Seven reasons why Antti Niemi should win the Vezina

[newfcollins]

There’s not a player in the NHL who is more underrated right now than Antti Niemi.

The San Jose Sharks goalie has pretty much done it all this season. Yet, he’s not getting the love of a Tuuka Rask, Sergei Bobrovsky or a Niklas Backstrom.

Where’s the love for Niemi? Where’s his Vezina-trophy support?

If he was starting for an Eastern conference team, people would have already handed him the award.

In this shortened-season, Niemi has come forward as one of the best goalies in the league. It’s time for Niemi to be seriously considered for the Vezina.

1) The numbers.

Sure, talking about numbers is dry, but that’s the main thing voters look for, so let’s get it out of the way first. Niemi has proven to be great this year. After last night’s action, he is tied for first in wins (22), second in games started (39), eighth in GAA (2.12), tied for fifth in save percentage (.926) and tied for fourth in shutouts (four, just one behind the leaders).

In 39 games started, Niemi has kept the opponents to two goals or less 24 times (almost 62 per cent of the time). He’s had a six- and seven-game winning streaks.

2) The favourites haven’t stepped up.

Before the season, the odds-on favourites would have been Henrik Lundqvist, Jonathan Quick, and Pekka Rinne, with possibly Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak in the discussion. With the exception of Lundqvist (more on him later), Niemi has better numbers than all of them. Whether it’s the goalie’s fault, or the fact the team in front of him has regressed, those five guys have not stepped up to the plate this season when it comes to the Vezina conversation.

This opens the door for a non-favourite to win.

3) Others never played in enough games.

The top four goalies in the league in goals against average look like this: Craig Anderson, Ray Emery, Corey Crawford and Tuuka Rask. Their games started also look like this: 19, 18, 24 and 29. If Rask gets to 35 games played (and that’s a big if at this point), it would be the same as starting just under 60 games in an regular 82-game season.

Maybe that’s fine for some people. Tim Thomas won the Vezina starting less than 60 games. For me, it’s not enough. The Vezina should go to a guy who starts at least 80 per cent of the time (barring injury). It sounds like a lot, but it's actually only 65 games a season. That's it.

4) Sentimental favourites haven’t been good enough.

This is key this season. Usually, when there’s no clear cut favourite, you get an older guy or someone who has the historical pedigree that becomes a sentimental vote. Think of Nicklas Lidstrom when he won a Norris in 2011 with a plus/minus of -2. But this year hasn’t seen a Martin Brodeur, a Roberto Luongo or a Miika Kiprusoff step up.

This means Niemi won’t be losing votes to a old-time favourite that is only putting up a half-decent season.

5) Niemi has beaten the top teams.

He’s played Anaheim four times, Chicago three times, Vancouver three times and L.A. three times. He’s had trouble against Chicago (but who hasn’t), but he’s defeated the other teams eight times in 10 games. So he’s stacking up his wins against top competition.

Looking at it another way, 36 per cent of his wins have come against the top four teams in the conference. He’s not a goalie padding his stats against bottom-feeders.

6) He’s carrying his team.

Yes, the Sharks started off hot thanks to Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton setting early-season records. But when the team came crashing down to earth, Niemi almost single-handedly kept the Sharks in the playoff hunt. In February alone, he lost four games when he kept his opponents to only one goal (one regulation loss, and three in the shootout). That’s three points the Sharks had no business getting. He picked up another win that month when he gave up only one goal in a 2-1 shootout win over the St. Louis Blues. He picked up another loss to Chicago when he only allowed two goals.

In total, Niemi had two wins, four losses and four overtime/shootout losses in February. Not great numbers looking at it that way. But the Sharks only scored 13 goals in those 10 games. Niemi had a 1.84 GAA and a .934 save percentage that month. The Sharks are six points up on ninth place right now. If it wasn’t for Niemi in that stretch when the rest of the team was brutal, they would be fighting for eighth. It's a big difference.

7) Playoffs

Not only are the Sharks in the playoffs at the moment, but they’re battling for home ice advantage. The Sharks are in fifth spot, tied with the Kings in points. But the Kings, who are in fourth, have the tiebreaker.

Conclusion

Niemi’s top two opponents in the Vezina race are Rask and Bobrovsky, and maybe Lundqvist. Rask has a much better defence in front of him, and doesn’t start enough games, IMO.

Bobrovsky has been great, but if Columbus doesn’t make the playoffs, it hurts his chances. Same with Lundqvist. But their numbers are very similar to Niemi’s. Let’s look at the tape:

Niemi: 39 games started, 22 wins, 2.12 GAA, .926 save percentage and four shutouts.

Bobrovsky: 32 games started, 17 wins, 2.03 GAA, .931 save percentage and four shutouts.

Lundqvist: 37 games started, 19 wins, 2.09 GAA, .926 save percentage and one shutout.

Pretty similar, eh? Yet, Bobrovsky and Lundqvist are being hailed as great goalies, whereas Niemi doesn’t get that same love.

And just for fun, let’s add in Rask’s numbers:

Rask: 29 games started, 17 wins, 1.99 GAA, .929 save percentage, three shutouts.

It’s not like Rask is running away with the stats. He’s behind Niemi in wins and shutouts, only 0.03 save percentage ahead, and ahead by 0.13 GAA. As mentioned, Rask has a much better team ahead of him, so that should factor in.

Niklas Backstrom is also getting a lot of attention, but his numbers don’t compare to the other three.

Backstrom: 36 games started, 22 wins, 2.40 GAA, .912 save percentage and two shutouts.

I’ll admit I know more about Niemi because he's on my keeper pool team. While it doesn’t come into consideration for the Vezina, Niemi is the top goalie in my league. Easily. He has 63 points. Second place is Braden Holtby, and he’s eight points behind.

So sure, I’m a little biased when it comes to Niemi. But the overall numbers don’t lie.

He deserves the Vezina.

[Ross The Boss Palmer]

Great work, really enjoyed the lay out. I have to admit, you have a very solid argument. Niemi isn't getting any love, and to tell you the truth I haven't paid any attention to him at all this season. It seems many others have not either.

[Marwin]

Very true, he has been rock solid.

[Dakkster]

No argument here. He's been really, really good this year. The problem, like you say, is exposure and people's awareness of him.

[horrorfan]

Well presented with evidence. Nice one.

[SeaDawg]

He has been unreal and has really come on strong in the second half especially. I didn't give him enough credit early on in the season, but now I am a big believer in his. San Jose went through a weird funk in the middle of the season when I thought they were going to miss the playoffs for sure, but Niemi has almost single-handedly carried them into the playoffs with his strong play.

I'm not sure if I'd vote for him to win the Vezina, but I'd certainly give him some serious consideration. Right now I feel the race for the Vezina is too close to call with a number of goalies deserving consideration. You mentioned most of them already, but I think Price is one name you missed. I also wonder if Anderson's name will be mentioned, even with the games missed. I doubt it, but he has been very good when he has played and if he plays all the remaining games for Ottawa, he might get some votes still.

[cdubb]

Yah, in one inaugural 10 team keeper league I have Rask, Niemi, and Bobrovsky - currently ranked in the top 4 goalies in my league.

I drafted Rask in the 3rd round (7th goalie chosen), and Niemi in the 17th round (was the 17th! goalie picked, including after M. Subban). I got thru Bob trade, but he was picked in rd 22. basically identical performance between them this year.

He's finished in the top 10 goalie stats the previous 2 years, but doesn't get much hype because ppl think its him just being on a good SJ team. But this year, he is keeping the Sharks afloat.

[tgraveline]

My dad has been calling him the Sharks MVP and part of me wants to disagree, but the more and more I look at things, the more it's true. The group in front of Niemi has been Boyle, Vlasic, Burns (now forward for some time) Irwin (rookie), Stuart, Hannan (just started playing again), Demers (2nd or 3rd season as a 6th or 7th d-man), and Braun (2nd season?) and even Tennyson (rookie) for a few games.

That's not a high class defensive group considering Burns is now a forward. Vlasic is pretty underrated and Boyle is a stud. Stuart is solid, but after Boyle, none of these is a huge game changer. They're getting solid play from these young guys who are actually considered more offensive defenseman (Demers, Braun, Tennyson).

So with that in mind as well, got to give Niemi some love.

[davidgoodburn]

Great arguments. Niemi certainly has found some consistency in his game this year and proven he belongs in the conversation with the top goalies.

You definitely couldn't have said that of him in previous year's when he regularly put up a dud game and cost his team (and many fantasy teams) the game.

This year he has made me rue the fact that I kept Bryz and not him as my second goalie keeper.

[dejeanneret]

GREAT post, and I wholeheartedly agree that it's way past time that Niemi got some love (both in real life and fantasy play). He's been unreal this season as you note, routinely being the reason that the Sharks are competitive in a given game.

One thing I'd add is that this isn't really just a one off phenomenon with him. Granted, his numbers haven't really been to this level (and I'm not saying that he's warranted Vezina consideration before given the seasons that other guys had during the time frame), but the fact of the matter is that since he took over in Chicago and then got moved to SJ, he's really been very solid. In that time, he's put up roughly a 2.40 GAA or better (last year's 2.42 being his worst) and right around a .915 SPct or better (a .912 was his low, the year he won the Cup with Chicago). He's also hovered in the 6-7 shutout range each of those 3 seasons and tends to put up (or prorate to) somewhere in the mid to upper 30's in terms of wins.

In any event, great analysis! Guy is VERY solid and it's nice to see that he's starting to get his due attention.

[newfcollins]

Right now I feel the race for the Vezina is too close to call with a number of goalies deserving consideration. You mentioned most of them already, but I think Price is one name you missed. I also wonder if Anderson's name will be mentioned, even with the games missed. I doubt it, but he has been very good when he has played and if he plays all the remaining games for Ottawa, he might get some votes still.

I love Price. I'm a huge Habs fan, but I don't think the numbers help him at all.

He has 19 wins (tied for sixth), 2.50 GAA (tied for 20th), .908 save percentage (tied for 28th) and three shutouts (tied for seventh). I honestly don't know if I would have him in my top 5 in Vezina trophy voting, maybe not even top 10. Rinne is considered to be having a horrible year, but he's still putting up better numbers than Price (except for wins). Nabokov has better numbers across the board (wins, GAA, save percentage, and tied in shutouts). Backstrom, Fleury, Howard, and the ones I mentioned are all having better seasons stats wise.

Anderson will be hurt by two things: the games played, and the fact that every goalie who played for the Sens this year was awesome. It takes away from his feat when every goalie on the team is doing well. If Lehner and Bishop sucked, then it's a different story.

[sixhands]

Love the write-up and the layout, very solid arguments.

I am not quite sure who does the voting for the Vezina but I can only assume that it is done by a bunch of pompous "know-it-alls" who will vote for their "favourite" no matter what!

Either way, Niemi should at least be up there with the other nominees.

[bondon]

Great write up man. Really awesome, and definitely a good argument.

One thing I'd add and you actually alluded to in you first point, is that Niemi hasn't been as feast or famine this year.

Last year he was super inconsistent, he would post a shutout and then get skunked the next game. This year he's put together great strings of starts and shown a lot more consistency IMO.

[metaldude26]

Screw the Vezina, how about the Hart? He's the only reason the Sharks are in the playoffs this season.

[newfcollins]

I am not quite sure who does the voting for the Vezina but I can only assume that it is done by a bunch of pompous "know-it-alls" who will vote for their "favourite" no matter what!

The NHL GMs vote for the award, so you've pretty much hit the nail on the head.