Cory Schneider dissertation

[norrisdivision]

I like Cory Schneider, plain and simple. Both as a goalie and as a fantasy asset. He's got a unique combination of circumstances working in his favour heading into this year as far as fantasy value is concerned:

1. Raw talent (1st round pick in 2004)
2. Good team (greater opportunity for wins)
3. NHL experience / maturity (he's no kid at 25 years old)
4. Unrealized potential (still a backup)
5. Contract (UFA this coming summer)

In a fantasy league like mine where teams tend to carry 3 goalies, but only a few of those GM's choosing to sacrifice offence to acquire and carry 3 solid proven starters, Schneider is a beauty as a 3rd goalie heading into this year due to the likelihood of him becoming that 3rd solid starter by next year without having to sacrifice the offence now to acquire him. In other words, in my books, of goalies he has been the "surest thing" to potentially gain significant value over the course of the 2011-2012 season ever since getting the job done last year as the full-time back up in Vancouver. And as many of us are aware, the climax of his rising stock is expected to come at this year's trade deadline where it is anticipated that he will be dealt to provide the Canucks with whatever piece is needed at that time for their playoff run.

The first few weeks of the young season has already presented a twist to this plot however. Come March, what if that needed playoff piece ends up being a starting goalie? Luongo is playing miserably, and while the old "Relax, it's early!" addage comes to mind, what is particularly noteworthy amidst Lou's slump is that he has quickly become the reigning goat in Vancouver - a movement which really gained steam during the failed cup run last spring. The seeds of Luongo not being a Stanley-Cup-winning calibre goalie that were planted last June (and some would argue much earlier), are quickly taking root in mid-October. By the sounds of things, the "Louuuu" call is actually becoming the "Boooo" that it always sounded like. On AM 590 The Fan in Toronto this morning, the host went as far as suggesting that despite the 11 years left on Luongo's contract, Vancouver needs to figure out a way to cut ties with him before they lose Schnieder since it is becoming evident that Luongo is not the answer for the next 11 years. He acknowledged the unlikelihood of another team picking up his contract, but the point was made nonetheless. Is Schneider Luongo? No. But maybe that's a good thing. Felix Potvin wasn't Grant Fuhr either. But the Leafs got closer to the Stanley Cup finals than at any other time since 1967 in recognizing Potvin's ability to do the job and picking up some tangible cup-run assets in exchange for Fuhr that season (anyone remember Dave Andreychuck??). Regardless of what actually happens (acknowleding that a Luongo trade is extremely unlikely), this type of discussion is likely only to build while Luongo tries to sort himself out, and is equally likely to play with Schneider's fantasy value.

Ultimately, it has caused me to ask this question:

Even if he never actually becomes Vancouver's #1 guy, when would Schneider's value potentially be at it's highest in the next 12 months? When he is traded at the trade deadline to be the starter on a potentially fledgeling team? Or in the next few weeks - when he's still on a Stanley Cup contender playing backup savior to a rapidly falling superstar? Meanwhile, Mike Gillis helplessly watches the clock ticking faster towards the day he loses Schneider to the open market, while the Luongo contract expiry clock seemingly comes to a grinding halt. So I might be over-dramatizing a tad. But my point is, does another few weeks of poor play by Luongo and the accompanying banter associated with Luongo-Schneider situation, not potentially give Schneider some intrinsic fantasy value that may actually make him a stronger moveable asset now than when he gets dealt to the Blue Jackets in March to finally put Steve Mason out of his misery? As far-fetched as a long-term relationship between Schneider and Vancouver may seem, if the current trend continues, I'm sure Mr. Gillis will begin to wonder how long his own relationship with the Canucks will last if he sits idly by and does nothing.

[blayze]

Since watching him last year, I've always felt Schneider is better than Luongo.

Solid piece.

[ross10019]

Nice piece. I highly doubt that Luongo will get moved, so as a fellow Schneider owner, I'll have to settle for the excellent spot-starting value he'll bring in my league for the as long as he stays with the canucks as well as the big trade value he'll have once he becomes a no 1 guy elsewhere, not too shabby either way. My favored destination is clearly Tampa Bay, I could see Schneider eventually winning a Cup coached by Boucher and teaming with Lecavalier, StLouis, Stamkos and a rising Hedman.

[norrisdivision]

My favored destination is clearly Tampa Bay, I could see Schneider eventually winning a Cup coached by Boucher and teaming with Lecavalier, StLouis, Stamkos and a rising Hedman.

Roloson's not getting any younger, TB is a definite possibility. I just really felt like dissing Mason. Thanks for the feedback.

[Mervillian]

Only thing is that Schneider is an RFA this coming summer, not a UFA.

http://www.capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=685

Thus Gillis won't be helplessly watching the clock tick down and really has no reason to trade him (unless a significant "now" piece comes back).

[kevinsrangers]

he is not better than luongo. we ahvent seen him play a ton of games in a row with the presure of being a number one yet. there is a big differance when spot starting. im not a luongo fan but i do like schnider. he is still just a good prospect. i dont see van trading luongo. schnider would look very good in tampa.

[norrisdivision]

Only thing is that Schneider is an RFA this coming summer, not a UFA.

http://www.capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=685

Thus Gillis won't be helplessly watching the clock tick down and really has no reason to trade him (unless a significant "now" piece comes back).

Thanks for that point, not sure why I thought he was a UFA.

[blayze]

he is not better than luongo. we ahvent seen him play a ton of games in a row with the presure of being a number one yet. there is a big differance when spot starting. im not a luongo fan but i do like schnider. he is still just a good prospect. i dont see van trading luongo. schnider would look very good in tampa.

I am sure if they could they would trade him and make Schneider the starter at one third the price. I agree they won't trade him only because nobody is ******ed enough to take on his ridiculous contract.

I guess we agree to disagree on Lu.

[ross10019]

he is not better than luongo. we ahvent seen him play a ton of games in a row with the presure of being a number one yet. there is a big differance when spot starting. im not a luongo fan but i do like schnider. he is still just a good prospect. i dont see van trading luongo. schnider would look very good in tampa.

That's certainly true, Luongo is tons more proven. But I'll tell you what, watching him in those big Hawks games after he came in for Luongo, this guy is one of the more technically sound goalies I've seen play recently, and that includes all the big names, and he doesn't seem like he gets shaken too easily. There's a reason why Goldman has him at the very top of the list when it comes to the "next ones" between the pipes, with only Rask ahead of him.

[norrisdivision]

Only thing is that Schneider is an RFA this coming summer, not a UFA.

http://www.capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=685

Thus Gillis won't be helplessly watching the clock tick down and really has no reason to trade him (unless a significant "now" piece comes back).

In Schneider's case, I'm not sure how relevant the RFA/UFA distinction will be given that over one-third of the cap is dedicated to keeping the Sedins, Kesler and Luongo happy. It's doubtful that Gillis would be able to match the best offer sheet coming at Schneider when the time comes even if he wanted to, so I don't think he even lets it get to the point of offer sheets. It's going to be substantially more than the sub-$1M they are paying him now. They either figure out a way to make him their guy, or they get what they can for him at the deadline in my opinion.

[notoriousjim]

i agree the canucks do not have the luxury of having a 3 million dollar backup goalie and there is no way he gets offered less than that. he gets traded mid season for a 1st and 3rd rounder (thought being he would be offered 3-4.5 mil as a ufa) or a mix of prospects with similar value. TB could offer Nikita Kucherov, and Dustin Tokarski and likely get the trade done now. solid prospect and a goalie propect they do not need as much with schneider. Even Roloson and a prospect would make sense since roloson looks to me more like a backup to me.