Dobber Guide 2011-12

[TheRook]

Dobber,

I have a question about the numbers in the guide. Looking for some clarity differentiating between 3YP, and Current year projection.

Example:
Alex Tanguay
LTP = 77 pts
3YP = 62 pts
CYP = 70 pts

I understand the difference between LTP and 3YP but when you add the current year into the mix i got confused when looking at Tanguay's numbers.

I was under the assumption that 3YP was what to expect from the player during their 3 best years left. Is this an average of the three years? How can the current year be projecting higher than the 3YP?

Thanks

[sakic19]

3YP is what he thinks the player will do the next 3 years on an average.

CYP is what he thinks the player will achieve just this season.

LTP is what he thinks the player will max out at.

So if Tanguay is the example:

He thinks Tanguay will get 70 points this year.

He thinks over the next 3 years the average of all 3 of his point totals will be 62.

While he thinks at some point down the road he may hit 77(could be this year, next or never).

I hope I explained this properly.

[Shoeless]

In the Canucks team notes - Hansen becomes Hansel at one point.

[Bobeez]

Minor error: UFA Jeff Tambellini won't play in the KHL but in the NLA (switzerland) next year

[Carcillo]

A few minor things I noticed:

In the Tedenby lowdown: and Elias/Rolston take turns at center/left wing. Rolston has left the team.

In Islanders' hits section: Hunter also takes the body... Hunter has been traded.

[Carcillo]

Johan Harju is in Tampa's lineup in the guide. However he went back to Sweden and will play there next year.

[Pengwin7]

More on Dallas (Benn/Ott):
In the Dallas section you have Benn shown as a center and Ott shown as a winger.
In the last 10 games of 2010-2011, Ott took more faceoffs than any other Dallas center (more than B.Richards, more than Ribeiro) and Benn took very few.

In 90% of fantasy leagues:
Benn will open the season as LW (maybe... C/LW).
Ott will open the season as C.

It is completely possible that they may switch positions under the new head coach.
However, it is just speculation. If your fantasy hockey readers draft Ott as LW and it never happens - you have led them astray.

IMO, in the line combinations you should be showing Benn as LW, Ott as C.
Discuss their potential at other positions in the comments section.

[Dobber]

Note about Richards/Eriksson in the Dallas section:
Eriksson was on the ice for 59 of Brad Richards’ 77 points (76.6%). Richards was on the ice for 53 of Eriksson’s 71 points (74.6%). In other words, even though the difference was slight, Richards needed Eriksson more than Eriksson needed Richards.

Two items:
1. Eriksson had 73pts in 2010-2011.
2. In fairness (to include injury) you need to remove any of Eriksson's production in which Brad Richards did not play. That is an 8pt* in 10game stretch from Feb.14th - March 8th.
B.Richards on for 53 of Eriksson's 65pts* would be 81.5%.

As a comparison:
Daniel Sedin missed a big chunk of time in 2009-2010.
Henrik was probably on for 90% of Daniel's points.
But due to injury, Daniel may have only been on for 60% of Henrik's points.
This circumstance would skew an interpretation of "who needs who".

*Take injury games into account - both ways.

I can't remove his production while Richards was away because that is the whole point! While Richards was out, Eriksson still produced! But while Eriksson was out, Richards did not (as much). That's the entire point of that blurb! Noted about the 73 points though, but that actually makes my point even stronger (lower percentage means less reliability on Richards).

[Dobber]

Johan Harju is in Tampa's lineup in the guide. However he went back to Sweden and will play there next year.

I thought I read that a long time ago, but when I got to this team and tried to dig up a source...I couldn't find one. Do you have one?

[Dobber]

3YP is what he thinks the player will do the next 3 years on an average.

CYP is what he thinks the player will achieve just this season.

LTP is what he thinks the player will max out at.

So if Tanguay is the example:

He thinks Tanguay will get 70 points this year.

He thinks over the next 3 years the average of all 3 of his point totals will be 62.

While he thinks at some point down the road he may hit 77(could be this year, next or never).

I hope I explained this properly.

No, not the NEXT three years. The BEST three years of his NHL career. Difference

[Dobber]

Dobber,

I have a question about the numbers in the guide. Looking for some clarity differentiating between 3YP, and Current year projection.

Example:
Alex Tanguay
LTP = 77 pts
3YP = 62 pts
CYP = 70 pts

I understand the difference between LTP and 3YP but when you add the current year into the mix i got confused when looking at Tanguay's numbers.

I was under the assumption that 3YP was what to expect from the player during their 3 best years left. Is this an average of the three years? How can the current year be projecting higher than the 3YP?

Thanks

I don't have a CYP column in this guide. Are you looking at my guide? No way I give Tangradi 70 points this year.

[Pengwin7]

Brad Richards played 72 games, he missed 10. (Eriksson scored 8pts in these 10games)
Loui Eriksson played 79 games, he missed 3. (Richards scored 4pts in these 3games)

Richards & Eriksson played in the same game together 69 times.
In those 69 games, if Richards was on for 53 of Eriksson's 65pts. (53/65 = 81.5%)
In those 69 games, if Eriksson was on for 59 of Richards' 73pts. (59/73 = 80.8%)

Without Eriksson, Richards had 4pts in 3games = 1.33ppg without Eriksson. (1/21, 3/17, 3/19)
Without Richards, Eriksson had 8pts in 10games = 0.80ppg without Richards.


It really doesn't matter. Two players that play together should be on for a similar amount of each other's points. Eriksson had actually plays some SH time and got 3pts while Brad Richards had none. We could factor this in as well.

My summary:
It wasn't a point worth making... and if anything skews your reader to suggest that Loui Eriksson's point totals will be fine without Brad Richards. I disagree.
But - it's your guide man... and a very fine one at that!

[Carcillo]

I thought I read that a long time ago, but when I got to this team and tried to dig up a source...I couldn't find one. Do you have one?

Both in Swedish:

http://www.luleahockey.se/Nyheter/Jo...-Lulea-Hockey/

http://www.hockeysverige.se/article/...ju-valde-lulea

[GoHabsGo]

I don't have a CYP column in this guide. Are you looking at my guide? No way I give Tangradi 70 points this year.

I believe it was Tanguay with 70 pts this coming season, and Long Term was 77 pts and 3YP was 62.

[mabus]

Page 32 - Dobber's Lowdown
"......... if one of Barker or Visnovsky get hurt."
I think you meant Fowler.

Now back top the guide.......

Here is one update for a future version of the guide. Also assume that we just said the wrong Cam in Anaheim.

Great work Dobber. Just starting read it over lunch.

Mabus