RG3 for Matt Ryan+

[strider2k2]

16 Team Dynasty League

Relevant scoring settings:
Every 50 passing yards - 1
TD Pass - 6
Interceptions Thrown - -2.5
2pt Passing Conversion - 2
300-399 yard passing game - 3
400+ yard passing game - 3
Sacked - -2

Every 20 rushing yards - 1
TD Rush - 6
2pt Rushing Conversion - 2
100-199 yard rushing game - 3
200+ yard rushing game - 6

My Roster:
QB - Tebow/Orton
RB - Best/Spiller/Ivory/R. Williams/Lumpkin/Kareem
WR - A. Johnson/Maclin/L. Robinson/Amendola/N. Burleson/D. Jones/B. Gibson
TE - F. Davis/J. Cook

My team the last couple of years has been pretty awful, thanks to my inability to get consistent production out of my RBs and QBs. As a result I am the proud owner of the third overall pick in the upcoming rookie draft. Since I fully expect Richardson and Luck to go first and second that means I'm sitting on RG3.

The Matt Ryan owner just emailed the following prposal:

My pick (RG3) for Matt Ryan, Santonio Holmes, and his third round pick (13th in the round, 45th overall).

RG3's ceiling is enticing, but Ryan is a proven producer with weapons around him. I'm not thrilled about Holmes and the pick, but the Ryan owner does have some other interesting players, namely Kenny Britt and Helu. So I guess my question is:

- In the short and long term, who is better, Ryan or RG3?
- If Ryan > RG3, should I try to swap out Holmes and the pick for a guy like Britt of Helu?
- Do you think RG3 for Ryan/Britt (or Helu) is a doable offer?

Thanks in advance for any help, and sorry for the long post.

[muller714]

no doubt do it.

i think ryan value is high enough over the next years, and not to forget rg3 hasn't played a game in the nfl yet.

try ryan and helu

[Dyv]

I'm not positive RG3 doesn't go 2nd - so be prepared to take Richardson just in case, right?

I'd say your RB situation is pretty loaded - Spiller and Best are a great pairing of top 20 RB types for this year.

Your WR and TE are very productive/good as well - especially given this is a 16 team league?

I'd probably do Ryan for RG3 straight up as I think the 3 year value here is definitely in Ryan's favor. If you can get more that's fantastic.

You don't talk about your starting lineup, so I'm not sure if you use 3 WR? 2 RB? Just 1 QB starting right?

I'd make him this offer:

Your pick & Burleson
for
Ryan & Britt

Failing that, try: Your pick + your 3rd for Ryan + his 1st and 2nd this year

[strider2k2]

Starting lineup:
QB
2RB
2WR
TE
RB/WR
WR/TE
bunch of IDPs that don't really factor into this discussion

I know for a fact that Richardson is going to be the first overall pick, so that leaves me with one of the QBs at 1.3. Would things change that much if we're talking Luck instead of RG3?

I was told that both Britt and Helu weren't available, so I'm not sure if adding Burleson is going to change that. I'll try anyway, what's the worst that can happen, he says no? lol

Unfortunately he doesn't have a 2nd this year and his first is the first overall, which is how I know Richardson is going 1.1.

I'm surprised you like my RBs so much. Spiller still has Jackson to deal with, and can you really count on Best to play a full season? I've been trying desperately (with no luck) to get Kevin Smith as insurance. The upside is definitely there for both of them, I just don't feel comfortable banking on either of them.

Thanks a ton for the input guys, rep for all.

[casimiri]

Things definitely change if it's Luck. Is it possible to hold off on this trade until the draft?

[Dyv]

I know that Matt Ryan is a top 10 QB in 2012 (assuming health, etc.)

I THINK that Andrew Luck is a top 10 QB, but definitely not in 2012

For argument's sake, let me make my claim:

2012: Ryan #7, Luck #18
2013: Ryan #7, Luck #12
2014: Ryan #7, Luck #8

I think Ryan wins this argument for 3 years while Luck develops and while Indy develops weapons around him. Of course, this assumes health for all parties involved.

Football turnover is such a hardcore fact - I would recommend you build your team around 3 year value and not worry about what a player could be 5-10 years later. At this point, abuse the fact that RG3 hype is out there and cash in on guaranteed top 10 value? Heck yeah, I do that all the time.

And you've got the added fact that this guy is all drooling about getting 2 of the top 3 studs this year! What if they flop? Need I talk about Ryan Leaf or any of the dozens of other surefire things that never made it? I cash this in, no question I just work a bit to see how much I can extort in the process.

As for your RB - Fred Jackson is 31 years old. He's a good back, when healthy but he's already showing signs of breaking down. Spiller is fresh and fast and they need to use him in that offense as one of their few playmakers. I like Spiller a lot to play slot WR, flanker, RB and maybe even wildcat a bit. Great skills and speed plus maybe primary ball carrier. I like him for top 20 status this year.

Jahvid Best is the same kind of animal - though he shares some workload with LeShoure and Kevin Smith he's still a bonafide playmaker who is explosive. Detroit needs to use him outside the tackles more and not have him run his face into big guys all the time and I think they're figuring that out. There's plenty of firepower in Detroit's offense to go around.

I think you are solid at TE and go 3 deep at WR and have 2 usable/good RB. Matt Ryan cements your QB situation, what you really lack is depth. Covering bye weeks and injuries will be very challenging for you, but we'll help you find gems on this website and get you sleepy happy.

Try for Ryan, his 3rd this year and 1st rounder next year for RG3/Luck - then try to trade his 1st rounder next year plus his 3rd rounder this year into a 1st rounder this year or just tuck it away for next year. There will be usable players in your FA pool so you can address your depth issues. Do your part and get the best possible starting lineup together for now.

In the NFL, the average RB & WR last 2.6 and 2.8 years respectively - football is going for it - setting up a team for success for a year or two and then rebuilding or doing your best to make shrewd trades and picks and keep it going. Either way, constantly being mediocre won't help you - go for it and get some $ this year!

[Bomm Bastic]

Sorry I disagree. Two things stand out from the outset.

First, this is my team I am thinking long term. Second, with gunslingers such as Brady, Stafford, Brees, and Rodgers (throw Cam into the mix), a fantasy GM needs a top tier, elite QB in order to compete in a dynasty league.

Matt Ryan helps your team, w/out question. But...and no offense...a lot of players would help your team. That doesn't mean you give up a potential stud in RGIII for a player with the same skill set that many other current NFL QBs possess (eg. Romo, Rothlisberger, Cutler, Schaub...etc...)

Your team is not going to win this year regardless of whether you deal that pick. And quite frankly I am not as confident in your RBs as Dyv, so if Richardson does fall to you that would be a most needed upgrade at a very important position. Point being, you need to consider all scenarios prior to making a deal with long term and significant consequence such as this one.

So I would keep the pick, play out the year and get another high first for next year. Load up on high end prospects.

OR

Tell this other GM that your launching point for moving a top tier talent in Richardson or RGII is Matt Ryan + his first rounder. Ultimately I would want Ryan + his first + Britt.

In the meantime, tell him you are shopping the pick to the league and will have to wait on any final decision. See what other other GMs offer you. You will be surprised.

[strider2k2]

No worries Bomm. I'm sure any skepticism you have about my RBs pales in comparison to my own, lol.

I've shopped the pick around to just about everybody in theleague, and as of this morning there are only two offers on the table that I think are even worth considering.

Ryan/1st next year/3.14 (Thanks Dyv)
Dalton/1.5

Chances are the pick nextyear won't be in the top five, but at the end of the day we're still talking about a QB and a first round pick, and Ryan is the better QB so that makes the Ryan offer the better package. What's interesting, and what original drew me to the Dalton owner in the first place, is that he has three first round picks (1.4/1.5/1.11). My original asking price before the Ryan owner got involved was Dalton/1.4/1.11. The Dalton oner has balked time and again at trading away two first rounders and Dalton, but I'm hoping that with the Ryan offer I might have a little leverage.

Assuming a Dalton/1.5/1.11 package becomes a reality, I figure I could draft Martin at 1.5, a WR with 1.11 (Quick was the guy I was hoping for), and still get a good young QB in Dalton. Of course this strategy is predicated entirely on a lack of confidence in my current RBs. If Best/Spiller are good enough to get the job done then there's really no reason NOT to go after the better QB in Ryan. Or is Ryan that much better than Dalton that it shouldn't matter?

RG3 scares me. I know the kid is an athletic and dynamic playmaker at the QB position, but I'm a little worried about putting too much stock in a rookie QB. Newton was absolutely phenomenal last year, but expecting any type of fantasy relevant season (3000 yards, 20+TDs) from a rookie QB seems like a reach, and I'm a little biased against the Redskins. Have they EVER had a QB? lol

[Dyv]

A couple of thoughts. I think Ryan is just outside of the top 5, and I like him a ton. I think Dalton is at best league average and at worst he flops and is out of the league in a year or two. I prefer Ryan by about 3 solar systems.

Combine Dalton with rookie picks (gambles) and I'll definitely prefer the Ryan + 1st + 3rd. I then bust hard to dangle that 1st for something I need, but that's for a longer issue. Bottom line you've taken one good player (Rg3) and turned him into at least 2 (Ryan + 1st)

I think you're going to be very happy with Spiller this year and Best has at least a good chance to be good. His injury history suggests you can't count on him, but since you lack the depth and overall talent you need to bank on some upside and improve more obvious spots (QB)

I also doubt you're going to win this year, but by loading up bonafide players and chips you give yourself a chance (what if Spiller and Best both bust it open this year?). And by lining up another first next year you really make it a strong positive to a building team.

During the season if you don't see the bursts at RB you want then selling assets for potential becomes your goal. No reason to finish 7th, may as well go big and finish 12th

I still think this gives you a chance to be in that playoffs for your league - but no question you're going to need to nail at least 3-4 good players from FA that will contribute at a high level. I feel confident we can help you identify that type of player here - the rest is out of all of our hands!

Dyv

[Bomm Bastic]

It's a toughie...I'm having difficulty with this one man. i like Ryan...I do sincerely. But saying he's just outside of a top-5 ranking is putting too much stock in Julio Jones. Now I love Julio as much as the next guy, but in order to get Ryan into the top five Julio has to has a phenom year.

Spiller is at best 500 yds this year, and Best is not a lead back and has his own concussion/injury issues.

Dunno...just ranting here I guess sorry. I like Ryan, I just don't know that I'd want him as my #1 from now 'till.....oh, and totally agree w/ Dyv on Dalton.

Avoid that like herpes.

[strider2k2]

Since the league started back in 2008, Matt Ryan has been the 11th, 15th, 7th, and 6th highest scoring QB in the league.

While I'm not sure that he'll be a perennial top five QB, he's definitely locked into that second tier of guys behind Brees/Rodgers/Brady I think. There's a lot of variables there, with Stafford's health, Newton's ability to improve upon a record shattering rookie season, etc.

I'm a little surprised by the lack of love for Dalton. I don't think the guy will ever be a premier QB, as he seems to be limited by less than stellar arm strength, but I like what little I saw out of him last year (don't watch a ton of Bengals games here in Philly, lol) and figured he's going to have AJ Green to throw to for a while which has to be a plus. What is it I'm missing? Is his ceiling just that low?

Thanks as always for the advice.

[Dyv]

There's more to it than simply 'ranking' - it's his age, weapons and the trends in the NFL. He has possibly the best pair of WR in the league (Roddy White and Julio Jones), an aging, but still viable stud TE (Gonzo) and a workhorse RB+a pretty good set of committee backs in case Tuner IS hitting the downside.

Ultimately that's a pretty loaded offense - and he's already in sniffing top 5.

The value of a player isn't just his points it's where you can get him in the draft. As Strider notes he's gone from 11th to 15th to 7th to 6th in scoring over the last 4 years in his league. Virtually the definition of 'just outside the top 5' - plus reason for him to take a step forward with the changes to his team.

The real key to valuing a player is perception of others vs. the reality vs. the expectations. What I mean by that is taking Aaron Rodgers at 4th overall when he has an ADP of 4th overall is not at all surprising. If he performs as expected you got fair value from the pick. Taking him 1st overall is possibly losing in value and taking him 15th overall is likely to be sweet value.

Matt Ryan is the 6-8th best QB this year on paper and his ADP has him going 10th among QB's. That's opportunity, simply put. Now analyze the pairings you can make with your #5 overall pick and your #65 overall pick. With #5 I can get Aaron Rodgers (possibly) and at #65 maybe I can get Roy Helu. Or I could use my #5 pick and get Ryan Matthews and then use #65 on Matt Ryan.

The difference between Rodgers and Ryan may be 70 pts., but the difference between Matthews and Helu might be 100. You tell me what's best for your team. I'd take the 30 pts.

[strider2k2]

Ended up taking the Ryan deal. Thanks everybody for the help.

Great points about Rodgers/Helu vs. Mathews/Ryan. I also loved the points brought up in the ramblings a while back about building your draft from the bottom up. Never thought about it like that before, but it's definitely an approach I'll be taking in one of my leagues this year.

Got another proposal in my inbox today, and figured rather than start a new thread I'd just tack it on here. Straight swap - L. Robinson for K. Smith. I'm not sure Robinson repeats last year's performance in Jacksonville, and Kevin Smith would give me some insurance for Jahvid Best. That said I still think Robinson is a bit much. Thoughts?

[kingshockeygm]

take that deal for your insurance, but don't forget Leshoure could take that job

also, make sure you have a plan, as it sounds like you are kind of in limbo

your rb's are terrible despite what others are saying

i'd wait for a team to get into injury trouble and try and get a top 5 guy at Wr/RB/Qb and go from there. if you can get 2. start the rebuild with true studs and some top picks as you flail along again.

its ok to not have a good team, but its not ok to always have a bad team. start the rebuild. you have ryan and it looks like he may be a solid keeper. Best and Spiller are still 2 guys who have shown nothing over a whole season. Neither can be slotted as an RB1.

also how may teams in this league?
go get some studs and pay for them once the stud is injured and rebuild for next year.