Jays close to acquiring R.A. Dickey

[metaldude26]

If that's the way it pans out then this whole exercise will be classified as a disaster for the Jays and their fans.....so yeah, I'm going to strongly disagree with you. The Rays just gave up 300 IP from last years pitching staff! Make no mistake about it, losing Shields and Davis does not set them up well to make a run at it this year. T-bay is still a very strong club with a bright future but on paper they don't stack up with the current Jays roster so what are you basing 94 wins on? You don't give up a pitcher of Shields calibre without replacing him and somehow gain 4 wins.

It wouldn't take too much in the way of internal improvement for that to happen. Simply getting a healthy Longoria (not a guarantee, of course) could be worth 3-4 extra wins. Then all you need is for each of the young pitchers (Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson) to bring you one or two more wins and suddenly you are ahead of the game.

There's also no discounting Joe Maddons' ability to make lemonade. For that reason alone you can't discount them.

[4horsemen]

It wouldn't take too much in the way of internal improvement for that to happen. Simply getting a healthy Longoria (not a guarantee, of course) could be worth 3-4 extra wins. Then all you need is for each of the young pitchers (Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson) to bring you one or two more wins and suddenly you are ahead of the game.

There's also no discounting Joe Maddons' ability to make lemonade. For that reason alone you can't discount them.

Shields averaged just about 15 wins a season for them over the past 3 years and 225 IP/year and I don't think the remaining pitchers are ready to fill that void....yet. On paper their pitching staff will take a hit in games won vs the staff they put on the field last year (I'm not saying some youngsters couldn't step up in a big way but that sort of stuff doesn't/shouldn't really factor into conservative season long predictions). Price has shown us the best of what he has to offer so it's up to Hellickson, Moore and Cobb to make up the difference and if they can't eat the innings that Shields was logging then the trickle down effect on the entire bullpen could become noticeable. On top of all that they've lost one of their main bullpen arms in Davis! Dude ate up 70 innings with a glowing 2.43 ERA , 11.13K/9 and 1.09 WHIP so in actual fact they've not only lost one of their most reliable starters but they've lost a workhorse out of the pen also. None of this even takes into account that Rodney is 35 and just miraculously came up with BY FAR his best season ever. I'd bet my house that he can't repeat!!!!

I do completely agree that a healthy Longoria will play a huge role in the team having any chance of repeating last years performance but I just don't buy any predictions that have them with a better record than last year unless people are simply trying to come up with ways that it's conceivable. I will concede that it is conceivable

[horrorfan]

If that's the way it pans out then this whole exercise will be classified as a disaster for the Jays and their fans.....so yeah, I'm going to strongly disagree with you. The Rays just gave up 300 IP from last years pitching staff! Make no mistake about it, losing Shields and Davis does not set them up well to make a run at it this year. T-bay is still a very strong club with a bright future but on paper they don't stack up with the current Jays roster so what are you basing 94 wins on? You don't give up a pitcher of Shields calibre without replacing him and somehow gain 4 wins.

You should've paid closer attention to my disclaimer and taken my prediction less seriously. It will be interesting to revisit this thread to see if I'm out to lunch as you suggest or my noneducated guess works out better than I expect.

[4horsemen]

You should've paid closer attention to my disclaimer and taken my prediction less seriously. It will be interesting to revisit this thread to see if I'm out to lunch as you suggest or my noneducated guess works out better than I expect.

Hahaha....I was just taking you up on your disclaimer

[horrorfan]

Just for fun, here are my early predictions for the AL East. You guys probably know more about the teams than I do, so I'm curious how it'll pan out. I'll make an (non)educated guess that the spread from top to bottom won't be as wide as recent years:

1. Tampa 94-68
2. New York 91-71
3. Toronto 86-76
4. Baltimore 80-82
5. Boston 76-86

Feel free to bash me, Jays fans.

Granderson out.
Teixeira out.
Rodriguez out.

Time to revise down that Yankees prediction!

[metaldude26]

Granderson out.
Teixeira out.
Rodriguez out.

Time to revise down that Yankees prediction!

The Yankees prediction doesn't concern me nearly as much as the Orioles one does. I just think they are good.

[horrorfan]

The Yankees prediction doesn't concern me nearly as much as the Orioles one does. I just think they are good.

You will have noticed if you read the earlier posts that I wasn't taking my predictions that seriously. I could totally be wrong on all of them.

[dmvincent]

Interesting to read some thoughts on this trade again.

Time to resurrect this thread.

[bondon]

No snowball's chance in hell that Buehrle will be okay starting in the fifth spot lol. We have to remember that we have egos to deal with here.

Romero - lock for 5th starter. Has to be. Least qualified, coming off the worst season of his life. At least this way he's protected by the top 4 and there is less pressure on him and less media buzz. Good way for him to slowly build his confidence and regain his form.


Buehrle/Johnson/Morrow - This is where the complications begin and end. I have a FEELING....and that's all it is really, that what the rotation will end up being is Dickey-Buehrle-Morrow-Johnson-Romero...or Dickey-Morrow-Buehrle-Johnson-Romero.

Dickey-Morrow-Buehrle-Johnson-Romero would be fantastic IMO as it splits up the fireballers and the lefties. Adds some crazy contrast to the rotation, but Buehrle would have to be okay starting in the 3 spot which I'm not sure he will be.

I think that Johnson falls into the four spot by default. While Morrow definitely deserves to be top of the rotation, he has to give way to the vets with the egos first. Dickey I could see comfortably sitting in wherever he is called upon to pitch, but I can't see that from Buerhle.

To be fair, when I said Romero was a lock for the fifth spot I meant as their last resort option of the five I mentioned in the post lol. Nice to see I went four for four on the top four starters though

[Axeman33]

While Dickey has pitched better the past couple starts, I am still not sold on him yet.

[horrorfan]

Just for fun, here are my early predictions for the AL East. You guys probably know more about the teams than I do, so I'm curious how it'll pan out. I'll make an (non)educated guess that the spread from top to bottom won't be as wide as recent years:

1. Tampa 94-68
2. New York 91-71
3. Toronto 86-76
4. Baltimore 80-82
5. Boston 76-86

Feel free to bash me, Jays fans.

Just thought I'd refresh this thread to see how I did with my predictions:

Boston 97-65 - Big miss
Tampa 92-61 - Pretty close
Baltimore 85-77 - Bit of a miss - under
New York 85-77 - Bit of a miss - over
Toronto 74-88 - Miss, but closer than what others predicted!

[Axeman33]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Yankees finish last in the AL East this year.

I didn't miss this by much. Damn Jays!!