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Thread: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

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    Default Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    Team and league in sig. It's looking like Burns will likely lose his D eligibility in Yahoo next season. He doesn't seem to get much respect, but in my multi-cat format I think he still holds a ton of value and may still be worth a keeper spot.

    Right now, my 12th and final keeper spot comes down to:

    - Brent Burns
    - Ryan Callahan (personal favourite, and beast in my format.....has been on my team for years and want to keep him)
    - Alexander Semin (when he's clicking like the last 2 months, he's money......his sog and upside make him tough to part with)
    - Steve Mason (goalies are valuable and hard to come by)

    I traded my first couple of picks in next year's re-draft, so I won't have a realistic shot at getting any of these players back.

    What do you think of Burn's long term value as a F? He shoots a ton, hits, can score 30+ goals playing with Jumbo, with great +/-. Would you use a keeper spot on him over the players listed?
    10 team, head-to-head, multi-cat, keep-12 keeper league. CATS: G,A,+/-,PPP,PIM,SOG,HITS BS,SHP, W,SV,SV%,GAA,SO Daily rosters of 6F, 4D, 2 Flex, 2G

    F: Crosby, Hall, Pacioretty, Hartnell, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Callahan, Dubinsky, Hossa, Huberdeau, Abdelkader, Bjugstad (IR)
    D: Karlsson, Hedman, Muzzin, Savard, Streit (IR)
    G: Lundqvist, Quick, Condon

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Blaster View Post
    What do you think of Burn's long term value as a F? He shoots a ton, hits, can score 30+ goals playing with Jumbo, with great +/-. Would you use a keeper spot on him over the players listed?
    You are definitely right in that he does not get the love he deserves. A lot of guys in my league dislike him even WITH "d" eligibility. I drafted him this year and love what he provides in multi-cat, but had to trade him to lock up a good keeper D and to address my blocks deficit (having both Buff and Burns in D spots really hurts your blocks). Anyhow, I traded him in a package that got me Weber, so I am happy with that.

    Back to your question: I like Burns as a forward. And the fact he missed some time this year has lowered others' perceptions of him.
    I can predict it right now: almost everyone will tell you to keep Callahan in this thread. But I'd say to keep Burns, and here's why:
    1) 3.6 shots per game --- Callahan: 2.5 shots per game.
    2) 65 point potential --- Callahan: probably 55, but that is dependent on where he ends up.

    I know Callahan hits more, but the difference isn't as much as many think: 2.0 hits per game for Burns, 2.9 hits for Callahan. So, the difference in hits and shots between the two is basically balanced, but I think Burns has the higher point potential, and I think shots are harder to get than hits are. Keep Burns.

    Also, I hate Mason so I am biased but I wouldn't keep him.

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    As nice as it is right now, I think you need to do this analysis without the consideration of Burns' rock-solid +/- rating because of the volatile nature of the statistic in general. It can really skew a player's value from year to year. Case in point: Taylor Hall. He's having a hard time maintaining a top-50 Yahoo! player ranking because of his awful +/- rating; otherwise, his numbers aren't too far off last year's totals when he was an ELITE asset. Perfect example of why tracking +/- in fantasy leagues is a bad idea, unless it's somehow measured as a team statistic.

    Anyway ... I think when you consider Burns' value otherwise, he is still pretty dominant in the Goals/SOG/Hits spread. Even so, I think I would rather own Alex Semin just because he has the upside to be an ELITE asset in any format, and could excel in G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG with decent potential in PIM/Hits. You know the downside, though. He could be an absolute waste of a roster space at times, and heart/motivation will always be questioned. If you'd rather go with the "safe" option, I think Burns is probably that guy; if you feel like rolling the dice a bit with your last keeper, Semin makes the most sense.

    I'd rank them:

    Semin
    Burns
    Callahan
    Mason
    MounD - Double Threat FHL (18-19 champs)

    10-Team Yahoo daily H2H Dynasty
    3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, 7Bn (IR)
    G, A, +/-, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK // W, Sv, GAA, Sv%, SHO

    C: Bergeron, Barkov, Aho, Point, Kadri
    LW: Marchand, Landeskog, Hertl, Marchessault
    RW: Stamkos, Tarasenko, Laine, Palmieri
    D: Carlson, Letang, Dumba, Weber, Pietrangelo, Ristolainen, Byfuglien*
    G: Bobrovsky, Holtby, Lehner, Greiss-Varlamov

    Farm: Turcotte, Cozens, Denisenko, Newhook // Sandin, Jokiharju, Dobson, K'Andre // Shesterkin

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    Quote Originally Posted by mounD View Post
    As nice as it is right now, I think you need to do this analysis without the consideration of Burns' rock-solid +/- rating because of the volatile nature of the statistic in general. It can really skew a player's value from year to year. Case in point: Taylor Hall. He's having a hard time maintaining a top-50 Yahoo! player ranking because of his awful +/- rating; otherwise, his numbers aren't too far off last year's totals when he was an ELITE asset. Perfect example of why tracking +/- in fantasy leagues is a bad idea, unless it's somehow measured as a team statistic.

    Anyway ... I think when you consider Burns' value otherwise, he is still pretty dominant in the Goals/SOG/Hits spread. Even so, I think I would rather own Alex Semin just because he has the upside to be an ELITE asset in any format, and could excel in G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG with decent potential in PIM/Hits. You know the downside, though. He could be an absolute waste of a roster space at times, and heart/motivation will always be questioned. If you'd rather go with the "safe" option, I think Burns is probably that guy; if you feel like rolling the dice a bit with your last keeper, Semin makes the most sense.

    I'd rank them:

    Semin
    Burns
    Callahan
    Mason
    I forgot to chime in on Semin in my response, but this is a good take on it. I agree with all of it. And really, it comes down to risk. For myself, I'd rather take burns and get the guaranteed hits thrown in there, rather than gamble on a healthy and productive Semin.

    I have a similar ranking, but view it as:

    Burns >/= Semin
    Callahan
    Mason

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    Thanks fellas, great reasoning by both of you. By including +/- as being an asset for Burns, I generally look at +/- as being a team stat. I don't see the Sharks as being anything but a dominant team for the next couple of years, so I think Burns being a positive +/- influence on my team is a pretty safe assumption in this case.

    I really like Callahan, as he's been the glue that has lead my team to a couple of titles....one in this league. Getting his bs from a F spot is a big advantage, and he's always solid in shp department. Those shorties win a lot of weeks. Also, he's getting a PILE of icetime in Tampa as Stevie Y and Cooper both love him. he's been getting 21+ minutes most nights, and is seeing time on both the PP and PK. A lot of games (like last one), Burns will only play 15 minutes and not see any special teams time. In my mind, these things tip the scale in Callahan's favour. Of course, Callahan might not re-sign in Tampa, but I think he's a great fit and have a feeling it will happen.

    Right now, here is my ranking (which is always changing):

    - Callahan (by a hair)
    - Burns
    - Semin (the reason I have Semin 3rd is mostly due to league dynamics. All the best teams are very strong in hits, bs, grit categories, which are always hotlly contested in the big match-ups, and when Semin is slumping he doesn't contribute enough in other cats. Hitting doesn't slump, so when in doubt I like to go for the players that have some sandpaper in their game. Semin shoots a ton, but so does the rest of my team....if I keep Burns or Cally, I'd still be extremely strong in sog)
    - Mason (has saved my bacon this year and has been a huge difference maker, but I don't trust him long term)
    10 team, head-to-head, multi-cat, keep-12 keeper league. CATS: G,A,+/-,PPP,PIM,SOG,HITS BS,SHP, W,SV,SV%,GAA,SO Daily rosters of 6F, 4D, 2 Flex, 2G

    F: Crosby, Hall, Pacioretty, Hartnell, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Callahan, Dubinsky, Hossa, Huberdeau, Abdelkader, Bjugstad (IR)
    D: Karlsson, Hedman, Muzzin, Savard, Streit (IR)
    G: Lundqvist, Quick, Condon

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    Just thought I'd update this thread, as I made my decision as Mr. Semin will be the first to get dropped. I'm in a heated battle in the H2H finals and Semin has been invisible the last few games, and Semin is going to end up on my bench on 2 busy days this week. Burns has been electric on the PP1 since they've put him there, and Callahan is rolling with the Lightning. Mason will be needed until the end of this week, which means Semin is the first to to go.

    He was going to be my first cut of the bunch anyways, although a couple of people in this thread preferred him the most. All the best teams in my league are tough/gritty, and Semin just doesn't bring it every night or contribute in any of the gritty cats. Throw in the injury history/risk, and I think I'm better off letting him be someone else's problem next year. The way things now sit, if I drop him, I will be able to keep 2 of Burns, Callahan, and Mason. I've had a manager inquire about my willingness to deal Mason in the offseason, and I will likely explore that route prior to finalizing keepers in August.
    10 team, head-to-head, multi-cat, keep-12 keeper league. CATS: G,A,+/-,PPP,PIM,SOG,HITS BS,SHP, W,SV,SV%,GAA,SO Daily rosters of 6F, 4D, 2 Flex, 2G

    F: Crosby, Hall, Pacioretty, Hartnell, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Callahan, Dubinsky, Hossa, Huberdeau, Abdelkader, Bjugstad (IR)
    D: Karlsson, Hedman, Muzzin, Savard, Streit (IR)
    G: Lundqvist, Quick, Condon

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Blaster View Post
    It's looking like Burns will likely lose his D eligibility in Yahoo next season.
    Just wondering where you heard this? Did yahoo announce anything?
    10 team pts-only keeper league - keep 10 plus 10 from past/present farm. No bench: entire active roster counts. Goalies: 2 pts/win + 3/shutout. 82 adds / year. NHL playoffs count for separate prize.

    F: J Eichel, M Tkachuk, J Guentzel, E Pettersson, P Laine, R Thomas, C Kreider, M Boldy, J Kyrou, M Backlund, F Vatrano, N Niederreiter, R Rakell, M Marchment, M Domi
    D: A Fox, S Theodore, R Andersson, B Montour, S Durzi, D Keith
    G: F Andersen, S Knight, J Swayman
    IR: J Hughes, M Stone, M Grzelcyk, S Perunovich
    Farm: L Raymond, O Wahlstrom, S Skinner, C Addison, Y Chinakhov, J Perreault

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chunkys_Choice View Post
    Just wondering where you heard this? Did yahoo announce anything?
    No, but the general consensus is that they got so many complaints about Burns that there is a 75% or so chance he is just a F next year. Even as a F though, he's a keeper in my format with his high SOG and hits along with his offence. The only thing I didn't like was his lack of PP time, but since they put Burns on the PP1 5-6 games ago, that power play has been on fire and he's now seeing 4-5+ minutes of PP time a game and blasting away form the point...gold.

    Anyhow, Semin was a surprise scratch tonight anyhow due to illness. I need to max out every roster spot I've got in my quest for a repeat, and I can't have a sick and ineffective Semin being the difference in the week. Someone has to go anyway, so Semin will be a casualty of a (hopefully successful) title run. Burns was pure money again tonight and stuffed the stat sheet, he's not going anywhere
    10 team, head-to-head, multi-cat, keep-12 keeper league. CATS: G,A,+/-,PPP,PIM,SOG,HITS BS,SHP, W,SV,SV%,GAA,SO Daily rosters of 6F, 4D, 2 Flex, 2G

    F: Crosby, Hall, Pacioretty, Hartnell, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Callahan, Dubinsky, Hossa, Huberdeau, Abdelkader, Bjugstad (IR)
    D: Karlsson, Hedman, Muzzin, Savard, Streit (IR)
    G: Lundqvist, Quick, Condon

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    Callahan & his hits, for me.
    And I think the important thing is to look to what "could" happen next year and try not to base our decisions purely on evaluating this year.

    I don't think Callahan re-signs with TB.
    He's a gritty veteran player... I think he'll pick his team to play for and it will be a gritty veteran North-American flavored team.
    As a "captain", you don't want to be an assistant-captain on a young team... Callahan's looking to win a cup now.

    I can see one of ANA, LA, MIN, PHI looking to sign Callahan.
    Very nice numbers available for him on any of those teams.

    re: Burns.
    He could go through some slumps.
    Don't forget that SJ has Tomas Hertl, who played first line early in the year.
    When Hertl got injured, Pavelski stepped up to play with Burns & Thornton - and Pavelski has been incredible there.

    McLellan did pull Burns off that top line in March and put Nieto up there.
    I could see that happening again, with the Sharks going with Hertl - Thornton - Pavelski and pushing Burns & Nieto onto line 3.

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    I'm for sure keeping Burns. Who knows what Yahoo will do. But it may depend on your league's format.

    Im my league, we are permitted to keep players in the positions they held the previous year. So for me, when I keep only 2 RW, 2 util and 4 D...it's a no Brainer. I'm keeping Burns as 1 of my 4 D. If he loses his D eligibility, then I've had an opportunity to keep an extra Forward (and one who plays on a #1 line with Thornton) in a D spot. I call that an advantage entering into a draft. Then I have the choice...if he Losses his D prior to the draft, then I can focus on snapping up the best D available while the others are trying to land a forward. But if he Keeps the D eligibility...then I get to do this whole strategy over again in 2015-2016.

    This guy is MONEY to me. I'll definitely keep him until the season after he loses his D eiligibility.

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    Default Re: Brent Burns' value as a F, do I keep him?

    I agree with the well-argued points here. Very close call. It feels like Burns is a 'better-known' quantity at this point, due to the FA status of Callahan. It's tough to adapt to a third team in under a year, if he does in fact move again. I agree that Burns +/- should remain very solid moving forward. And, if they are that close, the small chance that Burns defies the odds and keeps his D status should be a factor too.
    11 Team Keeper - Yahoo Pts Only
    G 4 - A 3 - +/- .5 - HIT .2 - SOG .2 - PIM .2 - BLK.2
    W 5 - L -3 - GA -.5 - SV .2 - SO 5

    C: Crosby, Seguin, Koivu, Dubinsky
    LW: Neal, Benn, Pacioretty, Dupuis
    RW: Eberle, Franzen, Vrbata, Atkinson
    D: OEL, Goligoski, Wisniewsky, Dillon, Faulk, Kulikov, Souray
    G: Backstrom, Lehtonen, Price, Khubodin
    Util: Grabo, Tlusty, Ruutu
    BN: Killorn, Clutterbuck, Bouchard, Schwartz

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