desharnais predictions for 2012-2013

[letangerang58]

cough cough Grigorenko cough cough

I think they would send Grigorenko back to junior if they draft him. If they do draft Grigorenko though do you think they would trade a center?

[mister_mcgoo]

Trevor Timmins won't draft Grigorenko, I'm pretty sure of that...

I wouldn't be too sure of what will happen in Montreal this coming season, the guard is changing, there's been a lot of incompetence in Habs management for the last 15 years or so and the ownership is sick of it and wants desperately to break out of that mold. How much say Timmins has actually had in the selection process is up for debate but his track record is nothing to get excited about

And even if he ends up in Montreal, the Habs have consistently waited at least a few years before bringing their prospects up with the big boys.

true, but the Habs also haven't had a top 3 pick in over 30 years so its kindof a bogus statement. I think it depends how NHL-ready he is, I think he'll get a sniff at the pros much sooner than you think, especially if there are injuries

[Gaborlick]

i would be interested to see if they do draft Grigenko and if he does make the team out of camp, if they move Plekanec.

[rufio.85]

I wouldn't be too sure of what will happen in Montreal this coming season, the guard is changing, there's been a lot of incompetence in Habs management for the last 15 years or so and the ownership is sick of it and wants desperately to break out of that mold. How much say Timmins has actually had in the selection process is up for debate but his track record is nothing to get excited about

Don't agree with you on that one. Timmins has had a pretty good record over the years. Just in 2007, you're talking about Ryan McDonagh, Max Pacioretty and P.K Subban, all in the first 43 picks. Yes he's had some misses (Giroux for example), but no one's perfect. Marc Bergevin has clearly stated in his first press conference that he considers Timmins has done a good job and that he will be at the draft table besides him.

I don't disagree with the fact that if a prospect is NHL ready, they'll play him right away. Given the lack of depth in the organization, it's very plausible. But personally, in this year's draft, I don't consider Grigorenko as a prospect who's ready to step in right away. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see. But if I have 10 bucks to bet, I'd say Montreal chooses Filip Forsberg or Alex Galchenyuk (assuming Yakupov is gone) over Grigorenko.

And if we go back to the beginning of this post, I obviously don't see any of these 3 take the number 1 or 2 center position in Montreal this year. So Desharnais has an extra year to cement his position, he earned it.

[ross10019]

I think Desharnais is a good bet to hit 60+ next year, possibly up to 70. Look at his stats at every level, all he's done is improve year after year, and his chemistry with MaxPac (and now Cole) is absolutely undeniable. He's the reason MaxPac exploded down in the AHL when they sent him down (for the last time) in 2010/11.

In your league, where SOG are not counted, Desharnais is even more valuable, he'll rack up huge numbers of assists and my bet is if he shoots a little more he can also put up 20+ goals.

But it's his low salary cap hit that does the trick. I'd be willing to bet that he was top 5 in the NHL this year in terms of points per cap dollar.

[keytolife]

I know i got no real points to prove it but DD is one of those guys that scare me. I like the little guy and got him in some leagues before the season but sold him at the high value now. Call it Michael-Grabner syndrom...

[mister_mcgoo]

Don't agree with you on that one. Timmins has had a pretty good record over the years. Just in 2007, you're talking about Ryan McDonagh, Max Pacioretty and P.K Subban, all in the first 43 picks. Yes he's had some misses (Giroux for example), but no one's perfect. Marc Bergevin has clearly stated in his first press conference that he considers Timmins has done a good job and that he will be at the draft table besides him.

So you hyper-focus in on the one good draft year he had with the Habs and ignore the rest? lol What about when they took Price? That was a good one too, you should add that to your argument.

But taking Chipchura, AK, Fischer etc over the likes of Richards, Seabrook, Brown, Parise, Getzlaf, Perry, Weber, Zajac, Krejci, Booth, Green Giroux, Lucic? like I said, at best that's nothing to get excited about. Sure hindsight is 20/20 and its impossible to catch all the prospects who are go on to be stars but when your scout is missing THIS many its cause for concern. I think where the Habs have done much better is in late round picks like Streit and Halak, but their 1st & 2nd round picks have been terrible for the most part

[rufio.85]

So you hyper-focus in on the one good draft year he had with the Habs and ignore the rest? lol What about when they took Price? That was a good one too, you should add that to your argument.

But taking Chipchura, AK, Fischer etc over the likes of Richards, Seabrook, Brown, Parise, Getzlaf, Perry, Weber, Zajac, Krejci, Booth, Green Giroux, Lucic? like I said, at best that's nothing to get excited about. Sure hindsight is 20/20 and its impossible to catch all the prospects who are go on to be stars but when your scout is missing THIS many its cause for concern. I think where the Habs have done much better is in late round picks like Streit and Halak, but their 1st & 2nd round picks have been terrible for the most part

I deliberately focused on 2007 to make a point. I'm perfectly aware that there has been misses, if you read my post correctly. Where I believe people get caught up, is when you start to say: he should have taken this guy over this one, or that one over this one. In that case, every recruiter should be fired, because they all overlooked Datsyuk, Rinne, Zetterberg, etc...

You have to look at the overall picture, has the guy consistently recruited NHL's? In Timmins' case, I would say yes. That is why I'm saying he has a good track record. Maybe it's just wording here, but I believe he's been good.

And for the record Price, McDonagh, Pacioretty, Subban are all first or second picks.

[mister_mcgoo]

I deliberately focused on 2007 to make a point. I'm perfectly aware that there has been misses, if you read my post correctly. Where I believe people get caught up, is when you start to say: he should have taken this guy over this one, or that one over this one. In that case, every recruiter should be fired, because they all overlooked Datsyuk, Rinne, Zetterberg, etc...

Missing out on the odd Euro player is forgiveable...they play halfway around the world in a different system that we have limited visibility into compared to NA players. But I'm not talking about overlooking a talented Swede or Russian, I'm talking about passing over incredibly talented home-grown players who have been in the NA system their entire lives and who a good scout should know initimately. You take a good look at that list I provdided again and then try to justify your point.

You have to look at the overall picture, has the guy consistently recruited NHL's? In Timmins' case, I would say yes. That is why I'm saying he has a good track record. Maybe it's just wording here, but I believe he's been good.

As a GM/owner I would certainly hope that my scout is giving first and second round picks that actually play in the NHL, if he's not then wtf am I paying him for !? What a baffling statement to make, I can't fathom why you think its OK to set the bar that low...a 1st round pick should not just be a player who laces up his skates in the NHL one day, he should be a player who makes an impact and improves your team...that doesn't mean they all have to be Datsyuks and Girouxs but they need to be impact players at the very least. And sure, its to be expected that sometimes it will be a swing and a miss, but when your misses outweigh your hits its not good.

Just for reference, compare Timmins 1st round picks of the last decade to those of the Flyers:

Pitkanen
Carter
Richards
Downie
Giroux
JVR
Sbisa
Couturier


you see the difference?

[Gaborlick]

How's Mcdonagh doing in NY? lol or Gomez in MTL.. HA!

DD should get around 55-60 next season. He is a good faceoff guy too which helps.

[JagrBomb]

i'd say desharnais stays at 60 or hits 65-70. even if desharnais goes into some slumps, the departure of gomez should negate that. so if desharnais doesnt hit those slumps, he should improve on his total this year.

[rufio.85]

As a GM/owner I would certainly hope that my scout is giving first and second round picks that actually play in the NHL, if he's not then wtf am I paying him for !? What a baffling statement to make, I can't fathom why you think its OK to set the bar that low...a 1st round pick should not just be a player who laces up his skates in the NHL one day, he should be a player who makes an impact and improves your team...that doesn't mean they all have to be Datsyuks and Girouxs but they need to be impact players at the very least. And sure, its to be expected that sometimes it will be a swing and a miss, but when your misses outweigh your hits its not good.

Just for reference, compare Timmins picks of the last decade to those of the Flyers:

Pitkanen
Carter
Richards
Downie
Giroux
JVR
Sbisa
Couturier


you see the difference?

Don't lose your nerve man, it's only fantasy hockey...

I'm not setting the bar low here, all I'm saying is that I consider that Timmins has done overall, a good job. Could have been better? Of course he could have, I'm not blind. Fischer and Chipchura (even if he's now a NHL regular), were bad picks. But I've never said it's ok for a first pick to lace them up one time and then leave, never even hinted that way, read my post correctly.

When I talk about the overall picture, I say that you have to consider a player for what he is, not the position he's been drafted at. To stay with the Timmins example, of course he's missed on Giroux, but so as 20 other teams. Has he been able to make good picks in later rounds? Yes he did. To me, a guy like Jaroslav Halak, I don't care if he was drafted in the first or last round, it's still a good pick. Personally, I don't think that his misses outweigh his hits, like you said, but then again that's just an opinion.

It's easy to compare to the Flyers, probably one of the best drafting teams the past decade... But I'll be fair play, let's see what Montreal has drafted in first round since Timmins is around (2003).

- Price
- Pacioretty
- McDonagh
- A. Kostitsyn
- Beaulieu / Tinordi (maybe, but it's looking good)

These are only the ones worthy of mention. Those, who in your words, ''makes an impact and improves your team''. It's less flashy than the Flyers, no doubt about it, but it's still better than many teams around the league.

Now let's have a look at the other notable picks from 2nd to last round, in the same period, for the Canadiens...

- Subban
- Halak
- Streit
- Grabovski
- Emelin
- Latendresse
- S. Kostitsyn
- D'Agostini
- Lapierre
- O'Byrne

And for the Flyers...

- Zac Rinaldo
- Andreas Nodl
- Ryan Potulny?
- Oskars Bartulis??
- Jon Matsumoto???

you see the difference?

Now, don't get me wrong, the Flyers have good draft record. I would probably prefer the list you mentioned previously as my team's core. But, when you see the big picture, I personally believe Timmins has done well. You're entitled to your opinion on that, so am I, so don't put words in my mouth.