Let's rationally discuss Mackinnon's potential

[jcairns]

Everyone I talk to, everything I read on these forums, all speak the same story: Mackinnon is going to be incredible. I am seeing people turn down outrageous offers, like Stamkos for him. Let's have a rational discussion on him, where we actually try to separate our emotions and try to take an outside look at him - away from the hype and the glamour of him being the best rookie this year.

One thing I find every year is people forget that players do not develop geometrically. In other words, just because he got 63 points in his rookie season, does not mean next year he will get 73, the following 83, then 93, then 103, and then he is better than Crosby.

Many also always like to ignore factors that go into rookie production: opportunity, time on ice, linemates, and so forth. Mackinnon this year played 17:20 per game, and played 2:20 on the PP. That's pretty incredible ice time for an 18 year old, and not much room for improvement. No av's forward played over 20min or 2:49 on the PP. He also had the pleasure of playing most of his minutes with Landeskog and Stastny - pretty incredible linemates for a rookie.

Mack put up 46 even-strength points in 1,225 ES minutes. That's 0.03755 pts per minute.

For a good comparison: Skinner ALSO put up 63 points in his rookie season. Skinner put up 45 even-strength points in 1,109 ES minutes. That's 0.0405 pts per minute - better than Mackinnon. And that season, Skinner played ES with Ruutu and Larose - not exactly the same quality players as Landeskog and Stastny.

It seems like this happens every year, or every other year at the least. A rookie comes in, does exceptional, and people think he will be the next Crosby. They think his production will continue to climb until he is a 100 pt player. Yet few ever do.

Why do we think Mackinnon is so different? He's already logging ice time that won't improve very much. He's already playing with talented linemates, and an excellent playmaker in Stastny. The point of this post isn't to put down Mackinnon - I really like him. The point, instead, is to try and ground the discussion on him and actually have some good dialogue about where we think he might be headed, without all the irrationality that surrounds rookies that come flying out of the gates.

What do you guys truly think he is capable of, when you break down the stats and look at it rationally?

[lucifer316]

i view him same as i view Tavares and Stamkos

85-95 point player with 100 points on occasion

[kovalchuk17]

Hes not nearly as good as crosby, crosby put up 102 in his first season haha

i dont know how good he will be but his potential is obviously high. i dont have any fancy stats to back this up but i firmly believe in performance ceilings based on roster position/pecking order on the team. more simply, it is incredibly rare for multiple players on the same team to put up 80+ pt seasons and if they do theyre likely elite linemates. mackinnon and duchene dont play together nor were they as effective as a line compared to landeskog/stastny/mackinnon.

as such, duchene (for now) is top dog and will be the team's point-per-game player. as mack and duchene dont play together, i highly doubt anyone else is point-per-game either. at best, the rest of the scoring line forwards will be between 0.7-0.9 PPG, thats a range of 57-74 points. mack should be on the higher end of that scale and 70+ points is quite the achievement these days. until mackinnon becomes the go-to option on the team, which is no guarantee since duchene is quite the player himself, mack is in tough to surpass 75 points given the current NHL rules and style of play. if he does surpass duchene.....85-90 is in the cards

[27Blue]

One tier above Crosby.
160-180 point range.
Pretty much guaranteed...

[Pengwin7]

My Mackinnon predictions:

Year 2: 74pts
Year 3: 82pts
Year 4 & on: 85-95pts

The one caveat is this: playing Center.
IF Colorado shifts him to playing center, you'll see those numbers pull back a bit.
The defensively responsibilities to playing center will separate Mackinnon from his maximum upside.

For example, Chicago could throw Toews onto a wing and he could be a 90pt player.
But he's more valuable posting 75pts-80pts along with the +30 of being defensively responsible.

Patrice Bergeron could probably post 70pts... but he's more valuable as a 60-70pt player touching +30.

It will be interesting to see what Colorado does with Mackinnon.
I thought Colorado was going to bring him along this year as C3... and I forecasted him as 55pts in that role.
But it turns out that they let him play mostly RW... which gives him an ability to go score more and get to 63pts.

Patrick Kane, for example, had his worst NHL scoring year in the season he was shifted to center.
They released him back to wing, where he has been much better.

If Colorado re-signs Paul Stastny - that would be ideal for Mackinnon owners... as there is a better likelihood that MacK can play on the wing, and therefore touch 90pts.
If Colorado does not re-sign Stastny, then Mackinnon is likely slated for C2. And as a defensively responsible C2, you could see a season where he only goes high 60s or low 70s.
Then we're all going to say "What happened?"

Right now - the hype machine on Mackinnon is super high because he IS playing wing... and that allows a player much more creativity offensively.
So... we are starting to hype Mackinnon quickly into 90s territory - which may not happen with a shift to center.

Another case is Jamie Benn.
Benn has been shifted around a bit in his career, but with Seguin he plays a little center, a little wing.
They alternate... and have benefitted in the same manner that Datsyuk & Zetterberg used to take turns jumping around in those positions.

So - I'd say "Watch Stastny on July 1st".
That's our first indicator as to Mackinnon's future point projections.
If COL re-signs Stastny... I'll forecast Mackinnon for a faster track to 80s/90s points... as Colorado might be OK with MacK on the wing for next season or two.
If COL does not re-sign PS (or another C)... than Mackinnon is slated to play C2... and that is going to slow his point progression.

[27Blue]

Sorry Pengwin, but your post is ridiculous.

[Stringer]

One tier above Crosby.
160-180 point range.
Pretty much guaranteed...

That's bold, and I like it

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

It just comes from watching MacKinnon. You can see how good he is, and realize why he is a better player regardless of a numbers comparison from 4 or 5 years ago when the league was different and higher scoring.

Did you see the goal Mac scored the other night against Minnesota, where he turned Spurgeon into a pretzel? The speed through the middle, catching that puck in stride, followed by the deke and that shot? Those kinds of things can't be done by just anyone.....it was reminiscent of the game or goal Seguin had his rookie year against Tampa in the EC final. It was one sequence, but you just knew this was a player capable of things a lot of others aren't.

MacKinnon will hit 90 points in his career. Not "maybe".....he will. And he will do it multiple times. 100 is a real possibility as well. And I'm not just throwing these numbers out because holy crap he's been awesome lately, these are numbers a lot of people figured he could hit in the NHL by the time he was halfway through his first season in Halifax. He is a great young player, and although turning down Stamkos for him is probably stupid, how about Pat Kane? Or Phil Kessel? I would seriously have to consider those offers.

[Stringer]

....He is a great young player, and although turning down Stamkos for him is probably stupid, how about Pat Kane? Or Phil Kessel? I would seriously have to consider those offers.

Half way through the season I traded my P Kane away for Mackinnon, Ryan Johansen, and Hertl. Then Mack went on that crazy 13 game point streak. Now, buddy that received Kane did go on to win the championship - but that hasn't stopped me from bringing the trade up constantly!

I later picked up Palat from FA, and traded Johansen + Palat for Marty St. Louis. I'm not as crazy about that trade, but essentially I turned Kane into Mackinnon, St. Louis, and Hertl. Not trying to "rosterbate" here or anything, but I thought I had made a mistake at the time. Now I'm quite pleased

[Pengwin7]

Sorry Pengwin, but your post is ridiculous.

LOL....says the pot to the kettle.
I sent you some REP for your colour.

[27Blue]

My post was meant to be ridiculous.

[mister_mcgoo]

i view him same as i view Tavares and Stamkos

85-95 point player with 100 points on occasion

This...and this too:

My Mackinnon predictions:

Year 2: 74pts
Year 3: 82pts
Year 4 & on: 85-95pts

but not this:

The defensively responsibilities to playing center will separate Mackinnon from his maximum upside.

4 of the top 5 scorers this year were centers. That's not unusual either, centermen typically dominate the league in scoring over any other position

Here's a breakdown going back to the lockout season...I even made it top 10 for each year to give a bigger sample size (plus 10th/11th is usually right around ppg territory):



Now if you wanna argue that it might hurt him short-term, as he learns defensive responsibility and positional play then yeah sure, I can buy that. But long term he's simply too good a player. Whatever position they want him to play he'll bust his ass to excel at it, that's what I think is his greatest asset is his drive and his work ethic, with that attitude there's no way he won't succeed whatever his role.

[agoodburn]

i think its reasonable to expect that he is a top 10 scorer in the NHL in a few years. he is not Sidney Crosby, which realistically would put him at a 1-1.1 PPG. so in a few years we can expect 82-90 points in a good season. half of the NHLs top scorers this season played C, so i am not sure that for elite players the added defensive responsibility of the position hurts their game.

[Pengwin7]

4 of the top 5 scorers this year were centers. That's not unusual either, centermen typically dominate the league in scoring over any other position

You are evaluating production at center vs. wing (for one player) incorrectly.
Centers typically lead the league in scoring because the most talented hockey players... play center.

But, here's what I'm considering:
Landeskog - Stastny (C) - Mackinnon
vs.
Landeskog - Mackinnon (C) - Stastny

Which line is likely to score more?

[4T2]

Gordie who?

Gretzky couldn't lace this guys skates.

Crosby is only the second greatest player to ever come from Cole Harbor, NS.

Someday, MacKinnon's name will replace all these guys in the record books. Hell, when he gets older, he may just strap on the pads and try to challenge Marty Brodeur for winningest goaltender of all time too!