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Thread: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

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    Default Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    I know, it feels weird to ask. Both players are under contract for the foreseeable future, likely to be line-mates on a strong Anaheim team. But if the expected decline will hit starting next year and continue in their 30s (according to data from SB nations outnumbered) , will you ever get more value?

    If you’re rebuilding maybe you target a guy like MacKinnon, or a package of prospects and an elite defencemen to diversify your roster. The old way of thinking would be to keep Perry and Getzlaf as core pieces of your squad, but maybe they’re best used as trade chips?

    Of course if you’re window to capture a championship is this year or next then holding onto players like them is a given. We know that up until 29 or 30 there is very little change in production, it’s afterwards where things can get murky.
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    Everyone is for sale if the price is right but it would have to be one good price to get me off a Perry or a Getzlaf. One of the flaws I found in that study is that it didn't really differentiate between stars and regular joes. I would wonder if there is a difference. The other thing is that this data is looking at five-on-five production. Well what if your star offsets his lagging five-on-five numbers with elite PP production?

    And what's better for sustaining performance being an elite power play guy before the five-on-five decline or after? Getzlaf strikes me as a guy who would carry his production better in the future because he's a bit more cerebral and sets up plays. He gets more assists and PPP than Perry, which I assume would carry over to a later stage in his career where he's not as fast. Think of him like a Joe Thornton-lite.

    But I don't know for sure, this is just what I think would logically be the case.
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    I agree with a lot of the above. I would probably trade Perry before Getzlaf; goal-scorers seem to decline at an earlier age than playmakers do, and Getzlaf just seems like a guy who will be able to read the game and be effective at an advanced age.
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    Everyone is for sale if the price is right but it would have to be one good price to get me off a Perry or a Getzlaf. One of the flaws I found in that study is that it didn't really differentiate between stars and regular joes. I would wonder if there is a difference. The other thing is that this data is looking at five-on-five production. Well what if your star offsets his lagging five-on-five numbers with elite PP production?

    And what's better for sustaining performance being an elite power play guy before the five-on-five decline or after? Getzlaf strikes me as a guy who would carry his production better in the future because he's a bit more cerebral and sets up plays. He gets more assists and PPP than Perry, which I assume would carry over to a later stage in his career where he's not as fast. Think of him like a Joe Thornton-lite.

    But I don't know for sure, this is just what I think would logically be the case.
    Great point Steve. Was chatting with a buddy and he raised the same issue. Intuitively we would assume that star players would age a bit better (1 - they are superior players 2- they'll be gifted better linemates and zone starts....etc).

    Would be nice to see a study of just the top 75 or so guys. If only I had the time to do it...... sigh
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    Quote Originally Posted by mounD View Post
    I agree with a lot of the above. I would probably trade Perry before Getzlaf; goal-scorers seem to decline at an earlier age than playmakers do, and Getzlaf just seems like a guy who will be able to read the game and be effective at an advanced age.
    Interesting theory. I haven't seen a study specifically on assists, but I do know that most data points to goal scoring peaking in the mid 20s. That said, there is no reason Perry couldn't have fantastic seasons in his 30s (Iginla broke 40 at 32ish I believe) it just shouldn't be expected year in and year out.
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    Quote Originally Posted by Darren_Kennedy View Post
    Interesting theory. I haven't seen a study specifically on assists, but I do know that most data points to goal scoring peaking in the mid 20s. That said, there is no reason Perry couldn't have fantastic seasons in his 30s (Iginla broke 40 at 32ish I believe) it just shouldn't be expected year in and year out.
    It's true. His decline was a bit later. But that was Iginla's last season of elite play and elite power play scoring - 14 PPG, 30 PPP. So if Perry has two or three years left well that's probably too soon to give up on him. I do subscribe to the mantra that it's better to give up on a guy one year early than one year late.

    I will add that if Thornton is the Getzlaf comp then Iggy is the Perry comp. Didn't put that in my original post but that was definitely running through my mind.
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    Of course, because Eric Tulsky is the man, he has answers for us. This week's look at aging curves suggests Passers>Shooters>Scorers. So assist rates age better than goal scoring and goal scorers who shoot in bulk age better than those relying on large shooting percentages. http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/1...-forward-types

    Also interesting was his look at how PP scoring tends to age very gracefully. http://www.broadstreethockey.com/201...g-curve-knuble
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    Of course, because Eric Tulsky is the man, he has answers for us. This week's look at aging curves suggests Passers>Shooters>Scorers. So assist rates age better than goal scoring and goal scorers who shoot in bulk age better than those relying on large shooting percentages. http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/1...-forward-types

    Also interesting was his look at how PP scoring tends to age very gracefully. http://www.broadstreethockey.com/201...g-curve-knuble
    Wow, really interesting stuff here - thanks for sending across. I love when people do the statistical analysis for me haha.
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    Getzlaf yes, playing way over his head this year especially for goals. Perry no.

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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    youd better get a hulluva return for either one. i bet they have a bunch of good years left. one year early is tough to predict. id like to see the differance of 30 plus year olds who are on scoring teams that have ample sidekicks to help them continue strong at older ages verses weeker teams starts too.
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ev View Post
    Getzlaf yes, playing way over his head this year especially for goals. Perry no.
    I've been prying at Ducks fans on twitter, trying to understand if Getz is doing something different this year. Maybe being more assertive with the puck? He is of course shooting more. Maybe it is an anomaly, but if he can continue to shoot like this the goals may come for another couple years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kevinsrangers View Post
    youd better get a hulluva return for either one. i bet they have a bunch of good years left. one year early is tough to predict. id like to see the differance of 30 plus year olds who are on scoring teams that have ample sidekicks to help them continue strong at older ages verses weeker teams starts too.
    The good news for Getz is that according to Outnumbered's study playmakers tend to age better. Getz may have 3-4 more solid years in him.
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    For what it's worth, if Getzlaf were shooting his career average he'd be at 22 goals instead of 29 and he'd be on pace to finish with 26, a new career high.
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    Default Re: Perry and Getzlaf - would you trade them?

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    For what it's worth, if Getzlaf were shooting his career average he'd be at 22 goals instead of 29 and he'd be on pace to finish with 26, a new career high.
    Good point. I think he's actually staying healthy this year, which is what's showing up. He seems to be an above PPG player so.
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