spitball joins an nfbc slow draft

[spitball]

the rest of round 14

danks
trumbo
buchholz
tabata
rios
cpena
pagan
altuve
holland
dyoung
hunter
rmartin

draft prep, or lack there of, is starting show with some teams. some very iffy choices at this point. carlos pena?

rd 15

ogando
billingsley
ramos
desmond
heisey
duda
joyce
lily
esantana
soto
capps
boesch

i happily grab bard in this spot. another high upside pick, i've seen good projections for his 2012, and some great. when sale and feliz went two rds earlier, i was concerned bard wouldn't make it all the way back to me. i will likely be the guy drafting crow, but much later. perhaps i am too influenced by my first season in roto, 1985, when i grabbed a young lefty reliever making the move to the rotation that spring. jimmy key had a pretty good season. and career. i like the odds of a good young pitcher who starts his mlb career in the pen, has great success, then moves to the rotation.

rest of round 15
masterson
morneau

rd 16

harper
willingham
belt

with my rd 16 pick, i draft brandon belt to fill my corner. still chasing hrs, i like him for a big bounce off his rookie season. i expect his plate discipline to improve. his minor league career, and all his scouting reports attest to a great eye at the plate. if he works out, i think i am pushing 250 hrs.

i am pleased with the team so far;
1 tex
3 lawrie
CR belt
2 kipnis
S hardy
O jupton
O gordon
O heyward
O markakis
U montero

strasburg
kennedy
d hudson
garcia
bard
c perez

a young team with tons of upside. i must now draft two more quality starters, another closer, and some speed. and two catchers. i should also draft for some batting average, as i don't have a solid .300 hitter. i like that i still have a mid and an outfield spot. they are two easy positions to find sb's.

if kendrys morales falls to me in rd 17, i'll have to draft him. otherwise, i think i'll take a closer. i'm also tracking worley, oswalt, and wandy r.

[spitball]

rest of rd 16

kubel
dunn
lucroy
drew s
dunn
salty
murphy dan
jd martinez
rasmus
rodriguez w
dempster
bay

rd 17
trout
lewis
wells v
clippard
de aza
beckham
raburn
beckham
reed
alonso
chacin
smith s
worley
cahill
brantley

worley is my pick. solid peripherals, good team, great bullpen. not a lot of debate here, as i'd targeted worley pre-draft as a pitcher i'd take if he fell to me at 17. as for morales, i collected all the info i could find on his recovery and asked my ( physician ) wife about his prospects. avoid. she also advised avoiding kinsler.

rd 18 begins

cordero
mayberry
johnson

i take jim johnson. i google thornton and read that he is favourite to close, but he is also getting shopped. if he is dealt, then i don't see him closing ( unless he is shipped to the orioles...). i also consider drafting cain in this spot. i really like him this season, but there are still several players of similar ilk, and i think i will be sick if all the closers are gone before my round 19 pick. this draft has consistently over-valued closers (imo), and it wouldn't shock me to see another run virtually finishing off the remaining obvious candidates. one team drafted three closers fairly early, and a couple teams have decided to chase. that has left the door open for several more highly-ranked players to drop ( kipnis ). i don't value closers all that much in this format because they are highly volatile, and i think in order to compete in the wins and strikeout cats, you need to use seven of the nine pitching spots for starters, most of the time. i think the three closer strategy is too costly.

[spitball]

rd 18 concludes

norris
floyd
sands
oswalt
suzuki
thornton
moreland
polanco
balfour
peavy
vogolsong
guerra

rd 19

reimold
abreu
smooak
jurjjens
buehrle
bedard
headley
carp
span
collmenter
viciedo
craig
cain
sizemore
volquez

i'm surprised and pleased to have cain drop to me this round. i can see him starting out in the two hole between gordon and hos. cabrera had a career year hitting between those two last season. cain could have quite a rookie season. i'm hoping for at least twenty bags as my team is a bit short on steals. i'm glad i took johnson last round. there is nothing left but set-up guys and astros. i think i'll take a flier juan abreu if he drops way down.

rd twenty

hundley
mesoraco
aviles

aviles is my first serious reach of the draft. could be great, could be a total bust. also looked at s perez for catcher. i think a catcher/mid run is coming. decide on aviles, since 400 at bats from him in the sox line-up could really help, and i see a long list of similar catcher types still on board.

[spitball]

the rest of rd 20

scutaro
perez s
morales
furcal
pennington
soriano
la roche
casilla
jackson e
cespedes
huff
jay

rd 21

chapman
damon
gonzales a
pierre
ajp
santana j
ianetta
stauffer
wigginton
cozart
presley
nunez
leake
minor
snyder

i draft mike leake with my rd 21. now that pujols and fielder have left the division, and braun is facing 50 games, i really like n.l. central pitchers, and cincy especially. i think he makes a strong #7 starter for me. he could get lots of wins, and he improved his walk rate a lot last season over his rookie year, which makes me optimistic that his better peripheral #'s are real and lasting.

rd 22

davis ch
infante
hernandez r

i go back and forth with this pick. i need a catcher ( two until montero qualifies ), and i think hernandez will be excellent in colorado for the first half of the season, at least. i also look long at gamel. he is now the starting 1b in milwaukee, and already qualifies at third from last season. i have no place for him on the roster at this point, however. also, there are a few similar players still available, like alonso and lahair.

i may seriously regret this pick if gamel has a big year.

[spitball]

rd 22 concludes;

buck
gamel
lahair
venters
dejesus
lowrie
ruiz
nolasco
chisenhall
olivo
zambrano
liriano

rd 23

teheran
valencia
j sanchez
nova
paulino
adams
s rodriguez
capuano
hochevar
alvarez p
niese
nicasio
schafer j
brown d
jackson b

i draft j schafer with my rd 23 pick. he will provide bench depth/sb option/ and could get into the line-up after montero gains c elig. i looked at morgan in this spot as well, but he drastically reduced his sb attempts last season. his success rate has always been poor, so not that surprised. i like gambling on speed late in the draft, and on players who i think are going to run a lot, as they try to establish value. i also plan on drafting leonys martin, perhaps rd 25/6.

rd 24
mcgehee
porcello
lavarnway

lavarnway becomes my #2 catcher for now. i won't look at this position again for many rounds. i really wasn't going to take another catcher until the late thirties, but i'm surprised he is still available. i see a lot of potential value here, as his bat could get him lots of playing time.

[spitball]

the rest of rd 24

sizemore s
bailey
callaspo
helton
loney
harrison
morel
carrol
rizzo
harang
fuentes
cowgill

rd 25
stewart i
ibanez
jones ch
robertson
pastornicky
pestano
mcdonald
bartlett
giavotella
paredes
venables
salas
jones g
andino
bourgois

garret jones is my pick this round, the halfway point. in this format, which i have never played, 23 roster spots are active, 27 reserve. there are no in-season call-ups, trades, anything. so i must plan for the full season. i plan to target as many full-time bats as possible for my reserve squad, and i would like them to have multi-position eligibility. jones fills that bill. i also looked at jesus guzman for this pick, and at josh reddick. i may yet go back and grab guzman in a later round. i am planning to draft for my reserves, three 1b/3b, three 2b/ss, four outfielders, seven starters, five bullpen, and five rookies i think could be fantasy relevant this season. i've already drafted schafer, so three more outfielders to go ( jones counts against the 1b total ).

rd 26

d lee
niemann
martin ly

my second outfielder. lots of players still available that i wish to draft, including crow, lopez, abreu, brothers, perkins, d los santos, uehara, medlen, humber, blanton, alvarez, and lots more...i was a bit surprised to see pastornicky grabbed last round. i'd hoped he would last, he has some sb potential. i finally decided that the name i'd be most sick about missing would be leonys martin. my projections tell me i am short some sb's, and if martin wins the ranger cf job, he could be great this season.

[spitball]

rd 27 concludes

j d la rosa
myers br
thames
barajas
thole
humber
betancourt
allen
miller s
wood t
roberts b
young e

rd 27

arenado
ludwick
parker j
hanigan
gutierrez
torres
byrd
lopez w
romo
rosario
reddick
torrealba
wolf
betemit
pomeranz

wolf is my pick this round. he's my first reserve pitcher. he is good for 150 k's, which is the minimum i think a starter needs to get a team in order to stay atop, or near, that cat. will draft a full-time bat from the infield, next pick.

rd 28

lohse
barmes
hudson

o-dog stole 19, last season, with a bit of pop. i think i need to draft at least one more full-time mid. that will be the priority next round, as well as picking a reserve for the bullpen.

[spitball]

rd 28

murphy
barney
tomlin
peacock
ellis
scott
snyder
chen
vlad
theriot
mosely
arietta

rd 29

pavano
colon
ross
moscoso
crow
alvarez h
vazquez
holland
bothers
iwakua
krod
burnett
uehara
melancon
tejeda r

i finally grab my first bench bullpen arm. uehara because of the trade rumours ( baltimore, i have johnson ) and he is quality.

rd 30
adams
parra
f d l santos

faustino is in the closer mix for oakland. he has the best fastball of the group. he is a longshot, but oakland does not shy away from giving unknowns a chance to close.

rest of round 30

morgan
plouffe
francisco j
carpenter d
vargas
volstad
rivera
figgins
davis r
duffy
sanchez f
medlen

rd 31
gregerson
bloomqvist
hultzen
myers w
iglesias
huphes p
peralta j
dickey
devine
bauer
hernandez
marshall
rolen
benoit
bastardo

rolen; another full-time bat. i now have at least three back-ups at each position except catcher. i see lots of names drop off my list the last two rounds including several rookies i assumed would last until deeper in the draft. hard to believe we are going another twenty.

rd 32
crain
lillibridge
abreu

juan abreu may close. he may spend the season in AAA. worth a gamble at this point. i plan to spend the next few rounds on longshot pitching options, with the odd hitter mixed in.

[spitball]

the rest of rd 32

soriano
gee
frazier
bernadina
bogusevic
perkins
ellis aj
lyles
izturic m
flowers
saunders
ryan b

rd 33

taylor m
zito
delgado r
robinson t
beaven
braden
chen wy
milone
rauch
wells c
jacob turner
parmelee
blanton
aceves
d'arnaud t

i like blanton at this point in the draft. great team, great bullpen, great peripherals last season. solid gamble to back up my starters.

rd 34

quintero
samardzija
cashner

at this point, why not. andrew wouldn't be the first longshot pitcher to have a good year at petco...he could close if/when street gets injured/traded. he could start. he could go on the d.l. again. and again. i like the way my bench is developing. i still need another ss to back up the infield, and more starters, because they are always getting injured. still lots of talent available.

[spitball]

rd 34

cishek
guzman
aoki
molina
richard
sanchez
matsui
seager
schierholz
broxton
kotchman
britton

rd 35

turner justin
kennedy
blake
surkamp
furbush
hafner
mcgee
wood
ross
getz
w davis
coghlan
lynn
descalso
karstens

lynn this round. if he ends up starting, i like his chances in the n.l. central on this team.

rd 36

drabek
narveson
cobb

similar to above, if he ends up starting, i think he makes a good gamble in this spot. i will be drafting a couple hitters with my next picks. i think i need to add some depth.

[spitball]

rd 36

estrada
laporta
cervelli
punto
blanks
wada
chavez
lyon
keppinger
young chris
piniero
marson

rd 37

erlin
hairston jr
noesi
kendrick
guyer
santiago
conger
dirks
crawford
greene
uribe
jones an
blackmon
gomes
ross ty

my pick this round is blackmon. and i grab a back-up catcher, in rd 38, flores.

rd 38

guthrie
lannan
flores
matusz
lidge
grandal
carmona
kalish
dotel
wood br
green ty
gregg
arroyo
nix
o'flaherty

rd 39

paulino
pena
wallace
mcclellen
sonnanstine
campana
gomez
slowey
williams
downs
borbon
lopez
lombardozzi
sipp
montgomery

i draft lombardozzi this round

rd 40

peralta w
johnson c
kawasaki

i go WAY off the board and gamble on the mariners 30 yr old ss, spring training invite from japan. why not.

harden
gentry
nelson
sweeney
mclouth
downs
anderson
jaso
castillo
pelfrey
hanahan
gwynn

rd 41

fuld
blackburn
correia
adams
whiteside
maholm
janssen
castro
wang
constanza
eovaldi
fox
ramirez r
kottaras
canzler

i take ramerez here, as he may be second in line for saves, if/when francisco dl's.

rd 42

dobbs
banuelos
lecure

lecure had good peripherals last season, and could sneak into the rotation on a very strong team. i am going to continue to draft 'maybe-starters' from the n.l. central.

several teams seem to have lost interest at this point. perhaps half the league is still attempting to add potential. i think these picks are critical. there will be injuries, and demotions. in roto, you must have back-ups for your back-ups. even if you have a productive player on your bench and never have the chance to add them to your active roster, at least they are on your bench, and not on a competitor's team and hurting you.
i am happy with my bench so far. there are a couple more pitchers still available that i think i'll draft if they get back to me. otherwise, i'll be looking now at some "home-run shot" rookie picks.

[spitball]

rest of rd 42

schumaker
shoppach
colvin
gose
cecil
federowicz
alfonzo
richards
green
oviedo
c carter
manny

rd 43

garcia f
feldman
paxton
darnell
treanor
machado
cooper
dominiquez
lindstrom
ranklyn
mcgowan
belisle
gorzelanny
donald
below

rd 44

cole
d'arnaud
parnell

gorz and parnell are my choices 43/44. i like gorz , he could start w the nats, and do well for this up and coming team. parnell, like ramirez, is in the mix for saves w the mets. parnell has the best fastball of the bunch. if he gets it under control, he will dominate.

rest of 44

mujica
nishioka
pacheco
skaggs
hughes
wells
affeldt
meek
cox
cabrera
jackson
duncan

rd 45

lowe
guillen
ankiel
sanchez
liddi
taillon
casilla
francisco
mcdonald
wheeler
thome
peterson
middlebrooks
denorfia
albequerque

rd 46

eveland
morton
g brown

i go rookie long-shot 45/46. middlebrooks may come fast, and youk is always injuring some part of himself. i am not sold on the sf outfield. would not shock me to see brown get a shot later in the summer if he kills AAA.

four picks left. i'm running out of ideas...

feel free to suggest any rookies you think might have an impact in 2012

[spitball]

rest of 46

kelly
white
familia
beckham
lee
wood
lee hs
hernandez l
saito
valdez
outman
westbrook

rd 47

johnson
fulodome
hairston
boxberger
lee
dice k
baker
ruffin
chatwood
harvey
gyorko
marrero
marte
burnett
martinez ch

rd 48

happ
paul
millwood

starling marte has had a great 12 months, concluding with a strong winter ball season. he could add some valuable stats later in the year. millwood in seattle? not likely to help much, but stranger things have happened.

oliver
norris
wheeler
giambi
overgay
sogard
vizcaino
bergersen
moore
marquis
wuertz
miles

rd 49
kouzmanoff
patterson
martinez f
benson
gathright
mccoy
ka'ahuie
frieri
mckenry
takahashi
detwiler
christian
vitters
ordonez
miley

rd 50...

hammel
francis
lemahieu
lindblom
smith
wieland
rendon
recker
padilla
saunders
jarolman
lincoln
owings
morales f
dyson


i finish with two more youngsters, vitters, and lemahiue, both of whom had excellent fall league results. i drafted the reserve with a focus on having adequate back-ups at each position, balanced with some younger players likely to start in AAA, but who could contribute later in the season. i looked for players with up-side rather than safe picks, because the totals needed to win these leagues are very high. you have to draft well, and get lucky.

i'll update this draft/league at some point late in spring training.

the joe hill bums;

c montero, hernandez, lavarnway, flores
1b tex, belt, g jones
3b lawrie, rolen, middlebrooks, vitters
2b, kipnis, hudson, lombardozzi, lemahiue
ss, hardy, kawasaki, aviles
of, upton, gordon, heyward, markakis, cain, j schafer, l martin, blackmon, g brown, marte

sp, strasburg, kennedy, hudson d, garcia, bard, worley, leake, wolf, blanton, cobb, millwood
rp, c perez, j johnson, uehara, f d l santos, lynn, r ramirez, lecure, gorzelanny, parnell, abreu, cashner