Schenn vs Seguin

[Veritas0Aequitas]

why the highest upside BY FAR???...they are 5 months apart in age......schenn tore up the WHL a notoriously harder league than the OHL to put up #'s.....Schenn would have ripped the OHL and new *******.......

redo your research......these guys are both equally offensively gifted and oh yeah...schenn tore apart the WJ's....did seguin even play??????

Seguin was too busy playing in the NHL while Schenn was tearing up a "junior tournament"

[Veritas0Aequitas]

not even close???...it was very close....

year 1 for seguin he went 61GP 21G 46A 67pts **he started at 16, finished as a 17 year old

year 2 for seguin he went 63GP 48G 58A 106 pts ** started as a 17, finished as an 18 year old


year 1 for schenn he went 66GP 28G 43A 71pts....started AND finished as 16 year old

year 2 for schenn he went 70GP 32G 56A 88 its..started and finished as 17 year old


basically seguin outpointed schenn by 14 pts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

chalk up the OHL v.s WHL difference and its a wash......chalk up the fact that sequin ALWAYS had the advantage as a January baby v.s Schenn in late Aug and the tide shifts to Schenns favour......

these 2 are tight.......

It's 5 months difference. Not that big of a deal.

In "year 2" Seguin played 7 less games and scored 18 more points than Schenn.

You shot yourself in the foot with your own argument, although I'm sure you'll come back with a personal insult or say how Turris is a bust cause you are the known #1 troll here on the Dobber forums.

[fungchen3]

In terms of offence, it's not even close. Compare their draft years if you wanna talk about junior stats. Schenn's 3rd and 4th years and his WJC mean nothing in this debate as Seguin only had 2 years and was playing in the NHL while Schenn was at the World Juniors.

I try to avoid the pre-NHL stuff when comparing Seguin and Schenn types. Neither of these kids are Crosby/Ovechkin talents and the fact remains Schenn could certainly outscore Seguin.

All one needs to do is look at Jeff Skinner - the kid goes behind both Hall and Seguin in the draft and last year scores 63 points in 82GP to their COMBINED 64 points in 139GP.

Point being - the NHL is a whole new ball game. Certain players are better junior players and some shine more in the NHL. Not saying Seguin will be a bust and Schenn will be a superstar, but Seguin's 22 points in 74GP was far from impressive.

Recent rookie seasons:

1. Pat Kane = 72
2. Backstrom = 69
3. Skinner = 63
4. Duchene = 55
5. Toews = 54 (in only 64GP)
6. Stamkos = 46
7. Hall = 44
8. Eberle = 43
9. Paajarvi = 34
10. Seguin = 22

Forget about the monsters:

1. Ovechkin = 106
2. Crosby = 102
3. Malkin = 85

If we are talking about Seguin being some sort of 90 point NHL player, he better improve by a ton. Kane and Toews haven't hit 90 and both impressed me a lot more than Seguin as youngsters.

IMO, Seguin and Schenn both end up 72-82 point players in the NHL. I don't see either one outscoring the other in a landslide.

[fungchen3]

A couple more, just to put it into perspective:

Ev.Kane = 26 points in 66GP
Burmistrov = 20 points in 74GP (2 less points than Seguin)

Again, not saying Seguin can't/won't be an awesome player, but I think it's a bit outlandish when people go overboard and say "he'll outscore Schenn and it's not even close" when the kid only put up 22 points as a rookie.

[Big Ev]

Skinner scoring more in his rookie year does not make him a better player, or the guy who will outscore Hall or Seguin in his career. Hall and Seguin are both better offensively all-around.

All you really need to do is watch the two players. Seguin's skill set is simply better than Schenn's - by a landslide. There's a reason he was considered for 1st overall and Brayden Schenn was a solid prospect but not elite.

[SeaDawg]

excellent analysis as usual, fungchen

a couple of points that I'm sure you aren't intentionally omitting are opportunity and skill

Seguin did not have the same opportunity as most of the other rookies you mention. Kane and Toews, for example, were given #1 ice time and PP time in their rookie seasons because Chicago had no one else to rely on. Boston has other, veteran players they are using, because they can.

As for skill, Seguin has more than most of the players you listed.

But otherwise I do agree tha nothing is for certain and we really can't base all of our projections on CHL (or WJHC) numbers.

[Big Ev]

A couple more, just to put it into perspective:

Ev.Kane = 26 points in 66GP
Burmistrov = 20 points in 74GP (2 less points than Seguin)

Again, not saying Seguin can't/won't be an awesome player, but I think it's a bit outlandish when people go overboard and say "he'll outscore Schenn and it's not even close" when the kid only put up 22 points as a rookie.

You do realize that he was healthy scratched a lot, and when he did play he got like 10 minutes a game, right? You're not gonna get points like that.

His stats are irrelevant. The fact that he was in the NHL and improved every game, and was a much better player at the end of the year than the start,speaks volumes.

I don't care what he put up this year, he will always outscore Brayden Schenn and it won't be that close.

Going off stats and only stats is wrong - you have to watch them play and evaluate their talent.

[TK12555]

I try to avoid the pre-NHL stuff when comparing Seguin and Schenn types. Neither of these kids are Crosby/Ovechkin talents and the fact remains Schenn could certainly outscore Seguin.

All one needs to do is look at Jeff Skinner - the kid goes behind both Hall and Seguin in the draft and last year scores 63 points in 82GP to their COMBINED 64 points in 139GP.

Point being - the NHL is a whole new ball game. Certain players are better junior players and some shine more in the NHL. Not saying Seguin will be a bust and Schenn will be a superstar, but Seguin's 22 points in 74GP was far from impressive.

Recent rookie seasons:

1. Pat Kane = 72
2. Backstrom = 69
3. Skinner = 63
4. Duchene = 55
5. Toews = 54 (in only 64GP)
6. Stamkos = 46
7. Hall = 44
8. Eberle = 43
9. Paajarvi = 34
10. Seguin = 22

Forget about the monsters:

1. Ovechkin = 106
2. Crosby = 102
3. Malkin = 85

If we are talking about Seguin being some sort of 90 point NHL player, he better improve by a ton. Kane and Toews haven't hit 90 and both impressed me a lot more than Seguin as youngsters.

IMO, Seguin and Schenn both end up 72-82 point players in the NHL. I don't see either one outscoring the other in a landslide.

amazing analysis here fungchen, couldn't have said it better myself.

I don't know where this whole "Seguin will be 1000000000 times better be" notation is coming from really. While you say that Schenn cannot be based off of a monster WJHC, we can't base Seguin off of anything either. He literally had 1 good game all year- game 2 of the Conference finals. He only managed to record 11 goals, he finished a minus player (one of few to do so), and had severe attitude problems because he felt that he deserved more than he was getting. Does any of that mean Seguin is a bust? Hell no. It just means he's still a work in progress.

Overall, I see these guys both being in that 70-75 point area for their careers, with both of them flirting with 80 for a couple seasons. For me, the biggest difference between them is their "highlight of the night" factor. I feel that Seguin will be more flashy, scoring the beautiful goals and many of his plays will be very nice. Meanwhile, Schenn will score 30+ goals by driving to the net, screening the goalie, and shooting from the slot.

[fungchen3]

Skinner scoring more in his rookie year does not make him a better player, or the guy who will outscore Hall or Seguin in his career. Hall and Seguin are both better offensively all-around.

All you really need to do is watch the two players. Seguin's skill set is simply better than Schenn's - by a landslide. There's a reason he was considered for 1st overall and Brayden Schenn was a solid prospect but not elite.

I totally get what you're saying, but "skill set" alone doesn't = points in the NHL. There are many other intangibles that factor in, such as:

1. Opportunity
2. Mental toughness
3. Confidence
4. Compete level
5. Linemates
6. Determination
7. Grit
8. Durability
9. Luck

Alexander Daigle, Alexei Yashin, Valeri Bure, Stepane Richer, etc. all had better "skill sets" than Luc Robitaille and Dave Andreychuk.

Also, are we looking at skill sets in the NHL or pre-NHL? Because Seguin's skill set leveraged him 2 more points than Alex Burmistrov in the same amount of GP as rookies.

I have to say, outside of a few games in the playoffs, Seguin did nothing that "wowed" me this year. In fact, to be honest, Paajarvi impressed me a lot more in terms of skills and flash.

[TML]

Before B. Schenn was moved, I'm not sure who I would have picked. Both have great skill sets and have tons of intangibles. They're both future #1 centres, and both have huge potential. However, with B. Schenn now in Philly, I"d give the edge to Seguin. I just don't think B. Schenn will burst out as an elite player as fast, and I think his future numbers will be a little lower now due to all the great forwards (and centres) in Philadelphia.

[sparrowtrini]

here we go...fantasy experts commenting on REAL hockey......get a grip folks....to say schenn will never surpass giroux is just DUMB......they may very well play together on the same line for the next 5 years.....schenn isn't LOCKED into the C spot, neither is Roo.....

as for schenn v.s seguin?.....i'd have to say pretty close in points with a HUGE physical edge going to schenn.....seguins gonna be good, very good...but he's still a young boy filling out.....schenn is a beast already and still growing......schenn bros will be vicious to play against for years to come when they peak physically...easy 225 pounders on big frames.....

this is as close as it comes......we'll have a better idea by the end of THIS season....

Though I agree with you for the most part Schenn could also turn out to be another Keith Primeau. Hope Im wrong in fantasy terms.

[fungchen3]

excellent analysis as usual, fungchen

a couple of points that I'm sure you aren't intentionally omitting are opportunity and skill

Seguin did not have the same opportunity as most of the other rookies you mention. Kane and Toews, for example, were given #1 ice time and PP time in their rookie seasons because Chicago had no one else to rely on. Boston has other, veteran players they are using, because they can.

As for skill, Seguin has more than most of the players you listed.

But otherwise I do agree tha nothing is for certain and we really can't base all of our projections on CHL (or WJHC) numbers.

I get it. And I'm really not trying to play devil's advocate here to be a stick in the mud, seriously lol. I know Seguin has the pedigree here to an extent, but I just don't see the megastar in him that some do I guess.

The bottom line is - until we see what Schenn can do on NHL ice, there's no measuring stick here. I don't blame anyone for taking Seguin over Schenn (hell, I would too - and I said he will edge him in scoring) but I just don't see this:

Seguin = 90 pointer
Schenn = 70 pointer

Because that's what "not even close" looks like. If both fall between 77-85 points, that's pretty damn close if you ask me. This is not Crosby vs. Schenn here - that's a landslide.

[sparrowtrini]

I get it. And I'm really not trying to play devil's advocate here to be a stick in the mud, seriously lol. I know Seguin has the pedigree here to an extent, but I just don't see the megastar in him that some do I guess.

The bottom line is - until we see what Schenn can do on NHL ice, there's no measuring stick here. I don't blame anyone for taking Seguin over Schenn (hell, I would too - and I said he will edge him in scoring) but I just don't see this:

Seguin = 90 pointer
Schenn = 70 pointer

Because that's what "not even close" looks like. If both fall between 77-85 points, that's pretty damn close if you ask me. This is not Crosby vs. Schenn here - that's a landslide.

Well from a guy whose seen Seguin play several times. Id say he's the real deal. 90pt upside(Yeah no Crosby) Last years stats mean nothing. He was brought along slowly.

[Filadelphia]

I think people are overlooking the fact that Schenn could be traded. Think about it. Giroux is locked up until 14-15 and will be a RFA while Briere is signed until 15-16 and he will be short of useless then. The Flyers aren't going to waste Schenn's potential for 4 years. Giroux or Briere have both played RW for significant chunks of time the last few seasons so he could end up a top 2 center or he could be traded. The Flyers will likely make a playoff run again this year so at the deadline Schenn could get moved for a solid top 6 winger. If Pronger returns healthy the Flyers finally have the pieces [or piece *ahem* goalie] in place to be considered serious contenders. Would they deal Schenn for someone like Vanek if it could win them a cup?

For the record I'd rather have Seguin than Schenn but I'm just saying don't count on Schenn being stuck in Philly as a 3rd liner for 4 years so don't base your preference on that assumption.

[fungchen3]

Well from a guy whose seen Seguin play several times. Id say he's the real deal. 90pt upside(Yeah no Crosby) Last years stats mean nothing. He was brought along slowly.

Spar,

You probably have a better take on Seguin than I do. And, yes, he was brought along very slowly - no doubt about it. Does Seguin have 90 point "upside"? I'd say yes he does. But how many kids actually hit their upside?

If Seguin falls even a little short of his upside and rounds out to be a realistic 80-85 guy (which puts him in Pat Kane's class) and Schenn falls short of his 80-85 point upside and ends up a 70-75 guy (Mike Richards-like) - this is still fairly close any given year.

I just don't see landslide. Of course I could be wrong - wouldn't be the first time.