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Thread: Nathan MacKinnon

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    Default Nathan MacKinnon

    It was making me sad to look at this area of the forum and to have zero threads going! Yesterday I posted an article on the value of Nathan MacKinnon, specifically in keeper leagues, and how we should all be approaching him. Below is what I wrote - interested to get your thoughts on Mac and what kind of trades for him (or of him) have been out there in your league.

    Big Mac – An Attempt At Assessing Nathan MacKinnon (and other needless alliterations)

    It’s never the veterans that keep me up a night, scribbling notes on my bedside notebook. It’s not Malkin, Zetterberg, or Marty St.Louis. No, what forces me to stay awake is almost always prospects – the bain of my fantasy hockey existence.

    I understand veterans. I know how to read and interpret data. If a player has spent the past three seasons averaging 30 goals, 30 assists, with around 240 shots than that’s how I value them at the draft table. With a bit of risk reward built in (maybe the guy has a 15% chance at 40 goals, or a 40% risk of only posting 50 points). That’s just part of my day-to-day life as a poolie, looking at past performance and making an educated guess for the production that will occur in the future.

    The issue with prospects is that there is no past data (at least at the NHL level) so you’re forced to go based on junior numbers, scouting reports, magazines, and *gulp* you’re own personal intuition.

    Naturally it is hard to avoid of the psychological trap of looking on the bright side. It’s a lot like your regular life. You don’t wake up in the morning expecting to stub your toe off the metal bed frame, only to fall to the ground in agony whilst muttering any and all curse words that come to mind. No, you wake up expecting to have a decent day, drink you coffee, a bowl of Cheerios, and head off to work. But there you are, big toe throbbing, laying on the ground in a heap at the base of your bed. It isn’t broken, you big baby.

    Side Note: Cheerios just came out with this new version of their original formula. It has grains in it and seems to be resistant to becoming soggy (at least as quickly). Has changed my life (ok, that might be hyperbolic).

    A stubbed toe kind of how I feel about prospects. I know they are a fundamental part of the game, but it’s just so damn difficult to predict them with any level of consistency. Take Nichushkin for example – everything I’ve read about him has been glowing. Unbelievably long skating stride, quick release, strong on the puck, pedigree of goal scoring, and to add to all that he’s on a line conducive to scoring with Seguin and Benn. I’ve personally watched 15 Dallas Stars’ games this year and am convinced he’ll end up somewhere between Semin and Kovalchuk for fantasy value long term.

    Now, saying all that, I don’t really know anything for certain. Ultimately it is a guess. And worse yet it’s supposition based on very little NHL data. We’re barely 50 games into his career and he’s only 18 years old (so early on the developmental curve). If you’re looking to follow Nichushkin’s progress closely on a game to game basis the team over at Defending Big D do a fantastic job.

    But enough about Nichushkin (he distracts me very easily, as regular readers will note).


    I want to talk a bit about Nathan MacKinnon. Looking over the numbers it is becoming clear that we’re witnessing something pretty special for an 18 year old rookie. His current stats are:

    59GP, 22G, 23A, 45Pts, 171SOG.

    The point totals are great for a rookie and we know that they’ll creep up with physical development and an increased role on the team (one that will almost certainly come in the next one or two years). His speed is already well above average for the NHLer and he has been showcasing some deft playmaking of late (7 assists over the last 9 games).

    The big question in many pools is how to value him moving forward. It’s easy to get carried away with an elite prospect like MacKinnon and start pondering aloud whether he’s in the Crosby, Malkin, OVechkin, and Stamkos category. I don’t feel comfortable projecting him there. While the skill-set is sublime it may not be that of a top three or four fantasy asset.

    However, that doesn’t mean he isn’t set to become a first rounder in the very near future. The best comparables I have for value would be Taylor Hall and Patrick Kane. Both have developed into top 10 assets, with elite point totals and consistent shots on goal. Watching MacKinnon I get the feeling his fantasy value will finish somewhere in that range. Which is not to discount his ability, but more to level-set a reasonable expectation. I’ve found Dobber Hockey to be a good source of regular updates on MacKinnon this year.

    Skating on a team like Colorado should help with his peripheral numbers (plus minus, power play points…etc). WIth the depth of talent on their scoring lines he’ll have an opportunity to player with effective producers (Duchene, Landeskog, O’Rielly…etc). Additionally, other teams won’t be able to load up defensively against solely his line.

    Even with only modest gains over the next two seasons he’ll already be a top 25 skater at the age of 20 or 21, with plenty of time to refine his game and challenge players like Hall, Tavares, Perry, and Neal at the top of the pyramid.

    My general rule is to wade slowly into the water that is prospect evaluation. To a degree, that is true with MacKinnon. I don’t foresee a Crosby or Ovechkin like career, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be an outstanding, top 15 player for years to come.

    In retrospect I really shouldn’t have put Big Mac in the title. Now I’m thinking about McDonalds, and burgers, and yellow, tasty, sodium enriched fries…And with that I’m off into the night to hunt golden arches.
    I once traded Henrik Lundqvist and Ilya Kovalchuk in return for Peter Budaj and Henrik Zetterberg… have lived in shame ever since.

    Fantasy hockey contributor for Dobber Hockey, founder of www.darrenfantasyhockey.com. Admitted Valeri Nichushkin fanboy (of course who isn't?)

    You can find me on twitter @FantasyHockeyDK

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    wlussf's Avatar
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    Default Re: Nathan MacKinnon

    Quote Originally Posted by Darren_Kennedy View Post
    [I]It was making me sad to look at this area of the forum and to have zero threads going! Yesterday I posted an article on the value of Nathan MacKinnon, specifically in keeper leagues, and how we should all be approaching him. Below is what I wrote - interested to get your thoughts on Mac and what kind of trades for him (or of him) have been out there in your league.
    Great write up Darren, rep to you. I too believe he will end up as a top 10-15 talent in the coming years. His ability on the ice at the NHL level at 18 years old is very impressive.

    I was able to trade Wheeler and Shattenkirk for MacKinnon and Voynov in my points only keeper below. Needless to say, I am a very happy camper.

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    Default Re: Nathan MacKinnon

    The only players I would not trade for MacKinnon are:

    Crosby
    Malkin
    Ovechkin
    Tarares
    Stamkos
    Karlsson
    Subban
    And a few goaltenders (the list of them would rely on how my G situation is - obviously if I had terrible G I wouldn't trade what little I had for him)
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site

    15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.

    F - T. Thompson, Thomas, Nylander, Tarasenko, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Fiala, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Hagel, Zacha, Roslovic, Berggren, Brink, Ostlund
    G - Kahkonen, Vejmelka, L. Thompson, Levi, Comrie
    D - Hronek, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Girard, Brannstrom, Rathbone, Hanifin, Severson, Durzi

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    Default Re: Nathan MacKinnon

    Quote Originally Posted by wlussf View Post
    Great write up Darren, rep to you. I too believe he will end up as a top 10-15 talent in the coming years. His ability on the ice at the NHL level at 18 years old is very impressive.

    I was able to trade Wheeler and Shattenkirk for MacKinnon and Voynov in my points only keeper below. Needless to say, I am a very happy camper.
    Thanks man, really appreciate the kind words!

    Fantastic trade for your team long term. There would have been an expectation to start the season that Wheeler outperforms MacKinnon considerably but that is now gone. Even though Shatty is a stronger keeper (though maybe not as much in points leagues) than Voynov you still came away with a ton of value. I would agree with Dobber that you should essentially make MacKinnon unmoveable at this point.
    I once traded Henrik Lundqvist and Ilya Kovalchuk in return for Peter Budaj and Henrik Zetterberg… have lived in shame ever since.

    Fantasy hockey contributor for Dobber Hockey, founder of www.darrenfantasyhockey.com. Admitted Valeri Nichushkin fanboy (of course who isn't?)

    You can find me on twitter @FantasyHockeyDK

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    Default Re: Nathan MacKinnon

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    The only players I would not trade for MacKinnon are:

    Crosby
    Malkin
    Ovechkin
    Tarares
    Stamkos
    Karlsson
    Subban
    And a few goaltenders (the list of them would rely on how my G situation is - obviously if I had terrible G I wouldn't trade what little I had for him)
    Tough to disagree here. Rare that we see an 18 year old shooting as much as he is. His second half has been fantastic (especially last night) which is starting to look a lot like Stamkos in his rookie year. Wouldn't be surprised to see MacKinnon as a 3rd round pick next year.
    I once traded Henrik Lundqvist and Ilya Kovalchuk in return for Peter Budaj and Henrik Zetterberg… have lived in shame ever since.

    Fantasy hockey contributor for Dobber Hockey, founder of www.darrenfantasyhockey.com. Admitted Valeri Nichushkin fanboy (of course who isn't?)

    You can find me on twitter @FantasyHockeyDK

  6. #6
    marshal's Avatar
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    Default Re: Nathan MacKinnon

    I've had a couple offers for him thus far. Guy who had the first-overall pick in our draft last year went with Drouin and I was thrilled to get MacKinnon, who I would have taken over Drouin anyway. First offer was midway through our draft and since I had gotten D. Boyle as well, I was offered a 2014 first-rounder, mid-level prospect and goalie - forget who they were - in exchange for MacKinnon and Boyle. Underwhelming to say the least.

    The second offer I was received was a bit better, but the guy wanted Eberle as well, who I was not willing to trade. Think it spoke volumes that I had JUST drafted MacKinnon and had a couple offers soonafter.

    I have pretty high hopes for MacKinnon. I think he can be a consistent point-per-game player who will continue to get his shot totals up and who get his share of penalty minutes. I love the fact that he plays with an edge and will hit anyone at any time - his hit last night on McMillan as an example although it could have ended badly for McMillan. I see his upside as a 35-goal, 45-assist player and the fact that he plays with Duchene, Landeskog, Stastny and O'Reilly only makes his outlook brighter, IMO.

    I'd agree that I don't see MacKinnon in the same class as Crosby-Ovechkin-Stamkos-Malkin, but he's going to be a fantasy stud.

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