I've done over/under each of the last three seasons:
2010-2011:
9-2
2011-2012:
8-4 (Including nailing my "lock": Brad Boyes, UNDER)
2012-2013:
7-5 (Including nailing my "lock": Erik Cole, UNDER)
Overall, I believe that betters are "optimists" and betting agencies make their money on people picking the OVER. For that reason, I try to stay with the under. Last season, I was probably really only 4-5... but injuries to Karlsson, Spezza, and Kovalchuk locked up three hits. In 2011-2012, I should've had a sure OVER with Taylor Hall, except he only played 61 games.
Without further adieu, my picks for 2013-2014:
80.5 Getzlaf (ANA): UNDER.
Considering they have Perry at 65.5, this seems like a good pick.
65.5 Iginla (BOS): UNDER
There's enough forward depth in Boston to limit Iginla's minutes.
69.5 Vanek (BUF): UNDER
Buffalo stinks... and now they get some Western Conference (defensive) opponents + Detroit added to their division.
67.5 Benn (DAL): UNDER
I like Benn, but I think opponents will key on Dallas' top line. Benn is in a different position than last year. Seguin in a different position. Some learning curve there for both.
61.5 Huberdeau (FLA): UNDER
I just think Florida is bad. They don't have their crappy Southeast Conference opponents any more.
46.5 Briere (MON): UNDER
Too much depth in Montreal. Not enough minutes for Briere.
64.5 Stepan (NYR): UNDER
That's just a lot of points.
70.5 Voracek (PHI): UNDER
Again... a lot of points.
68.5 Ribeiro (PHX): UNDER
Not enough offensive help there... unless Vrbata/Ribeiro becomes lethal tandem.
[Though I will say Radim Vrbata is my potential break-out, 70pt potential candidate, if Ribs & him mesh.]
63.5 Ladd (WPG): UNDER (My "lock")
Previous to last year, Ladd had never eclipsed 60pts.
Last year was Winnipeg against strictly Eastern Conference opponents.
This year, he gets a new division with the defensively sound CHI, STL, NAS.
I don't think the points will come as easy.
OK, OK... that's 10 UNDERS.
Two OVERs:
48.5pts Perron (EDM): OVER.
If he can stay healty for 70 games, I think this he'll get it. I predicted 5 Oilers to hit 60pts... so Perron's part of that group.
62.5pts
Pominville (MIN): OVER.
Pom has hit 62pts or more FIVE times in his last SEVEN seasons. In those FIVE, he also played the full 82 games. He's a very healthy player. Last season he had 36pts in 47games, including 9 in 10 with MIN. So,
he's missed just ten games in his last seven seasons and totalling at 0.82 points per game. Multiply that by 82 games and you've got 67pts. Parise & M.Koivu are arguably the two best linemates he's ever had and they'll have a full preseason to get all those guys on the same page.
As for Dobber's picks.
Pretty good... too many "OVER"s (7/15) in the "Damn Sure" group for me.
If I'm making 15 picks... 12 will be unders, at least.
Picking an OVER on any player pegged for over 70pts is too much risk, IMO.
I don't like the Ovechkin is a "sure thing"... also factor in a mid-season trip to Russia with a TON of pressure/expectations... we shall see.
