colorado has two lines of depth.
    Thus, I think Mackinnon is going to be more of a 18-19min/game player, playing 1/2 of a 2min PP.

    Per minute, both players will be incredible.
    But essentially - I see Seguin getting more minutes, and thus more production.
    I do like the fact that Dallas' entire offence goes through Benn and Seguin. Allows them to shoot a ton and the PP time has been high.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Carter View Post
    This will probably be a dead heat annually. These two will be very close in points every year. I like Seguin with Benn to much to not take Seguin here by a whisker.
    I've had a number of messages on twitter to the effect of "for sure Seguin" followed closely by "for sure MacKinnon".... tells me it's essentially too hard to call
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    Default Re: MacKinnon vs. Seguin

    Mac for me. It may be close for a year or two, but I like MacKinnon to pull away. I'm not afraid of Colorado's depth, because the cream rises to the top, and if he can handle the minutes, they'll be given to him. He's already getting those minutes many nights right now, in the playoffs, no less, and he's only 18 years old.

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