[Cage Match Tournament] THE FINAL - #1 Ryan Miller vs. #2 Carey Price

[The Guvnah]

Miller easily. There's no way in hell Price should even be here. I can't believe he's STILL getting votes.

[MJ Flex]

I'm a Habs fan and I am voting for Miller. Only because we are looking at a 1 year window. There are a lot of Hab fans out there so I can see why Price may take this.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

I read the criteria quite thoroughly, thank you, and am beyond pleased that Price/Miller advanced beyond guys like Only-Good-For-Wins-Fleury and I-owe-my-stats-to-Tippet-Bryzgalov.

Fleury 2010-11: 2.32 GAA, .918 Sv%, 3 SO
Fleury 2011-12: 2.36 GAA, .913 Sv%, 3 SO

Bryzgalov 2011-12: 33 wins, 2.48 GAA, .909 Sv%, 6 SO
Bryzgalov post-AS break: 15 wins, 1.84 GAA, .929 Sv%, 5 SO

It's nothing personal dyz I love your analysis but I just don't agree with you on this. We all know MAF might not be a great goalie, but the fact is he plays for one of the best teams in the league and that will help his numbers. I feel like still clinging to the idea that MAF posts bad ratios is being lazy. He's showed the last two years that his ratios are good enough to help you in those cats.

But anyways about this matchup......Price will post a better GAA and Sv% than Miller this year, almost guaranteed. Miller will be around 2.50-2.55 again like always, and .915%. Price, even on a terrible team will be at 2.40-2.45 and .915-.920. Shutouts are a toss-up, and wins might be a slight advantage to Miller.

So that's two categories that you can just about bank on Price winning, GAA and Sv%. Shutouts can go either way, and although wins will most likely go to Miller its not a lock. So Price for me, yes even in a one-year.

[PrairieDog]

Tough call but based on the criteria, Miller.

[robmyatt]

Carey price, ahead by one vote!
People just believe in him. Or there are a lot of habs fans on these boards.

[ericdaoust]

Price has been at or above the .920 mark twice. I'm not sure how people think his save % is going to suffer. He can be on a crappy team and still be efficient.

[dyzfunctioned]

Fleury's past 2 years have been the best 2 years of his career. They've brought in Vokoun so you can already assume his starts are going to take a dip (even if not by much).

Basically, in an ideal year from Fleury, with Vokoun behind him, you're looking at what? 60-62 starts, a .915 SV% (average between his past two seasons), and a 2.34 (average between past two seasons), with 3 SO. With a win % of .59 over past two years, you're looking at about 35 wins.

That's pretty much an ideal year.

If you say in an ideal year from Price, on a bad team, you're looking at the year he went .923, 2.35, 38 wins, 8 SO.

So comparing ideal year vs. ideal year (even though I'd argue Price could put up better numbers than his best year to date while I'd never expect Fleury to clear .920), Price handily wins in SV%, GAA is virtually equal, Price wins SO handily. Even if you think Fleury wins more games that's 1/4 categories.

Even in a bad year for Price (last year), GAA is going to be close (maybe slight edge to Fleury, although his GAA has been above 2.6 most years), Price will win SV%, Fleury will take wins, and Price will take SO.

So ideal year of Fleury vs. bad year of Price = a virtual tie, slight edge to Fleury because SO are unreliable.

Good year of Price vs. Good year of Fleury = Price dominance. I have issues relying on a goalie who I know under ideal circumstances has virtually no chance of clearing .920 SV% and who has never posted more than a few SO. Basically Fleury is good for wins (which will drop due to a more capable backup... even if you only take a few starts away from it, it pretty much caps his wins at around 35-36) and potentially GAA/.

But anyway... I know my viewpoints, and everyone else knows theirs.

[dyzfunctioned]

Price has been at or above the .920 mark twice. I'm not sure how people think his save % is going to suffer. He can be on a crappy team and still be efficient.

Who would guess I'd agree with a Habs fan! And the guy who's been a pain in my ass in the UHL nonetheless.

[blayze]

So comparing ideal year vs. ideal year (even though I'd argue Price could put up better numbers than his best year to date while I'd never expect Fleury to clear .920), Price handily wins in SV%, GAA is virtually equal, Price wins SO handily.

Dude I'm usually in agreement with you, but you're completely out to lunch on this one...

First of all, it makes NO SENSE to compare ideal year vs. ideal year... Let's look at the reality of it TODAY. Pittsburgh has arguably the strongest team in the league with the best player in the world apparently healthy and ready to go. Montreal on the other hand will arguably be one of the shittiest teams in the league. Flower is in a MUCH better position to succeed than Price going forward. Taking this into account, the realistic way to look at this, based on your scenarios, would be good year for Fleury vs bad year for Price.

Your assessment of Fleury also makes no sense and is clearly biased... Fleury had 42 wins last year, and you're suggesting his best case scenario is 35 wins? How does that math work? And why wouldn't you EVER expect him to clear .920? He hit .921 in 2008 and hit .918 just two seasons ago... you make it sound like as if .920 is out of the realm of possibility or something. I think GAA and SV% will be close... but Price doesn't win shit "Handily".

And how can you confidently state Price will win such a random stat like SO "handily"? In the "Good Price" scenario, you claim Price wins SO "handily"... yet in the "Good Fleury" scenario... then SO's are suddenly "unreliable"??? So which one is it? You're starting to sound like Romney. Other than his one year where he had 8 shutouts, the rest of his career he's fluctuated between 1-4 SO... just like Flower.

Take off the rose-coloured glasses my friend...

[horrorfan]

Looking at history, Miller has only been sub 2.50 and over .920 once in his entire career, which was in 09/10 (great season). The last two seasons, he's been good but not great, 2.50-2.60, .916 and 5/6 shutouts. Price has had two sub 2.50 seasons, both the last two years. He's also hit .920+ twice as already mentioned, though the first time was his rookie season. Also the last two seasons he's had 8 and 4 shutouts respectively, so that's a bit more random. Wins edge likely Miller due to being on a better team, though Price did have 38 two seasons ago so maybe he'll be able to steal a few more games this season. Who knows really. Also, in a shortened season, more B2Bs may mean more of Enroth, which could cut into Miller's wins. I'm more confident in Price having a greater workload, but no way of knowing for sure until the schedule comes out.

What does this mean? It means you can argue one way or the other for this season, but looking at recent numbers there isn't a clear cut choice.

I voted for Price, but really it's a coin flip. The voting shows.

[dyzfunctioned]

Dude I'm usually in agreement with you, but you're completely out to lunch on this one...

First of all, it makes NO SENSE to compare ideal year vs. ideal year... Let's look at the reality of it TODAY. Pittsburgh has arguably the strongest team in the league with the best player in the world apparently healthy and ready to go. Montreal on the other hand will arguably be one of the shittiest teams in the league. Flower is in a MUCH better position to succeed than Price going forward.

Your assessment of Fleury also makes no sense... Fleury had 42 wins last year, and you're suggesting his best case scenario is 35 wins? How does that math work? And why wouldn't you EVER expect him to clear .920? He hit .921 in 2008 and hit .918 just two seasons ago... you make it sound like as if .920 is out of the realm of possibility or something. I think GAA and SV% will be close... but Price doesn't win shit "Handily". And how can you confidently state he'll win such a random stat like SO "handily"? Other than his one year where he had 8 shutouts, the rest of his career he's fluctuated between 1-4 SO... just like Flower.

Take off the rose-coloured glasses my friend...

First off... rose-coloured glasses? I'm an Oil fan, I hate the Habs. Not sure where you're going with that comment. I'm simply talking from an unbiased fantasy hockey perspective.

Second, Price has only started 2 full seasons. I mean if you want to look at the 41, 41, and 52 GP seasons then that's a pretty flawed sample. I'm looking at the past 2 years for each goalie.

During the past 2 years, Fleury had 3 shutouts in both years and Price had 4 and 8. SO may be random, but Price averaged twice as many SO as Fleury over the past two years. I'm willing to bet he beats him in the upcoming year in SO as well.

And reality of it today, is that looking at last years stats, you're looking at Fleury's best year in his career and a sub-par performance from Price.

..And even then the stats are:

.916 SV%, 2.43 GAA, 4 SO, 26W
.913 SV%, 2.36 GAA, 3 SO, 42W

SV%, GAA, and SO are all super close. Fleury dominates in wins. Fleury was the better own last year, even though the categories break down to a 2-2 tie.

And then more reality of today... Fleury has a capable backup for the first time. Now some say that will motivate him to be better, and sure, let's say it does. But point is, even if Vokoun's impact is marginal, Fleury will still lose a couple of starts. That's why I said his upside for wins is 35-36.

He won 63% of his games last year and 55% the year before. So let's say Vokoun has virtually no effect and Fleury plays 65 games. That would be 41 wins under last years win % and 36 wins under the previous year's win %. So that's an average of 38.5 wins. Slightly above my estimate, but that assumes Vokoun has no impact.

If Vokoun starts even 20 games that limits Fleury to 62 starts which is 39 and 34 for an average of 36.5... and that's only cutting Fleury's starts by 5 from last year.

And Fleury hit .921 SV% in a season where he started a mere 35 games... Hardly representative of a full season sample. In his career of being a starter, Fleury has cleared .915 SV% ONCE in ~5 years of in years with 55+ starts. So yea, I'm not relying on him to clear .920 SV% anytime soon.

Flower is in a better position to succeed, I'm not denying that. But I'm saying that despite his situation, Price is capable of posting better numbers in a bad situation, than Fleury is capable of posting in a fantastic system.

Situation is certainly something to consider, but you have to consider talent too. Vokoun played for pretty much the worst team in the league for 4 years and averaged a SV% of .923, GAA of 2.57, 6 SO, and 25 wins a year.

I mean let's just compare these two for a minute...

08-09:
Fleury 35W, .912 SV%, 2.67 GAA, 4 SO
Vokoun 26W, .926 SV%, 2.49 GAA, 6 SO
Vokoun wins 3/4 cats

09-10:
Fleury 37 W, .905 SV%, 2.65 GAA, 1 SO
Vokoun 23W, .925 SV%, 2.55 GAA, 7 SO
Vokoun wins 3/4 cats

10-11:
Fleury 36W, .918 SV%, 2.32 GAA, 3 SO
Vokoun 22W, .922 SV%, 2.55 GAA, 6 SO
2-2 Tie in categories

What's my point? 3 years running, a good goalie on a bad team (ironically, Fleury's competitor for starts now) beat or equalled Fleury playing for a team that won the cup during that span.

So... situation isn't everything. Fleury is in one of the best situations of all goalies in the NHL, but he still doesn't have elite stats.

[Bomm Bastic]

I've resisted saying anything because of my homer-colored glasses (sorry...."coloured", eh).

First, I went w/Miller (like, duh)
Second, I think it's very close.

Skill set, it's a wash. Experience, I give an edge to Miller. But Miller is the more emotional of the two.

I like the team in front of Miller more than the one before Price. That said, everyone knows how I feel about Ruff ().

Miller is more than capable of locking down his net, and I really think Buffalo's D-depth makes his job easier this year. Ultimately giving him the up on Price.

[blayze]

Flower is in a better position to succeed, I'm not denying that. But I'm saying that despite his situation, Price is capable of posting better numbers in a bad situation, than Fleury is capable of posting in a fantastic system.

This is the only part of your post that got my attention, and it is exactly where we see the world differently.

[MCMackerel]

Price! Also for all the haters you think Price doesn't deserve to be in the finals..he got here. That says something. Accept that the majority likes Price and remember that one opinion isn't better than another.

[blayze]

Also for all the haters you think Price doesn't deserve to be in the finals..he got here. That says something. Accept that the majority likes Price

The same could be said for George W Bush...