I recently put pen to paper my thoughts on Evgeny Kuznetsov. Safe to say I'm pretty excited. What kind of production are you expecting to see?

Evgeny Kuznetsov: He’s Kind of a Big Deal


He’s almost here.

After months and months of waiting (years for Capitals fans) it appears that forward prospect Evgeny Kuznetsov is close to making his debut in the NHL. His KHL squad Traktor Chelyabinsk sits in 9th place, just outside the playoffs. Tomorrow, two other KHL teams, Admiral and Amur, play each other to determine Evgeny’s fate. If Admiral wins Traktor will officially be eliminated from the post season picture. Wide speculation is that Washington will then move to sign Kuznetsov to a contract and bring him overseas for the stretch run.


You can find a great breakdown of the situation over at Russian Machine Never Breaks.
The question for poolies (and especially me, since I’ve patiently held onto the #1 waiver spot all season long in anticipation) is what can we expect from Kuznetsov if he joins the Caps?
Ideally I would want to look at countryman Alex Radulov’s move back to the NHL for some context, but the fact that he had already played in the NHL for Nashville makes the comparison somewhat tangential. Instead,

I’d like to look at Vladmir Tarasenko, who made the same trip across the pond last season for St.Louis.

Tarasenko’s numbers in his final two KHL seasons were:
2011-12: 54GP, 23G, 24A, 47Pts
2012-13: 31GP, 14G, 17A, 31Pts

Entering into last season there was similar hype and media attention surrounding Vladmir. At only 21 he had already proven himself against grown men in the words second best league. Close to a point per game over two seasons there was plenty of reason to belive he would be a 60 plus point player in the NHL with potential for a whole lot more.

Over hist first 8 games he registered 10 points – his value literally could not have been higher. I remember (stupidly) inquiring on Tarasenko via trade around that time. The other manager, who was riding a wave of Russian superstar emotion, told me that it would take at least Malkin to pry him away. In his estimation Tarasenko was a budding star and destined to be a top 10 asset.

Of course, Hitchcock eventually took over, and much like his legendary namesake director, scared everyone back to reality.

Tarasenko would finish with only 19 points in 38 games, dealing with an injury as the season came to a close. Hitchcock employs a relatively balanced system in St.Louis were three and sometimes four lines will receive plenty of playing time. This doesn’t help fantasy production, nor does the number of veterans ahead of Tarasenko on the power play depth chart. Things have gotten a bit better this year, with his points and shots (122 in 57 games) trending upward slightly, but he still has ways to go before I’ll be sending Malkin in return…

Switching back to Kuznetsov, below are his most recent KHL numbers
2012-13: 51GP, 19G, 25A, 44Pts
2013-14: 30GP, 7G, 13A, 20Pts

It’s worth noting that he dealt with multiple injuries this season which may have had an impact on his stats. In 2012-13 he emerged as one of the KHL’s premier players, at only 20 years of age. A fun side note for poolies is that he averaged 4.4 shots per game that season. Naturally those numbers will come down – better competition in the NHL will make finding opportunities to shoot more difficult. However, he has proven to be a volume shooter in the past, the hope is he can do it again.

Under most normal circumstances I would ask poolies to tread carefully into valuing Kuznetsov. It’s easy to get carried away with foreign prospects that none of us have seen play very much. There is that ineffable hope that maybe he’s the next Alex Semin, or Radulov, and that 70 points with 35 goals is attainable. In almost every other case I would say lower your expectations.

But, this isn’t a regular team he’s joining, this one has Ovechkin, the best pure goal scorer in the NHL, and perhaps of his generation.

Over the last few months I’ve read multiple reports that speculate Kuznetsov could be tried on the top line alongside Ovechkin and Backstrom. The pessimist in me says maybe it only lasts a few games and then he’s slotted back on the second or third line. But what if it lasts? What if he spends the next year or more skating on a line with one of the words best playmakers and OV? That’s a completely different situation than Tarasenko found himself in and changes the fantasy conversation.

I’m not ready to to attach a projection to Kuznetsov. I simpy haven’t seem him play enough to feel comfortable with a number. What I will say is that if you’re luck enough to nab him off waivers and he starts that first game on Washington’s first line – there might never be a better time to trade him. Heck, you might even find someone willing to trade Malkin…. ( I kid, well, sort of).

It’s going to be a fun a couple days.