Round #1, Pick #5

[kushmoney]

So, my big $ league is coming up and I drew 5th overall.

This league is a QB heavy league, so the top 5-10 picks will probably be quarterbacks.

I'm thinking that the top 3 is a combination of Rodgers, Brees, Brady...

So, with 5 I am looking at a group of: Stafford, Eli, Rivers, Newton, Vick...

We start 2 quarterbacks so I am unable to pass on one here, I might actually take another in my round 2.

I'm hoping for Stafford. BUt if he goes 4 what to do...

Stafford: Stud, injury risk.
Eli Manning: Inconsistent at times, but a solid performer.
Rivers: a lock for close to 30 tds close to 4,000 yards.. v-jax left though?
Newton: 14 rushing is goin to be really tough again, can he improve his passing or will he slump ?
Vick: injury injury after injury.

I am leaning taking whomever falls from Stafford/Eli..

anyone else have some input?

[Bomm Bastic]

Stafford/Newton for me. In fact, Newton over Staffor if only because of the injury factor. Eli's a solid #2 but no way would I be drafting him 5th overall and expect him to carry me into a championsip. Rivers sure I get it...expect the bounce-back, solid safe pick. But Newton is so much more dynamic I dont see how ya pass that up.

I even get Rivers over Stafford (not that i necessarily agree). But Newton ya gotta go for it

[Matt Price]

Stafford is the answer and I agree with you that you should go QB/QB if there is a worthy guy there in the 2nd. If passing TDs are only worth 4 and rushing tds are worth 6 then I'd go with Newton. No, he doesn't come close to approaching 14, but even if he gets half that he would be worth it.

[Spec7ral]

Newton easy for me. I am willing to reach for him this year. He is special. And I NEVER draft qbs early.

[One87]

So, my big $ league is coming up and I drew 5th overall.

This league is a QB heavy league, so the top 5-10 picks will probably be quarterbacks.

I'm thinking that the top 3 is a combination of Rodgers, Brees, Brady...

So, with 5 I am looking at a group of: Stafford, Eli, Rivers, Newton, Vick...

We start 2 quarterbacks so I am unable to pass on one here, I might actually take another in my round 2.

I'm hoping for Stafford. BUt if he goes 4 what to do...

Stafford: Stud, injury risk.
Eli Manning: Inconsistent at times, but a solid performer.
Rivers: a lock for close to 30 tds close to 4,000 yards.. v-jax left though?
Newton: 14 rushing is goin to be really tough again, can he improve his passing or will he slump ?
Vick: injury injury after injury.

I am leaning taking whomever falls from Stafford/Eli..

anyone else have some input?

Newton should be your pick. QB is the only player who touches the ball every play. And few have the ability to throw for a TD or run for one on any given play. To me, it's Newton by a COUNTRY mile and then some.

[Bomm Bastic]

Yeah I don't know why people assume Newton will have a worse year solely because he out performed expectations last year. Kids a talent, not ifs ands or buts about it.

But for the injury, I could lean towards Stafford at #5.

[Dyv]

List your league scoring rules and roster format?

I know I can give you better advice if I understand what your league favors.

[kushmoney]

Sure.. They are below... so as you can see.. if you have a QB who has a 400 yard game with a 50 yard td pass, your almost golden.... long tds and passing yardage help a TON.

Top 10 scorers last year were: Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Calvin Johnson.

Roster Format is: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, UTIL (ANY), DEF, K most teams that win and want to compete slot in an extra QB at the UTIL spot.

Like I said I am leaning towards Eli if he falls beacuse hes so reliable. Its so expensive of a league that it actually deflates Cam's value a little bit cause of uncertainty. Sure he can be a complete stud, but he may not be that great and suffer a slump as well and your pissing away 400 bucks. I know this shouldnt be a deciding factor but for me, unfortunately it is.

We are planning to go QB in round 1, and see where the draft is round 2, possibly taking a qb2 or a WR 1 and then in round 3 trying to nab josh freeman whom i think is a huge bounce back candidate.

Passing Every 25 passing yards (PY25) 1point; Every 5 pass completions (PC5) 2points; TD Pass (PTD) 6points; 40+ yard TD pass bonus (PTD40) 5 points; 50+ yard TD pass bonus (PTD50) 10 points; Interceptions Thrown (INT) -2 points; 2pt Passing Conversion (2PC) 2 points; 300-399 yard passing game (P300) 5points; 400+ yard passing game (P400) 10points

Rushing Every 10 rushing yards (RY10) 1 TD Rush (RTD) 6
40+ yard TD rush bonus (RTD40) 5 50+ yard TD rush bonus (RTD50) 10
2pt Rushing Conversion (2PR) 2 100-199 yard rushing game (RY100) 5
200+ yard rushing game (RY200) 10

Receiving Every 10 receiving yards (REY10) 1 Each reception (REC) 1
TD Reception (RETD) 6 40+ yard TD rec bonus (RETD40) 5
50+ yard TD rec bonus (RETD50) 10 2pt Receiving Conversion (2PRE) 2
100-199 yard receiving game (REY100) 5 200+ yard receiving game (REY200) 10

[kluu]

man up and pick Peyton Manning

[kushmoney]

Picking Manning would be a silly pick.. learning a new system, coming off injury, losing zip on his ball, etc..

[Dyv]

Yep, that's a big play league for sure - rules are heavily bonused on big plays.

Still, let's see if we can find some equivalency values. You're probably right running a QB in round 1 - and personally I'd take Stafford even with his injury risk. I'd just be sure to get Shaun Hill in round 9-12 range as that Detroit QB situation will be good even if Stafford goes down.

If those top 4 QB are gone (Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Stafford) I take Calvin Johnson over Eli Manning and Cam Newton for sure. I know Eli has grown, but he's not in the same ballpark of value over these guys.

Tricky league - can you trade your pick?

[kushmoney]

You can put theres no value in doing so. Another prereq on roster limitations is that you can only have max 2 qbs on your roster at any point so I cant back up my QBs. I would have to go out during FAB bidding (done in real $) and bid for my back ups on certain nights at a local bar, which I have no problem with.

Calvin is certainly tempting but would possibly hinder me in later rounds. His pace was extraordinary last year. I know hes a dominating force, but can he repeat taht sickening pace? Historically, teams that went WR heavy in the first 3 rounds are in the bottom of the rankings and historically teams with 2 great qbs cruise....

[Dyv]

How big is this league?? How many franchises?

[kushmoney]

12 teams in this league.

[Dyv]

So only 24 QB's are on rosters, and probably all 24 are being used as starters with 2 per team.

If I was drafting I can tell you I'd definitely go for Rodgers, Brady, Brees then Stafford. After that I'd take Calvin Johnson as the #5 player and go with Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice before going back to QB's.

These 4 players (Calvin and the 3 RB) are on a tier of insane value all by themselves above their peers. After they are gone, going back to QB is there an OBVIOUS ton of difference between Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Matt Schaub, Cam Newton, Josh Freeman, Vick, Romo, Cutler, Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, etc?

I'd be very tempted to take Calvin Johnson at #5 (if the top 4 QB are gone) and then in the 2nd round take one of those stud top 3 RB if any make it back to you and THEN I'd start filling my QB lineup with best available in rounds 3 and 4. For me in QB there's a top 4 - if you don't discount Stafford due to injury - and then another tier of about 12-13 players who could all shuffle within the next group. Sure I like Philip Rivers more than Carson Palmer - but I'm not at all sure the difference is more than 5-10% value. Whereas I like Calvin Johnson, then the next group of WR is 20% or more beneath. Those top RB and then a monster gap down to the #4 guy.

Just thinking out loud - but I'd go top 4 QB, Stud #1 WR, top 3 RB and then second tier QBx2

Good luck - let us know how the draft goes!