spitball joins an nfbc slow draft

[spitball]

15 team mixed, 5x5 roto. 50 rounds. weekly line-ups. standard 23 man active ( 2C,1,3,CR,2,S,MI,5O, U, 9P ) and 27 man reserve. 900 min innings. no post-draft transactions. none. nada.

slow draft; online, each team has max 8 hours for each pick. i pick 13th and will post picks as they happen.

my pre-draft plan; grab lots of hr's first. likely four or five hitters before my first pitcher. at #13 and 18, i'm looking at some combo of fielder, cargo, upton, longoria, granderson, and teixeira. at the end of the third, i'm bullish on lawrie, and may grab panda w the forth pick. if posey is available at the end of the fifth, i'll take him, then grab my first starter at the start of the 6th. i intend to use 7 starters and two closers most weeks.

target #'s, .275 900 225 880 160 and 1200 1.19 3.45 85 70. hitting each of those totals should put my team into contention. we shall see...

[fastdogs]

no adds at all? draft and play with them?
I'm in a very sharp mock right now, Granderson went 15 and Teix 19, the rest were taken by 18. Sandoval went 3rd round Lawrie 4th, 3rd basemen got scooped up very early
Hopefully theres no pig farmer from Idaho in your league. good luck, looking forward to updates

[spitball]

" no adds at all? draft and play with them?
I'm in a very sharp mock right now, Granderson went 15 and Teix 19, the rest were taken by 18. Sandoval went 3rd round Lawrie 4th, 3rd basemen got scooped up very early
Hopefully theres no pig farmer from Idaho in your league. good luck, looking forward to updates"

yeah, i'm very tempted to grab granderson w #13, and follow up w tex at 18. though i could run into average troubles later in the draft as i fill in sb's. if longoria is there at #13, i might grab him, and lawrie rd 4/5. 3rd base is so shallow that taking two premium puts pressure on the rest of the teams.

no adds, no trades. must build a roster capable of dealing with injuries and job loss. not a lot of room on the roster for september rookies or fringy arms.

lindy isn't in this draft. whew. i'll be competing in the three nfbc auctions ( al, nl, and mixed ), in las vegas march 30-apr1. ken magner is in the mixed, shawn childs in the a.l. and kj duke is in the n.l. those will be tough

looking at past year results, not many teams with great bullpens contended, and lots of winners with very few saves. looks like one winning strategy is to quasi-punt saves and build a deep hitting squad. the closer run starts in earnest middle of round nine. by the end of round twelve, all but farnsworth, betancourt, francisco, and capps, are gone. i think grabbing the remaining good hitters and starters during those rounds will yield safer results. after rd 20, and as late as rd 30, there are still thornton, balfour, pestano, wlopez, fdelosantos, devine, abreu, and perkins. enough save potential to finish ahead of the teams that punt saves, while not using a valuable <20 pick on the bullpen.

[spitball]

with pick # 13, i draft justin upton. others available; fielder, peds, kershaw. my decision came down to upton or fielder. i have planned all along to draft tex with my second round pick, so upton is the choice. if fielder DOES sign with texas, i may regret this one.

first 12 picks of round one;
pujols
kemp
votto
miggy
ellsbury
tt
gonzo
bautista
grandy
cargo
cano
longoria

[spitball]

with the 18th pick, i draft mark teixeira, my plan all along. tex has been unlucky the last couple seasons, with unsustainably low babip. i'm looking for a bounce in b.a. and the rbi's to rise as well.

also on the board, kinsler and mcK. i read details of kinsler's recent medical procedure to my wife, a doctor. she advised i stay away. i thi

since i drafted upton;

fielder
kinsler
hram
peds

my adjusted hitting draft targets .275+ , 700, 160, 690, 140

[spitball]

three rounds done and round four underway.

after i drafted tex, rd 2 concluded;
hamilton
reyes
kershaw
stanton
wright
halladay
verlander
lee
mcK
holliday
pence
crawford

rd3
santana c
beltre
felix
rzimmer
hos
cc
vmart ( about 20 mins later, the news broke )
timmy
panda
cruz
napoli
castro

with pick #43, i drafted brett lawrie. i believe in the bat, see sb projections between 25-30, and i would have been sick if i passed, with the intention of waiting six picks, to get him at #48, and lose him to one of the two owners picking after me.

rd3 concluded
ascab
aroid ( i think this guy takes lawrie if i don't. 3b looks very shallow )

first two picks of rd4
jennings ( i was seriously thinking about taking jennings at #48. though i am happy with the guy i got )
hamels

with pick #48, i draft strasburg. i am aware of the reported innings limit. i think that is the sole reason he dropped so far. at fangraphs, rotochamp forecasts 175 innings, 15 w's, 208 s/o's, 2.37 and .9. that would be golden. i also considered ryan braun at this point. i goggled all the news i could find, and agree that there is only the smallest hope that he avoids a 50 game suspension. i think the lawrie and strasburg picks were gambles enough already...

my hitting targets are now 615 135 605 115 and my pitching targets are 60 70 1.19 3.45 1000.

i think i should try to draft 50 sb and another ace w my next two picks. that would give me projected totals of +100 hrs, +100 sb, and two solid starters with my top 6.

[fastdogs]

"my pre-draft plan; grab lots of hr's first. likely four or five hitters before my first pitcher."
I see I'm not the only 1 who struggles with executing an early draft plan. I can't fault you for not taking 4-5 hitters first tho, and besides taking a SP 4th you have to be quite happy with your start
Still the single most striking thing I'm seeing is the # of 3rd basemen going so early this year. Hope you don't mind if I hijack your thread from time to time and comment on the interesting draft

[spitball]

no worries. i was a bit shaken after the player i'd planned to take #4, d jennings, was drafted two spots ahead. yeah, 5 3b in rd 3. i'm sold on lawrie. hope he stays healthy.

i think i made a good choice, going pitcher at 4, because the rest of the round has been mostly starters. i like to gamble through-out the draft on players with up-side. strasburg has massive up-side, i think.

i read lindy's interview, where he mentions that he attempts to draft 100 hr's, 100 sb's, and two aces with his first 6 picks. if i try that, then i should be looking bourn or gardner rd 6, and another ace, rd 5. quandary.

the player i was targeting pre-draft, for rd 5, posey, is projected to still be there, and i really like posey this season.

[spitball]

the rest of rd 4, after the strasburg pick;

rd 4
cjw
bruce
weaver
braun,
greinke,
haren,
bju
myoung
price
lester
mccann
uggla

rd 5
andrus
posey ( yeah, two catchers b2b )
rollins
phillips
kimbrel
aram
zobrist
morse
youk
storen
victorino
montero

at this point i'd planned to grab another ace, then either bourn or gardner w rd 6 pick. but there are three strong multi-cat of still available, including a personal fav, alex gordon. i debate gordon, ajones, or choo, and decide on gordon. very tough call. i like the way the royals roster is shaping up this season, and i think the top of the order will be potent. baltimore looks a mess. i'm worried choo may be breaking down, and won't run as much as past seasons.

still on the board are gallardo, kennedy, cain, and bumgarner. i decide on gallardo for my rd 6 pick. love them k's and he has improved his control each season making his ratio a plus cat as well.

after i draft gordon w pick #73, rd 5 concludes;

ajones
utley

rd 6 starts with mauer, then the guy ahead of me picks gallardo. dammit.

hate that sends me back to my notes...wieters? bourn? what now. i take kennedy. i usually avoid small right-handed pitchers, but kennedy doesn't seem to throw hard enough to hurt himself. he plays for a good team in a crap division, has a good pen....we'll see. first time ever drafting two pitchers this early. rd seven MUST be a hitter. unless latos is available...

[spitball]

just at the end of rd nine. i followed through and drafted heyward. gamble gamble.

here are the picks rd 6 through nine;

kendrick
konerko
papelbon
shields
weeks
bourn
choo
cain
wieters
stubbs
romero
pineda

rd7
reynolds
bumgarner
werth
johnson
moore
darvish
hart
gardner
latos
luebke
wainwright
cuddyer
hudson dan
gio g
berkman

rd 8

rivera
freeman
hardy
garza
beachy
gordon
howard
aybar
ethier
francouer
ichiro
avila
axford
jeter
j zim

rd 9
butler
al ram
bell
putz
bonifacio
wilson
c young
carpenter
beckett
ortiz
maybin
bourjos
heyward
freese
valverde

rd 10
hanson t
bailey a

in addition to heyward in rd 9, i also drafted dan hudson rd 7, and jj hardy rd 8. i am still chasing hr's in this draft and putting off drafting a closer. i have the next pick, and will post again shortly.

[spitball]

i settled on markakis rd 10. nervous about the recent surgery, but again, i think you have to draft for upside. i think nick is young enough to have a bounce-back season, and i may need his high average if heyward struggles again. tempted to go looking for another starter with that pick, but decided to wait and see who falls to me in round 11. jimenez, marcum, scherzer, cueto, t hudson and a sanchez are still on the board.

i revised all my category targets upwards. i am now trying to accumulate 1100 runs, 280 hrs, 1050 rbi, and 170 sb. also, 105 wins, 70 s, 1300 k's.

the roster so far;
1 tex
3 lawrie
s hardy
o upton
o gordon
o heyward
o markakis

p strasburg
p kennedy
p hudson

[spitball]

two more picks by the way. huge closer run started just after the markakas pick from round 10. in all, 12 closers drafted by the time for my round 11. ugh. my choices were between, chris perez, kyle farnsworth, frank francisco, matt capps, johnson, and someone from the white sox, a's or astros. so naturally i drafted jesus montero. i believe john sickels when he writes that he believes in montero's bat. i'm hoping montero will qualify for catcher before the end of june. i'll be drafting several extra outfielders and will look to swap one of them in and my #2 catcher out.

rd 10
morrow
santos
goldschmidt
crisp
soria
hanrahan
nathan
motte
madsen
c lee
walden
jansen

rd 11

street
weeks
a sanchez
beltran
betancourt
marcum
league
marmol
walker
lind
jimenez
ike davis
montero
farnsworth
y escobar

rd 12

swisher
prado
chris perez

i hold my nose and draft perez. i'd planned on grabbing a 2b with this pick, and taking two closers rds 13/14, but with so few left, i felt i had to draft at least one at this point. i did set a very low save target pre-draft of 70. that now may be tough to reach . i'll also be looking to draft pestano at some point.

[fastdogs]

bummer on the monster closer run inbetween picks. I've seen worse then Perez. I'd certainly try for at least 1 more kinda ugly option in the draft at some point and several closer wanna-be's from other teams.70's going to be rough! bad league to be left out in a closer run. Wonder how many will punt saves altogether? I'm not a good enuf drafter and like my adds too much for this kinda league.
Interesting draft so far, will comment more soon

[spitball]

first time i've ever played this format, though scoresheet is similar in that you draft 35, then have three more in-season drafts. essential that your team has good back-ups at all positions. and yeah, i did a lot of research into every bullpen anticipating that i'd be getting the short end at closer. i've a long list of potential closers-in-waiting. i plan to draft at least five somewhere in rounds 25-50.

[spitball]

the rest of rd 12

fowler
francisco
cueto
hellickson
encarnnacion
scherzer
hudson t
revere
melkyc
moustakas
gaby sanchez
sale

rd 13

espinosa
feliz
johnson k
peralta j
fister
morrison
escobar a
quentin
molina
ackley
roberts
hill

2b run leaves me with kipnis, a huge upside and a big gamble, given his k-rate. he could slump badly if he starts chasing pitches. the safer choice would be altuve, but i've been chasing hr's all draft. kipnis. but not until my rd 14, because one of the teams drafting after me had peds, and other has kinsler and utley. they both need starters, so i draft garcia, whom i think is the second best availalable. i am hoping that the pitcher i think will have a great season will drop to me in rd 15, bard.

garcia
jackson a
kuroda

rd 14

mccarthy
jp arc
kipnis

i must draft c,c , corner, mid, and outfield. i need 300+ runs, 50+ hrs, about 300 rbi's, and 50+ steals. i am glad that i continued to stress hrs throughout the draft. i've projected the totals of all the other teams, and i am doing very well in all four cumulative cats for hitters. first in hrs. i also like my four starters, though i am getting nervous about finding three more quality arms, and another closer. if available, bard will be my next pick.