#1 and #3 overall -- 2 Fs or 1D/1F?

[regehr]

I have picks #1 and #3 in this year's entry draft. It's an offense-only league (G=1, A=0.5, GA=-0.5), start 6F, 4D, 1G only on nights with 6+ NHL games (team details are below). All other things equal, it's typically undesirable to have 2 guys at the same position on the same team. Let's say COL takes Jones #1, FLA takes MacKinnon #2 and TBL takes Drouin #3.

General question:
Would you want to get two Fs (MacKinnon and Drouin) or 1D/1F (Jones plus one of MacKinnon or Drouin)?

What would you do if you were me?
(1) take Jones at #1 and take whoever is left of Drouin/MacKinnon? (risk here is that owner at #2 takes Drouin and I'm left with 2 FLA guys, Huberdeau being the other -- not the end of the world, but not ideal)
(2) take Drouin at #1 (and trade Connolly) and take whoever is left of Jones/MacKinnon?

***

12-team league. i've won the cup the last 3 yrs and finished 1st in reg season the last 5 yrs. league has $35 cap (but rev sharing drops me to $34.50). 25-man roster, 20-man farm. can have as many keepers as you want as long as you stay under the limit and cap.

F
1 H.Zetterberg 3.00 x 1 yr
2 E.Malkin 2.75 x 3
3 M.Duchene 2.50 x 3
4 L.Eriksson 2.25 x 1
5 T.Seguin 2.00 x 5
6 J.Toews 2.00 x 2
7 M.Koivu 1.50 x 3
8 B.Richards 1.50 x 1
9 T.Hall 1.25 x 5
10 E.Kane 1.25 x 5
11 RNH 1.25 x 4
12 J.Pominville 1.25 x 3
13 J.Lupul 1.25 x 1
14 J.Pavelski 0.75 x 2

D
1 K.Letang 1.50 x 5
2 K.Shattenkirk 1.25 x 3
3 C.Fowler 1.25 x 3
4 J.Wisniewski 1.25 x 3
5 Z.Bogosian 1.25 x 2
6 M.Carle 1.25 x 3
7 K.Timonen 1.00 x 1
8 B.Burns 1.00 x 1
9 B.Seabrook 0.75 x 4
10 A.Edler 0.75 x 1

G
1 Montreal 1.25 x 4
2 Washington 0.75 x 5

Total = $37.75 for 26 players
so I'm $3.25 and 1 player over (shouldn't be a problem)

FARM

F
1 J.Huberdeau 1.00
2 A.Galchenyuk 1.00
3 R.Johansen 1.00
4 B.Schenn 1.00
5 R.Strome 1.00
6 M.Zibanejad 1.00
7 B.Connolly 1.00
8 M.Granlund 1.00
9 M.Grigorenko 1.00
10 S.Baertschi 0.75
11 D.Stepan 0.25

D
1 A.Larsson 1.00
2 O.Ekman-Larsson 1.00
3 M.Dumba 1.00
4 D.Hamilton 1.00
5 D.Kulikov 1.00
6 J.Gardiner 0.50

2013 DRAFT PICKS
#1 overall
#3 overall
#9 overall
#11 overall

[gainerama]

Draft Druoin, Mackinnon, and then Barkov in that order.

Do not even draft Jones, he has no value in your offence only scoring system. If you're forced to remove an existing prospect to make room, trade out Connolly or Grigorenko.

[NikW71]

Offense only league should be focused on who will give you the most offense and that will be Mac and Drouin. I would even consider Barkov, Lindholm, and Nikushin (now that he is rid of his Russian contract) before Jones as well.

I would take Drouin at 1 and chances are at #3 you will get Jones anyway as Mac should in a normal world be already off the board.

[Pengwin7]

Take the forwards off the table as soon as possible.
I like gainerama's order... go with that.

[Kofax]

Draft Druoin, Mackinnon, and then Barkov in that order.

Do not even draft Jones, he has no value in your offence only scoring system. If you're forced to remove an existing prospect to make room, trade out Connolly or Grigorenko.

My thoughts exactly. Points only, Jones is not nearly as useful. Take the best player and worry about the 'team' issue later. (although I don't even think it's an issue, but I don't play in the league).

[rataylor22]

Draft Druoin, Mackinnon, and then Barkov in that order.

Do not even draft Jones, he has no value in your offence only scoring system. If you're forced to remove an existing prospect to make room, trade out Connolly or Grigorenko.

Disagree. With the news that Nichuskin has asked for and been granted a release out of his KHL contract, along with his own statements saying he will play in North America next year either in junior or the NHL (whichever his draft team chooses), and then projecting the most logical draft results of

Colorado - Seth Jones
Florida - Nathan Mackinnon
Tampa - Jonathan Drouin
Nashville - Alexander Barkov
Carolina - Valeri Nichuskin


I would say choose Drouin (best team/linemates), Mackinnon (tons of ice team, playing with Hubsy is studly), and then Nichuskin (Skinner - Staal - Nichuskin) which I prefer way more than a rookie in a Barry Trotz system (defensive, generally doesn't trust young players).

[kenzle1r]

Draft Druoin, Mackinnon, and then Barkov in that order.

Do not even draft Jones, he has no value in your offence only scoring system. If you're forced to remove an existing prospect to make room, trade out Connolly or Grigorenko.

Do this. However if you have to drop Connolly or Grigs I think its worth exploring adding one of them to your #3 pick to acquire the #2. if you're able to do this then select both Drouin and Mac.

[gainerama]

What he just said!

[regehr]

(sorry, I thought I posted this in the prospect forum)

Thanks for all the replies! I don't necessarily disagree with the suggestions to by-pass Jones, but the only issue is that 40% of our lineups are D-men!

With only 6 forwards a night, on a team with Malkin, Toews, Hall, Duchene, etc how likely is it that I will for example bench another top guy to put both my FLA guys in (Huberdeau, MacKinnon)? (e.g. I have both Hall and RNH and I only RNH 2 of 48 games this yr)

[gainerama]

You already have good experienced defencemen to hold up for a few years. None of these prospects will be started for you this season but the overall perceived trade value of Drouin & Mackinnon versus Jones is going to be night and day, especially in a pts only league. I see defencemen as a liability and space filler in this type of formats. If you were in my league, I would offer you a very generous bounty + whatever draft picks I got for Drouin or Mackinnon. If you ended up drafting Jones, I wouldn't even make you an offer period.

[regehr]

Yes, people do tend to dismiss d-men in this format. Of course, that's to my advantage -- I've had the top scoring D the last several years and I've finished 1st in the league during that time. Is that a coincidence? Probably not. My team relies on balanced scoring, not a couple super high-end guys. Others tend to dismiss 40% of their lineups (the d-men) while I make use of all 10 spots. I'm just saying there are only so many forwards I can put into my lineup. But as you say, I could always draft the forwards and extract a large bounty for them in trade if I don't keep them...

[rataylor22]

Yes, people do tend to dismiss d-men in this format. Of course, that's to my advantage -- I've had the top scoring D the last several years and I've finished 1st in the league during that time. Is that a coincidence? Probably not. My team relies on balanced scoring, not a couple super high-end guys. Others tend to dismiss 40% of their lineups (the d-men) while I make use of all 10 spots. I'm just saying there are only so many forwards I can put into my lineup. But as you say, I could always draft the forwards and extract a large bounty for them in trade if I don't keep them...

I understand this, but you are really over valuing Seth Jones right now. At best he projects to a number 1 two-way guy. This isn't Nick Lidstrom or Chara who is going to put up 60 points a season and be dominant defensively, and he definitely isn't a Karlsson or Enstrom. I would more peg him as like a Brent Seabrook type of guy. Think more like 35-45. In a points only league, that's not the type of D-man you pass up Mackinnon or Drouin for.

[regehr]

I understand this, but you are really over valuing Seth Jones right now....Think more like 35-45. In a points only league, that's not the type of D-man you pass up Mackinnon or Drouin for.

I'm not over-valuing him, just asking the question. I find d-men hard to predict, so generally don't take them this high.

If his upside is only 35-45 pts, forget just fantasy, why would Colorado take him over Drouin or MacKinnon?

[Kofax]

I'm not over-valuing him, just asking the question. I find d-men hard to predict, so generally don't take them this high.

If his upside is only 35-45 pts, forget just fantasy, why would Colorado take him over Drouin or MacKinnon?

Same reason they would take a guy like Weber (mind you Weber is maybe 40-50 points). The point is he plays 25+ minutes a game against the other teams top lines, contributes offensively and is defensively responsible. Those defensemen are much more valuable in the NHL then a points only fantasy hockey league. Exact same reason Luke Schenn was taken 5th overall even though he never posted great offensive numbers. That pick hasn't quite worked out, but despite being a high draft pick he was never considered a fantasy option unless you're counting hits/PIM. He's not quite at Jones level, but hopefully you get the idea.

[rataylor22]

Same reason they would take a guy like Weber (mind you Weber is maybe 40-50 points). The point is he plays 25+ minutes a game against the other teams top lines, contributes offensively and is defensively responsible. Those defensemen are much more valuable in the NHL then a points only fantasy hockey league. Exact same reason Luke Schenn was taken 5th overall even though he never posted great offensive numbers. That pick hasn't quite worked out, but despite being a high draft pick he was never considered a fantasy option unless you're counting hits/PIM. He's not quite at Jones level, but hopefully you get the idea.

Exactly this. Think like a. Ryan McDonough. Ridiculously good defensively but not an offensive stud. Avs have that in Tyson Barrie and Stefan Elliot among other things. They need a really good defensive defenseman.