Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 4

[Stringer]

Not sure if my first post went through, I'll try again.

G, A, +/-, PPP, Hits, Blocks, Wins, GAA, SV%, SHO
14 teams, keep 17 of 21

Keep 2 of...

Morgan Rielly
John Gibson (my goalies kinda suck, not sure how much help Gibson will be next year)
Olli Matta
Jason Pominville
Kuznetsov
Toffoli

Thanks for any help, Love your site!

[big_dl]

Is this season a blip for Mark Giordano? He's on pace for 60 points over a full season. Which I don't see him ever reaching but his PDO is around 98 and his shooting percentage is a very sustainable 7.8%. His on-ice shooting percentage 8.3% also seems sustainable so it's not like those on the ice with him are scoring at an unsustainable pace either.

Basically, the pace seems ridiculous but the peripherals suggest this is sustainable. Is he a sell-high?

[Dobber]

After Ekblad, Bennett and Reinhart, who are the other worthwhile fantasy prospects from the upcoming draft? I will have a #4 pick and I wonder what are my options.

Also, what do you think about Eric Gelinas, Nicolas Kerdiles, Shea Theodore and Max Domi? Where do you see them next year and 3 years from now? What's the upside here?

Thanks!

I really dig into the draft-eligibles in April/May (after playoffs start, I really dive into this stuff) so to be honest, I wouldn't be able to give you a fair answer on that one. Right now you probably know more than me

All four of those guys have upside, and Gelinas and Domi should be in the line up in the fall. Gelinas will either take another step forward, or he'll keep getting benched and his ice time will be strictly PP. I get the sense that DeBoer doesn't trust him and he could MA Bergeron his way into oblivion. But far too young to write off already. I don't think Domi will make an impact as a rookie.

Kerdiles will be a couple of years in college. You can get more on him here: http://prospects.dobbersports.com/in...colas-kerdiles

Theodore is also two or three years away at least. Lots of dmen do well in junior, so don't overrate. More on him here http://prospects.dobbersports.com/in...-shea-theodore

[jcairns]

1. Nichushkin
2. Lee
3. Bjugstad
4. Tatar
5. Couturier
6. Backlund
7. Jenner

And I'm pretty confident about this order.

Thanks! Anders Lee was really my big question mark.
Another question, then: I know a lot of his production will depend on what line he spends most of his time on next year, but care to throw out any initial projection? I know it will be out of left field, but that's completely fine. Think he will crack 40 points next year, 120 hits, and 180 shots? Too lofty?

[Dobber]

What are your thoughts on Barrie and how many points do you see him putting up next season?

How do you see the Car goalie situation play out next year? Is Ward moved or do they roll a tandem next year?

Thank you for doing this!

Barrie is a tough one. I'd like to say that as he matures and gains experience, and as MacKinnon morphs into a superstar, that Barrie will take a leap forward and clear 50 points. But he also carries a risk. He occasionally has bouts in the doghouse, though those bouts I think are become less frequent. I would treat him like a 43-point player for next season with heavy upside and a bit of downside.

Ward will start 15 of the first 20 games, but will be mediocre while Khudobin kicks ass. By the end of the year I can see Khudobin starting 15 of the last 20 games. In the end it will be 45-37 in favor of Ward for starts, that will be top-heavy.

[Dobber]

Hi dobber, it seems that at this time of the year, players who have previously provided steady hits and blocks their numbers are really down. Is it the case that some coaches have asked their "grit" players to ease up ahead of the playoffs? Can you shed some light?

This is a matter of ice time and I don't think impacts the gritty guys on top or bottom teams. But the 12 teams in the thick of trying to make the playorrs will lean on their skill guys. So the first line will start seeing 20 minutes per game instead of 18, while the 4th line will see 9 minutes instead of 11...and yes, they get benched if they take needless penalties, so they don't take that risk with the over-the-top hits

[Dobber]

Thoughts on Kadri? Only 11:40 TOI last night. Does he get traded in the off-season and flourish somewhere else?

They should trade him. But I don't think they will.

He did get the OT winner and was first star as a result of that, but with Bolland back, Kadri is on the third line and in the long run I think that's good for his development. I still consider him a future 70-point player, it just may be another two seasons of mediocrity before he gets there

[Dobber]

Does P. Maroon have any 40 point seasons in his future?

What do you see Z. Kassian doing over the next couple of years?

Cheers.

I believe he does, but I don't see much higher than that. It's possible of course, I just wouldn't bet on it. I see him having a career like Penner - a really good season or two, a few years from now. But lots of time in the doghouse for perceived laziness and stretches of nonproduction.

Kassian has shown flashes, this past month, of being a really solid power forward. I'd expect something close to 50 points next year, which is a really big step. But I would think he will stay at that level for several years before taking that really big leap to stardom. Don't expect too much, too soon

[Axeman33]

Thanks for doing this.

What do you think goes on next year in Buffalo for their goaltending? Do they go with Enroth and Hackett or do you think they bring in a FA from somewhere? I realize its pure speculation, but in your eyes, what do you think is a sensible answer for them going forward?

[Dobber]

Hey Dobber, I'm likely going to have to decide between JVR and Nyquist on who to keep (points only). I've been leaning to JVR the whole year, but Nyquist just won't stop. Who do you think does better next year? Next two years?

Thanks

JVR is safer, but I think Nyquist has higher upside and furthermore - I own Nyquist in one league and I would rather have him than JVR. I just may be in the minority with that call, but that's what I would do

[Dobber]

Love your site Dobber!

Keeper league, 14 teams. Point stats + Hits and Blocks. Standard goalie stats. No Farm team.
I'll spare the details of my whole lineup, but I'm stuck with picking a few of the less-obvious keepers.

Keep 2 of...
Pominville
Kuznetsov
Toffoli
Monahan

also, keep 2 of...
Morgan Rielly
Seth Jones
Olli Matta
John Gibson (other goalies Schneider, Bernier, Reimer, Andersen)

Thanks for any input!

Thank you! and welcome to the forum Stringer (Bell?)

That is a tough one. The safe bets are Pommer and Monahan...but my personal bias leans towards Kuz and Toff. So...if it's me, I shop Kuz and Pomm for draft picks - no way I let them go for free - and then I keep Toffoli and Monahan. Of the four, Kuz and Pom will get you the nicest return.

I would keep Rielly and Jones

[Dobber]

Not sure if my first post went through, I'll try again.

G, A, +/-, PPP, Hits, Blocks, Wins, GAA, SV%, SHO
14 teams, keep 17 of 21

Keep 2 of...

Morgan Rielly
John Gibson (my goalies kinda suck, not sure how much help Gibson will be next year)
Olli Matta
Jason Pominville
Kuznetsov
Toffoli

Thanks for any help, Love your site!

It went through, you just need your first post approved. After that, you are free to post

[Dobber]

Is this season a blip for Mark Giordano? He's on pace for 60 points over a full season. Which I don't see him ever reaching but his PDO is around 98 and his shooting percentage is a very sustainable 7.8%. His on-ice shooting percentage 8.3% also seems sustainable so it's not like those on the ice with him are scoring at an unsustainable pace either.

Basically, the pace seems ridiculous but the peripherals suggest this is sustainable. Is he a sell-high?

I think he's a sell-high because of his injury tendencies, and not because of his unsustainable pace. I think he's performing as expected, or slightly better (due to the Wideman magic wearing off, as it always does after he's been on a team for a year or two). But it's his health that may hold him back.

[Dobber]

Thanks! Anders Lee was really my big question mark.
Another question, then: I know a lot of his production will depend on what line he spends most of his time on next year, but care to throw out any initial projection? I know it will be out of left field, but that's completely fine. Think he will crack 40 points next year, 120 hits, and 180 shots? Too lofty?

No, that sounds fair

[Dobber]

Thanks for doing this.

What do you think goes on next year in Buffalo for their goaltending? Do they go with Enroth and Hackett or do you think they bring in a FA from somewhere? I realize its pure speculation, but in your eyes, what do you think is a sensible answer for them going forward?

I think they had their eye on Neuvirth for a long time and that acquiring him was no accident. AS with Colorado and Varlamov, if Neuvirth can stay healthy then the Sabres will do what they can to make him their star starter. But Neuvirth gets hurt even more than Varly does, so I don't know about that plan...