I'm in a huge pickle... REP for good answers

[blayze]

Here's the situation... it's complex so please bear with me (the attached jpeg will help illustrate):

-I'm neck and neck for the championship in my Yahoo Winners' ROTO league with 2nd place (GOON SQUAD) - only 0.5 points in the overall standings separates us.
-I'm #1 in W, GAA and SV% (see attached screenshot - 12 points is the max)
-Goon Squad is literally behind me in GAA and SV% by 0.01 and 0.01 (again - see attached)
-I think it's pretty safe to say I'm going to win the W category so wins are NOT a priority...Goon Squad is tied with another team in Wins (both at 83) while I'm at 87
-At this point, Goon Squad has nothing to lose, so he's going to start all his goalies in hopes of catching up to me in the GAA and SV%
-I have both Quick and Rinne on my team, and tomorrow night, they've both got favourable home match-ups against SJ (quick) and DAL (rinne).
-Goon Squad has Thomas (@OTT) and Kipper (VAN) tomorrow... (his third goalie is Elliot, but I'll deal with that after tomorrow night)

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION - DO I:
1) Bench my goalies tomorrow and let him come to me... I'm in the lead, let him start his goalies, and if one of them has a bad game, then I'll pretty much clinch the GAA & SV% categories as well. BUT if his goalies both have strong games, he'll move ahead of me with only 2 games left on the weekend to catch up.

2) Play one OR both my goalies... in hopes they'll put up strong enough games to clinch all 3 goalie cats for me (one more win to clinch W, but I'm more concerned about clinching GAA & SV%). If one or both of them blow up, and Goon Squad has strong games, then I will pretty much lose the pool.

I'm leaning towards a direction, but I'd like to hear your thoughts first (except you b0ndon... you stay way bastard...jk...sorta).

[Bnhershy]

well first of all, Thomas isn't making the trip to Ottawa. so that's a start. additionally, Kipper against Vancouver is a tough matchup. Knowing all this, i think either option is equally sound here. the thing that tips the scale for me is the fact that you can clinch the wins category. I'd start your guys, see how they and Kipper play, and if you increase your lead in sav% and gaa, bench your guys saturday. if the opposite happens, start your guys saturday.

that's how i see it. it's too early to put it in your opponent's hands IMO

[hockeyrobot]

My first instinct would be the wait and see approach because you have such good numbers that he's going to need an unreal effort to beat you. You do have two great goalies but they're playing two teams fighting for their lives so you never know. As for his goalies, the Bruins are likely sitting a bunch of players and Thomas reportedly didn't even make the trip to Ottawa.

After diving into it a bit more I noticed that the Flames/Nucks game is on a 9 tomorrow, so would you be able to monitor to it and see how it's playing out and make a decision on starting Quick based off of that?

[blayze]

JUST HAD A BRILLIANT STROKE OF SELF-PROCLAIMED GENIUS: (edit - maybe not so genius because hockeyrobot posted the same thought I had above )

The LA game starts at 10:30 EST time.

Goon Squad's BOS game starts at 7:30 and the CGY game starts at 9:00.

I've never really tried this, but when does YAHOO lock daily line-ups? Is it just before each player's game time, or is the WHOLE ROSTER locked just before the first puck drop of the first game of the night (ie: CBS style)?

I'm thinking I can sit back and see how the Boston game unfolds... and if Timmy Thomas blows up, or if Kipper gets off to a horrible start against VAN, then I can sit Quick, but if htey both look good, then I'll have to start Quick.

Anyone know how YAHOO daily line-up locks work?!?!

[SPOILER]

In yahoo, I'm pretty sure you can adjust your lineup right until game time for each individual player...wait and see approach is a solid option.

[Bnhershy]

they lock 5 mins before the game. yes, if you have the luxury of being able to log on after you see how kipper starts then that's an additional advantage. but once again, Thomas will not play tomorrow.

[shovelguy]

I think you will be safe in starting Quick tomorrow as I anticipate the Sharks might be coming down from a huge win against the Stars. The Kings are playing Sutter-esque shut down hockey right now and I don't expect more than 2 goals from the Sharks.

Rinne on the other hand has had below 0.9 SV% outings 5 out of his last 8 starts and is against a Dallas team that will be fighting for their playoff lives. And I never heard much about the illness that was ailling him to have him scratched last game. If you want to play it really safe, I'd have him on the bench if you don't need the wins.

[hockeyrobot]

Ha we think alike.

Yes for daily lineups you can make changes right up until the game begins, or actually 5 minutes before it begins.

[bud369]

Well according to Daily Faceoff, Thomas didn't come on the road trip and the probable starter for the B's is Khudobin, so thats one less game to worry about. Odds are Kipper will start and if he decides to play him, I can't see him having a great game due to Vancouver's tendency to explode offensively at times.

Both your goalies look like insta-starts however they are facing two teams fighting for their playoff lives, though so are the Kings. If I were to start one of the two, it would likely be Quick against San Jose strictly due to the Sharks' trouble scoring and Quick being a monster. That being said, I would suggest keeping an eye to see if Kipper is playing tomorrow. If neither of his goalies are, I say sit your goalies and put the heat on him (who btw according to your attached pic is up by .01 GAA, not you up by both, but I digress)

Your goalies have Colorado and the Sharks again Saturday while his teams face Buffalo (who could be out of it come then) and Anaheim. I somewhat worry about the Anahiem matchup because their scoring fluxuates so much, but I believe that is a risk worth taking.

Edit: Everyone beat me to the punch, spent too much time researching :P

[blayze]

Thanks guys - your posts have been immensely helpful. Thomas being out does help a ton.

I *think* the strategy here is:
1) bench Rinne for sure given his poor starts recently and his mystery "illness"
2) bench Quick to start the night...
3) keep a close eye on the vancouver game

4) if kipper is playing lights-out, then start Quick
or
4) if kipper is shitting the bed - keep Quick on the bench

If anyone has any different views, please share... I have till tomorrow evening to decide.

Also... are you guys absolutely SURE that line-ups lock *5 min* before game time? I don't want to push it too close in case I miss it by a few minutes

[Bnhershy]

If you're worried about the minutes and seconds, wait till like 10 or 15 mins before. but historically i've seen rosters locked a minute or two before the scheduled game time

[TheRook]

i think you have to do it.

For one, i say go down swinging. Better to play your guys who got you here than to sit them and lose.

You have to look at the matchup and they both favor you. Both goalies have two games left ( Quick - home and away with SJ and Rinne - Home to Dal and away to Col) and both play home games tomorrow and an away game on Saturday.

I think i would prefer to play them with them at home and then have the decision to sit them if i need to on their away game.

Home record:

Quick is 19-10-4, 1.62 GAA, 0.939 SV%
Rinne is 24-8-5, 2.39 GAA, 0.922 SV%

their road record:

Quick is 16-11-7, 2.17 GAA, 0.923 SV% (2 games - 2.43 GAA and .932 SV % in SJ)
Rinne is 18-10-3, 2.49 GAA, 0.921 SV% (1 game - 1.00 GAA and .970 SV % in Col)

Not bad road records but better home records. I would prefer to go with my studs at home. If for some reason you drop below in one of those categories, i would still feel confident with playing them on the road to finish it out.

To me its a no brainer, i start them and look to extend my league in those categories.

[hockeyrobot]

If you're worried about the minutes and seconds, wait till like 10 or 15 mins before. but historically i've seen rosters locked a minute or two before the scheduled game time

Yeah I can't seem to find it in Yahoo's "Help" section. I even tried to create a new MLB league to see if they'd explain what the difference between all of the options are, but they do not.

It is definitely VERY close to game time; maybe I just assumed it was 5 minutes. Just be sure to have Quick either playing or benched (depending on what you need) with about 10 minutes to go because then if you get caught, you'll still have your desired play.

[TheRook]

Thanks guys - your posts have been immensely helpful. Thomas being out does help a ton.

I *think* the strategy here is:
1) bench Rinne for sure given his poor starts recently and his mystery "illness"
2) bench Quick to start the night...
3) keep a close eye on the vancouver game

4) if kipper is playing lights-out, then start Quick
or
4) if kipper is shitting the bed - keep Quick on the bench

If anyone has any different views, please share... I have till tomorrow evening to decide.

Also... are you guys absolutely SURE that line-ups lock *5 min* before game time? I don't want to push it too close in case I miss it by a few minutes

I might be lonely in this opinion but i think i might start Quick no matter what. Probably bench Rinne though.

My logic, if Kipper is having a great game, i need Quick to play, but if kipper is having a shitty game that allows Quick to also have a shitty game and I am still in the lead but if Quick has a good game it makes me lock up the cats right here right now. The chances of Quick having a good game, especially this year, is pretty high.

I dont have to stress about it on the weekend. I can just sit my guys and be good.

[Maaaasquito]

I dunno I have a bad feeling about Quick...

I've watched the last 2 Shark games and they seem to be getting a few lucky breaks with defensive breakdowns, being at the right spot at the right time, so I think the hockey gods are shining down on them after a pretty dreadful year.

I have a feeling they're going to score a few cheapies and win the division over the Kings.

That top line of Marleau, Pavelski and Thornton have really stepped it up the last week or so, and they're playing a very strong puck possession down low cycling game. I have a feeling they're gonna be hungry tomorrow night.

I just have a gut feeling about Quick not playing up to snuff tomorrow.