Reply With QuoteThe odds are based on public perception....everyone thinks Baltimore sucks after getting killed by the Texans so more people bet against them..thus driving the spread down.
I just don't get why I should take them instead of Detroit or Seattle who are more heavily favored. I'm sure the bookmakers account for them coming off a bye when setting the line.
On top of that, Baltimore has the added benefit of having some value next week.
The odds are based on public perception....everyone thinks Baltimore sucks after getting killed by the Texans so more people bet against them..thus driving the spread down.
To some extent I agree, but I also don't think my thoughts are better than public perception. If I did, I'd just make a killing betting the lines and not worry too much about a $50 survivor pool.
It's not the average joe blow $5 bet that moves lines. It's the professional sports bettors who regularly bet ~$20,000+ and I'll confidently say they know more about football than I do.
Given my level of knowledge, I just like to trust the lines. Especially this late in the week, once bad initial lines have been moved by the bettors. As I said before, if I thought I could beat the lines, that would be my approach to betting football rather than a survivor pool.
They just announced Calvin Johnson may not play Tommorow and if he does play he will only do third downs...shall I change my lions pick to ravens now?
I'm sticking with Lions for now. The moneyline hasn't changed even though that information is out there. I was at the Lions/Seahawks game last weekend and megatron did nothing. Broyles and Young were making the catches. That being said obviously megatron is a huge asset, but I'm liking Detroit for now.Originally Posted by egstud19
Not entirely happy with any of the options though to be honest.
If he's out....you're officially crazy for not taking Baltimore. The other guys were making the catches because Megatron was double covered!
I don't get your hard-on for Baltimore. I mean ya they're favored but other teams are favored even more.
http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League...L/1/Lines.aspx
In fact Baltimore has even dropped. Using this Odds Converter we can find out what they're probability of winning is based on the odds:
(as of 10:10am EST)
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/
Denver: 67.74%
Baltimore: 64.91%
Redskins: 60.78%
Detroit: 70.59%
Chicago: 66.67%
Seattle: 67.74%
New York: 65.52%
Atlanta: 65.16%
I'm still watching the lines and subject to change but Det has such a big lead I don't see myself changing.
Ive explained it multiple times. I don't base my pick on what the public is doing. Simple as that. But....had I have known that Johnson would only be taking 3rd down snaps this weekend I would have went with San Diego.
That's cool. I do. Primarily because I don't know much about football. Really I just play the odds, rather than my hunches. You could say I'm a robot. Haha, see what I did there hockeyrobot?
Going out for breakfast now. Sticking with DET.
Good luck to everyone, unless you pick a team that people in my pool picked. Then unfortunately I hope you lose.
I was ballsy I switched it 5 min before deadline to Washington I went with my gut here
Only person on det in my pool. Stoked.
2 on sdg, 1 hou, 1 sea, and 1 oak
1 Oakland!?!?
Ya lol. Dunno what he's doing but he picked CLE the other week so kinda expected
That shouldnt even be allowed. Picking Cleveland and Oakland and still being alive is a shame.
aggressive. good luck.
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