[4T2's Towel Rack] Beating A Dead (Work) Horse

[4T2]

It may be a bold statement, but the days of seeing goalies start 65+ games are over. We've heard it again and again but the NHL is a "copycat league" in much the same way that I am a "copycat writer". The copycat story angle has been done by almost every writer covering hockey year-in year-out. But let's put a different spin on it and examine its impact from a fantasy standpoint, particularly goaltending.

Teams tend to emulate the success of the Stanley Cup Finalists. This year both teams had Vezina calibre goalies that didn't carry the traditional workload one would expect. Boston had Tim Thomas start 55 games between the pipes backed up by one of the top young goalies in the league in Tuukka Rask. In Vancouver, the much-maligned Roberto Luongo saw his workload drop to only 60 starts while future stud Cory Schneider picked up the rest.

In the last five years you could usually count on there being 7-8 goalies starting 65+ games for their club. There were always about 4-5 true workhorse goaltenders who would start 70+ games. Luongo was perennially one of those workhorses. However, given Vancouver's 2010-2011 success, one has to think that 60 starts is more comfortable territory for him.

No goalies that started 65 or more games got their team past the first round of the playoffs. Taking the copycat rule into effect, let's look at how that will affect the guys that you can usually count on for the bulk of the starts.

Cam Ward - Ward started a league-high 74 games in 10-11. He couldn't quite play his team into a playoff berth though. Carolina signed the very capable Brian Boucher to the backup spot this year. Boucher will be able to keep the Canes competitive against weaker teams and allow Ward to rest up for the harder games. While this may mean less starts for Ward, it could help him turn a few of those 10-OTLs into Ws. Expect around 55-60 starts with great peripherals as always.

Carey Price- Price started 70 games for Montreal last year with Alex Auld in the back-up role. He is their "golden boy" and they are trying to mould him into the next Patrick Roy (without the dramatic exit). Budaj is not likely to steal many games from him. Montreal brass tends to buck the trend in the NHL in spite of any outside criticism (See: size wins games). They are not likely to start following the herd now. Price will still be among the league leaders in games played and his stats should be very solid. Be careful late in the season though, as fatigue begins to set in.

Miikka Kiprusoff- Kipper had his least games started last year since the lockout, only getting the nod a paltry 71 times. Calgary has a great young goalie behind him in Karlsson but he cannot develop a rhythm in the few spot starts he received. Calgary is another team that tends to march to their own beat though. While it's possible that they rest Kipper a little more, don't expect to see him less than 65 times this season while he puts up his average numbers.

Ilya Bryzgalov- The Flyers big free agent acquisition has a huge contract to live up to this year. However, don't expect that to mean he automatically starts 70+ games. On what could be a very good Philadelphia team, he is more than capable of being a Vezina finalist. However, the Flyers also have a great young goaltender to back him up in Bobrovsky. Does this sound familiar? Could the Flyers be emulating our two Conference Champions? 55-60 starts for Bryz should be in the cards this season and spectacular numbers across the board.

Henrik Lundqvist- King Henrik has been right up there with Kiprusoff for the last few years in his number of appearances. His #1 position will never be in question as Lundqvist is always at the top of his game. Marty Biron will never challenge for the top spot on the Rangers but he can definitely fill in as needed. Should New York follow the trend or lock up a playoff spot early, expect to see Lundqvist a little less. He should still be good for 65 starts and top-notch peripherals as usual.

Ryan Miller- He may not be a perennial 70-game starter but he has shown he can handle that workload if needed. With the Sabres upgrade from Lalime to Enroth though, that need will not be there. Enroth won't challenge for the #1, but he will allow Buffalo to rest Miller for a post-season run. Miller should get around 60 starts and could have a career season if rested.

Marc-Andre Fleury- "Flower"� has been forced to play a lot of games for the Penguins in recent years but he's never gotten into more than 67. With the recent emergence of part-time pugilist Brent Johnson as a capable goaltender; Fleury will probably not reach that 70 game barrier. He will continue to shoulder the load getting anywhere from 60-65 starts. If the Pens are healthy, expect Johnson to play more late in the season as Pittsburgh waits for the rest of the league to catch up.

Martin Brodeur- The true definition of workhorse. With 12 seasons of over 70 games behind him, Marty has unquestionably been the most reliable fantasy goalie of the last 15-years. But at 39-years-old, those days are over. He is still a great goaltending option, but expect the Devils to let Hedberg handle a good 20-25 games and give the aging Brodeur more time for his afternoon nap and Matlock marathons.

There are many other great young goalies that have the potential to be 70+ starters someday; Rinne, Quick, Halak and Crawford come to mind. However, with the amount of young talent and cheap veterans available, teams are realizing that they don't have to tire their elite goaltenders out.

If you have two starting goalie spots on your fantasy roster, it is far more difficult these days to only carry two goalies. Devoting a bench spot to a third netminder has now become a necessity rather than just a strategy. Many GMs are even carrying four goalies due to the uncertainty that is the role of a starting goalie.

It's more important than ever to focus on goaltending early in a draft. Once upon a time, snagging Brodeur in the first round meant you could wait until the end of a draft to pick your second goalie. Many teams are now filling out their goalies before they could even fill one spot at every position. All because these workhorses are quickly being replaced by the hockey equivalent of the steam engine.

[TwoPuckCanuck]

Great read 4T2.

The only prediciton I am not too sure of is the one for Cam Ward. I do agree that with Boucher behind him he can rest more, but I would be more incline to say he'd be looking at 63-67. I know that's a small difference, but I just can't imagine a Hurricanes team not starting Ward for 30% of their games (assuming 57 GS as per your prediciton).

[SeaDawg]

you make some good points, 4T2. The one way I see some teams riding their starting goalie 65+ games is when they don't have a reliable/trustworthy backup and the team needs every win it can get just to make it into the playoffs. Teams like Calgary, Carolina, Montreal, Philadelphia, Rangers, Tampa, and NJ (just some that come to mind) don't really have terrific backup goalies and those teams will all be struggling to make the playoffs.

Alternatively, LA, Boston, Vancouver, Buffalo, and Washington all have exceptional backup goalies who can take some of the load off the starters. Plus, those teams will be among the strongest in the league, so they can afford to play their #2 goalie more often than teams struggling for every win.

Detroit, for example, can afford to play Conklin, even if he is a drop off from Howard, because they will once again be among the top teams in the West.

[kevinsrangers]

good read thanks. rep to ya.

[4T2]

Great read 4T2.

The only prediciton I am not too sure of is the one for Cam Ward. I do agree that with Boucher behind him he can rest more, but I would be more incline to say he'd be looking at 63-67. I know that's a small difference, but I just can't imagine a Hurricanes team not starting Ward for 30% of their games (assuming 57 GS as per your prediciton).

Thanks man, I appreciate it.

I know where you are coming from and I wouldn't be surprised to see him inch up to the 65 mark. A lot of it depends on the play of Boucher and the team in general. Obviously if the Canes are fighting to make the playoffs down the stretch, Ward will get the nod most nights. Boucher is capable of getting hot though and stands a better chance than most backups of stealing a few games in a row. He still holds the modern day NHL shutout record of 5 in a row. While he won't steal the #1 job by any means, he could end up getting Ward benched for consecutive games now and then.

you make some good points, 4T2. The one way I see some teams riding their starting goalie 65+ games is when they don't have a reliable/trustworthy backup and the team needs every win it can get just to make it into the playoffs. Teams like Calgary, Carolina, Montreal, Philadelphia, Rangers, Tampa, and NJ (just some that come to mind) don't really have terrific backup goalies and those teams will all be struggling to make the playoffs.

Alternatively, LA, Boston, Vancouver, Buffalo, and Washington all have exceptional backup goalies who can take some of the load off the starters. Plus, those teams will be among the strongest in the league, so they can afford to play their #2 goalie more often than teams struggling for every win.

Detroit, for example, can afford to play Conklin, even if he is a drop off from Howard, because they will once again be among the top teams in the West.

Thanks dude, glad you liked it.

Calgary and Montreal definitely belong in the group you've mentioned.

Carolina, Philly and NYR all have steady backups in my opinion. They may not steal many games for their teams, but they will definitely keep them in the game.

Tampa Bay and New Jersey both have goaltenders who are far too old to carry a 65+ game workload. Roloson in particular has only started 60+ twice in his very long career.

That's just my take on those teams.

Great point about Detroit. Plus Conklin can really play well in a limited role.

good read thanks. rep to ya.

Thanks man, I appreciate it.

[SeaDawg]

yeap, good points again, 4t2, especially about the ages of Brodeur and Roloson limiting their games-played. I guess my general point is that although I really like what you've written, I think there will still be a lot of teams playing their starters to the max if they are bubble teams, unless of course they have a very good backup, such as a Schneider, Bernier, Enroth, Rask, etc. (who could all be starting goalies in the NHL).

[4T2]

That's a very good point. Any team that is on the bubble, especially late in the season, will be playing their starter's as much as they can handle. I just feel that you will not see near as many 70 game starters as teams will probably get their backups in earlier in the season to avoid fatigue.

2010-2011 saw only 3 goalies play in 70+ games whereas the previous seasons since 06-07 were 4/6/4/6. A former 70+ game starter is probably not going to dip below the 60-65 mark. A few 65+ game starters may dip to 55-60. I think the number of 65 game starters will stay roughly around that 7-8 mark due to the offset there.

I like the points you have raised though and I would have went into more detail along those lines but I felt the article was getting a little long as is.

[SeaDawg]

I just feel that you will not see near as many 70 game starters as teams will probably get their backups in earlier in the season to avoid fatigue.

and on this, which is the main point of your article, I completely agree

a lot of teams realize that it is a long season, especially if you go deep in the playoffs

[TK12555]

4T2's towel rack is quickly becoming one of my favourite articles on the site.

Keep it up man.

[4T2]

4T2's towel rack is quickly becoming one of my favourite articles on the site.

Keep it up man.

Thanks dude, I just wish I had more time to make it a weekly or at least bi-weekly feature.

[TK12555]

Thanks dude, I just wish I had more time to make it a weekly or at least bi-weekly feature.

that would be awesome!

[mister_mcgoo]

nice writeup dude, but I dont get this part?

It may be a bold statement, but the days of seeing goalies start 65+ games are over. We've heard it again and again but the NHL is a "copycat league" in much the same way that I am a "copycat writer". This story has been done by almost every writer covering hockey year-in year-out. But let's examine its impact from a fantasy standpoint, particularly goaltending.

This story has been done by almost every writer covering hockey year in and year out??? Who exactly are these writers and do they say what they are basing this claim off of? Frankly I'm not sure its a trend at all and I don't think it holds much water to be honest with you...goalie starts were down a little bit this season from the previous year but higher than they were in 2009, or 2005 or 2003. In fact if you look at the last 10 years there is no distinct trend at all, they seem to fluctuate up and down consistently, look I even plotted it for you:



I would guess that it has more to do with injuries and coaching style (some coaches love to alternate goalies, some like to go with the #1 guy 90% of the time) than it does anything.

Now as to your point of the league being copycat and mimicking techniques that have worked for other successful teams, I totally agree with that and time will tell if this is another scenario where we see that happen. Good read on the goalies too dude, thanks

[4T2]

Any chance you can shrink that chart down mcgoo so that I can see your post. I was able to get the gist of it but I would like to read the whole thing so I'm not missing anything

[4T2]

Nevermind mcgoo, I copied and pasted into Notepad, not sure why I didn't think of it before.

I guess I should have worded the opening a little different. I was more or less saying that the "copycat" angle has been covered quite a bit. I have read a couple of articles on the effect that may have on goaltending, but not from a fantasy standpoint.

I agree that it can not be considered a trend yet but the potential is there and I definitely think it goes that way this season (which would actually be year 2 since the numbers were down last year). Part of the secret to success is recognizing trends when they first start, as true in fantasy hockey as it is in the stock market.

I'm glad you liked the article though man, thanks. Always nice to get some feedback.

[mister_mcgoo]

Nevermind mcgoo, I copied and pasted into Notepad, not sure why I didn't think of it before.

I guess I should have worded the opening a little different. I was more or less saying that the "copycat" angle has been covered quite a bit. I have read a couple of articles on the effect that may have on goaltending, but not from a fantasy standpoint.

I agree that it can not be considered a trend yet but the potential is there and I definitely think it goes that way this season (which would actually be year 2 since the numbers were down last year). Part of the secret to success is recognizing trends when they first start, as true in fantasy hockey as it is in the stock market.

I'm glad you liked the article though man, thanks. Always nice to get some feedback.

ah I see now...so you meant that lots of sports writers have focused on the copycat angle, but not specifically as related to goalie starts. I just read it wrong I guess.

One thing I'd caution with that theory though is that we had some big name goalies injured this year...Hiller, Rinne, Halak...if they all remain healthy this season you could see that trend evaporate pretty quickly

In general though I think you're right that having a rested goalie for the grueling playoff run is a big bonus, Tim Thomas certainly showed us how that was done this past season. I think it also depends on the goalie though, some guys thrive by playing more and it doesn't faze them in the slightest in the playoffs (Brodeur is the quintessential example)