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Thread: System for Evaluating Prospects - Some Examples

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    Default System for Evaluating Prospects - Some Examples

    Here are some players from the past that I have chosen to evaluate, plus my favourite forwards for the 2012 draft. I know that people could say that I am cherry-picking guys who happen to fit my system, but I would have to write up hundreds of players to dispel that. Besides, I admit that my system is not perfect as I would have been wrong on guys like Stephane Lebeau, Nikita Filatov and most likely Patrick Eaves (for example) had I evaluated them at the time of their draft ages. So, my system is far from perfect, but it is still a good way of finding gems and duds ... way better than guessing

    I kept these short as there is a word limit on these posts.

    Pavel Brendl
    Had a phenomenal rookie season as a 17 year old in the WHL, followed by an equally electrifying playoff run. He then saw his point and goal totals drop in each of the next two seasons. While his numbers still seem great, he regressed his last two years in the WHL, which is a very bad sign.
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    Zach Parise
    Absolutely destroyed the USHS while at Shattucks St. Mary's the two years he was there, then followed that up with 26 goals and 61 points in the NCAA. Coupled with his great WJC performances, he had star written all over him.
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    Sam Gagner
    Completely dominated the GTHL in each of his four years there, then did well in the OPJHL and the USHL. He had a fantastic first season in the OHL, but completley flopped in the WJC. This was a bad sign, since he had been so dominant. To me, it showed that he needed more development and nuturing rather than getting time in the NHL with a poor team. He obviously has talent, but he is missing something (drive, heart, work ethic ... not really sure), that is keeping him from being consistently good against better competition.
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    Corey Locke
    Had a so-so first season in the OHL as a 17-18 year old, an age when he should have challenged 100 points, if he had the 'stuff.' He had an amazing second season as an 18-19 year old, but followed that up with a big point drop and goal drop the followiinng season. Regression is always bad, but especially when the drop is so big. Great players don't regress like this.
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    Rob Schremp
    Did well in the OPJHL in his two seasons there before graduating to the OHL as a 16-17 year old, where he had a good first season. He stagnated in his second year when he put up virtually the same numbers as the previous year. He had a good year as a 18-19 year old the following year but had only a 'decent' WJC. He got his monster season as a 19-20 year old, but had a lukewarm WJC, scoring only 1 goal. He really should have been one of the best players in the tournament at his age. Several warning signs here.
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    Derick Brassard
    Had a terrible WJC17 tournament as a 16 year old (bad sign) followed by a mediocre WJC18 tournament (bad) but a good regular season as a 17 year old. He followed this up with a great season as an 18 year old and did well in the playoffs. He seems to have some talent, but I don`t see him as a star. More of a 2nd or even a 3rd line center.
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    My 2012 Best Forwards
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    Alex Galchenyuk
    Dominated his minor league team, then dominated his first year in Major Junior as a 16-17 year old with 31 goals and 83 points in 68 games. This is fantastic first-year production from a 16-17 year old, especially with the strong goal totals. He may have missed the entire year this year and is having a normal playoff, but he is an elite player and (in my opinion) the best forward in the draft. Hopefully he is not injury-prone. If he stays healthy, he is a star 1st line talent.
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    Sebastian Collberg
    Has been consistently good through his young career. Almost always a point-a-game or better in each league, up until this year. As a 17-18 year old this year, he has been stellar (except for the Eliteserien, where he did not get much ice-time). His tournament play has been fantastic and he shows that, even as a youngster, he can score and setup goals in pressure environments. I think he will be a good 2nd line NHL winger, with a possibility if being a 1st line winger.
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    Devin Shore
    Had a great Midget AAA season as a 15 year old, scoring 40 goals and 88 points in 68 games. Then had a similarly great OJHL season with Whitby, scoring 29 goals and 58 points in 41 games. He also had a terrific playoffs with 25 points in 17 games, including 6 goals. He kept his goal production at a very good level at each level and in playoffs. He also had a fantastic WJAC-19 tournament by scoring 6 points in 4 games and being named MVP. He looks like he has a promising future. He could be a 2nd forward, or better, depending on how he progresses.
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    Zach Stepan
    With only limited play, he carries the risk of not making it to the NHL, but he has good bloodlines and he has shown in his two minor league seasons to have some talent. He could be as good as a 2nd liner all the way down to being a minor-leaguer. Next year in the NCAA is critical to see if he has the 'stuff.'
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    Coda Gordon
    A tall, lanky winger with some goal-scoring ability, Gordon had a good first season in the WHL as a 17 year old with 53 points in 66 games, plus he got an important 30 goals in his first year. He could develop into a 2nd or 3rd line winger in the NHL. Next year is crucial to see where he will end up.
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    Timothy Bozon
    Had a solid season in the WHL with 36 goals and 71 points in 71 games. He has also done well in the playoffs with 4 goals in 6 games. He has some risk as he has not played a lot of pressure-packed high-level tournaments, plus Europeans usually score well when they come over from Europe to the CHL. He 'could' be 3rd line NHLer, with a chance of seeing the 2nd line.
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    Austin Cangelosi
    Had two excellent seasons in the USHS league as a 15 and 16 year old. He continued that in the USHL with another strong year, with better than a point a game plus an important 29 goals (the most he's scored, even bettering his totals from the USHS). He also had a good showing at the WJAC-19 by netting a goal and three points in five games. He has talent and could become a 2nd line winger in the NHL.
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    Mathew Dumba
    I had to include him here as I think he will be something special. He has had two fantastic WJC tournaments before the age of 18, scoring double digits as a defenceman. He could be a very, very good offensive dman. I am looking forward to see what he does next year. Now that I said this about him, watch him flop!

    Zedpher

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    Well done. I am very impressed.
    I agree, way better than guessing.
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    Saw this just now. Gotta respect someone that goes above and beyond to try to get an edge to win in fantasy hockey.


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    So a guy with a habs avatar picks galchenyuk and collberg as the best 2012 forwards? Surprising...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goatlender View Post
    So a guy with a habs avatar picks galchenyuk and collberg as the best 2012 forwards? Surprising...
    He posted this in May, a month before the draft.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goatlender View Post
    So a guy with a habs avatar picks galchenyuk and collberg as the best 2012 forwards? Surprising...
    Yeah, look at the post date before playing the homer card...


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    Lol, insult fail.

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