Reply With QuoteNow you know what it feels like to be me lol.
Sucks buddy...really sucks.. I've cried myself to sleep many...many times this year.
He's got a 0.01 lead in GAA and we're tied up in Save %. Pretty HUGE swing considering it was all due to just one game from each of our sides. Not surprising considering Quick let in 5 on 31 shots I guess.
He's got Elliott at home to PHX today, so I think if he does well (most likely given Blues at home) he'll clinch the title.
For Saturday:
-I've got Quick (@SJ), Rinne (COL) and just in case either one of those guys sits, I just also picked up Hedberg (OTT), and Bernier as back-ups.
-He's got Thomas (BUF), Elliott (@DAL), and Kipper (ANA).
-If he's smart... he'll learn from my lesson and play Elliott tonight who's more or less a sure thing at home, to clinch the save %, and sit all his players on saturday.
It's really shitty how this situation unfolded for me, but in light of everything that happened, I think at the end of the day, if I were in the same position as I was yesterday, with 10 minutes left till puck drop of the Kings game and all the information I had... I would've still done the same thing. Kipper was posting a .970+ save % at the time with 15 minutes left to go in the game, and he had Elliott @ home on deck for today... I thoroughly analyzed my options with the information I had at the time and made the call which turned out to be disastrous.
It's kind of funny, but I suppose my over-analytical nature and my greed is what killed me here... my original plan was to just bench both, forget about the games and just head out with the boys for dinner and some drinks and check the results after I got home, which in hindsight would have been a huge blessing, but then I realized (rather unfortunately) that I had the advantage of being able to preview 2 periods of the Flames game before deciding which is what killed me haha.
Last edited by blayze; April 6, 2012 at 11:37 AM.
Now you know what it feels like to be me lol.
Sucks buddy...really sucks.. I've cried myself to sleep many...many times this year.
IDK. I think it's important to be very analytical.Originally Posted by blayze
I'm very analytical and my advice (based on everything I know about GAA & SV% fluctuations) was to bench Quick.
Just out of curiousity.
Can you type out your GAA & SV% standings today?
(We have a link from your stats yesterday, attached in first post).
It would be a good learning exercise (for all of us) to study what today would have been had you benched Quick.
Yesterday it was:
2.17GAA (you), 0.925sv% (you)
2.18GAA (him), 0.924sv% (him)
Obviously, you would have been at same numbers if you had benched Quick.
So the more interesting thing is... Did his numbers get better with Kippers outing?
Last edited by Pengwin7; April 6, 2012 at 12:41 PM.
To answer your question, his numbers got better but it's hard to say by how much - rounded off, they are the same, meanwhile my GAA is 2.19 and save % is 0.924. Kipper got the win, posted a save % of .941 and a GAA of 2.00, so although rounded off his numbers are the same, he's in a better spot today than yesterday.
Your advice was sound and it's easy to look back in hindsight and say benching Quick would have been better. However, you need to remember that when I made my decision, I had more information than you guys did when you suggested your advice in the thread yesterday morning.
The analysis is different because:
1) I had the benefit (or rather dis-benefit as it turns out) of knowing that Kipper had a GAA of <1.00, a save % of ~.970, and was likely to get the W with 10 minutes left in the game (he gave up the last goal near the end of the game).
2) I knew the opposing GM had Elliott at home against the Yotes tonight (which I failed to mention in the original post) - Elliott is hot, the Blues are unstoppable at home, and the Yotes aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut.
These are the shoes you have to put yourself into, because that was situation. Presuming Elliott pulls off another solid game at home, it's not difficult to fathom he would tie me on either of those categories, which would end up putting the onus on me to start Quick and Rinne on Saturday to beat him, and Quick's saturday match-up is against the sharks on the road, whereas his match-up last night was at home, coming off an insane hot streak where he posted 2 shutouts in 3 games.
Playing Quick, at the time, gave me the following benefits:
1) If Kipper got the win (which he looked likely to do) and Elliott gets the win tonight at home, he would only be 1W behind me, with potentially 2 games on saturday for each of us, so suddenly another category is in play and the extra W's become very valuable
2) If I bench my guys and Kipper/Elliott post solid games (Kipper's was almsot already done), then I'd have to play Saturday on the ROAD against the sharks and avalanche... I'd rather play Quick in the home game
3) LA was 7-2-1 in their last 10, and as I mentioned, Quick was one fire with 2 shutouts in his last 3 games... up until last night, the Kings had given up 1 goal in their last 3 games
4) More flexibility to decide whether to start one or both my guys on saturday, instead of being forced to play both of them and rolling the dice
Not saying I made the right decision, it was actually a very tough decision as you can tell by my live thought process in the posts above, but given the information in points 1 and 2, I probably would make the same decision all over again. I never would have imagined that it would be a 6-5 game or that Quick would let in 5, I think the only person in this thread who thought that was likely was Gotlaid and his rationale was the "hockey gods".
Interesting learnings, that's for sure - I'm glad you guys were involved.
Last edited by blayze; April 6, 2012 at 3:24 PM.
Sorry bud, H2H playoffs suck! The final round should really last three or four weeks.
12 team Full Dynasty w cap. 13F, 7D, 2G, 5B.
G 4.25, A 2.75, PPP 1.5, SHP 3, Hits 0.4, Blocks 0.5, PIM 0.25, DFP 1
W 5 OTL 1 SO 6 SV 0.25 L-1 GS 1
F:Stamkos, C Stew, R Johansen, B Dubinsky, Max Pac, Umberger, B Ryan, D Backes, T Ruutu, Lucic, Ott, MSL, Heatley, C Kunitz, J Benn, L Adam
D: C Fowler, Kronwall, A Goligoski, JM Liles, M Giordano, K Letang, N Nikitin, R Josi
G: J Quick, A Niemi, C Anderson, Rinne
Pretty sure this is a roto league we're talking about...lol.
hahahahahaha... sorry dude. Was funny to read this thread after I knew the outcome. Was a cliffhanger not knowing whether you'd start him or not until you called that audible
Well Elliott getting lit up should help your cause, if he lets in a few more you could be back to square 1 and once again you can debate on whether or not you start Quick tomorrow night! Ahhhh the joys of fantasy hockey...
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
Are you questioning my logic of utilizing hockey gods as my rationale in starting/benching players?
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
GUESS WHAT BOYS
The hockey gods have blessed me (Gotlaid - I'll never make fun of you again)... the opposing GM's team's goalies have unexpectedly crumbled... with Elliot letting in 4 goals at home last night, and Thomas letting in 3 goals just now... so that leaves us DEAD EVEN.
I have no idea what happens in the event of a tie in a YAHOO ROTO pool... do both players get awarded first place?
In either case... I'm almost back to SQUARE ONE:
-I've clinched the Wins category
-My current LIVE GAA/Save % is 2.19 / 0.924
-The opposing GM's LIVE GAA/Save % is 2.20 / 0.924
-The opposing GM is done... no more games tonight, so ball is in my court
I can virtually guarantee a tie for first, or I can start QUICK tonight and go for the win if I can get that 0.924 up to 0.925. HOWEVER, if Quick has another monumental collapse and I fall to 0.923, I'll lose the pool.
I have reason to believe that I'm close to the 0.925 threshold because as you'll recall from my very first post, that was what I started at before Quick's 5 goal shit show the other night.
What do you guys think??? I've got till 10:30 to decide...
GOD I LOVE FANTASY HOCKEY!!!
do a quick check... go under my team... team log, it should give you all the stats for svs made and shots against to let you know how close you really are...
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
Personally I'd bench... tieing for first is better than coming in 2nd IMO...
Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12
I tried that last time dude, it doesn't work... it doesn't report the Saves because it's not a scoring category!
See attached... maybe I'm doing it wrong
Could you check your "team log" page to confirm?
Do we both actually tie for first? I did a search in yahoo fantasy pools FAQ database, but they only give tie-breaking protocols for H2H...
Yet another wrinkle: If Smith posts a shut-out and I bench Quick I'll lose... because the Smith owner is behind me by one single shut-out lol
Can't believe the whole season is going to come down to the very last single game! Talk about shit hitting the fan!!!
Last edited by blayze; April 7, 2012 at 8:54 PM.
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