St Louis Blues

[metaldude26]

I think I'm going to disagree with you here, MD.

EJ is what he was supposed to be: a big physical franchise-type defenseman who would control the game physically, contribute offensively, and take several years to put it all together. That was always the view on him... I think St Louis was just waaay impatient. Wasn't he always viewed as likely to have a Pronger-like development curve (ie mediocre stats for like 4 years then the lightbulb goes on)?

Interesting point about Tarasenko at C, actually -- he certainly plays RW on Sibir and has lined up that way for a while. Playing him at C speaks to his coachs' confidence in his 2-way play, which has also earned him an A in the KHL this year.

And about the franchise-type players... I have yet to see any evidence that both Schwartz and Tarasenko are not on franchise player -type development paths. They both have the upside, get major responsibility with their respective national teams, and are leaders both in terms of offense and actual leadership on their "season" teams. In my (oft repeated) view, these guys are two of the best prospects in the entire NHL.

I actually agree with you on all counts.

Fully agree with you on EJ. They were impatient. They got a damn good haul for their troubles but isn't being impatient with prospects part of being terrible at developing them?

Tarasenko and Schwartz are what appear to be fantastic prospects. I own them both in multiple leagues and am super excited about them. But when, WHEN, will they make the NHL leap. I think Schwartz is two-three years out but I've yet to see how much he developed this summer. Tarasenko could come over whenever so who knows there. And really, who knows what will happen once the Blues get their hands on them. Will they look so promising after some shoddy development? Not saying they'll get it or that they won't perservere but it seems telling that their best future players aren't yet close to playing in the NHL. Isn't that the sign of a team in perpetual rebuild?

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Clearly you're being a bit dramatic, man. What does it matter if you had more opportunity to make good draft picks... isn't the point where they are today? It sure is nice to pull out later-round gems, but if you've got enough 1st round picks that it doesn't matter, then... well... what does it matter?

Sobotka-Backes-T.J. Oshie
D'Agostini-Berglund-Stewart
Steen-Arnott-Langenbrunner

Three bolded guys drafted by St Louis. D'Agostini was acquired for Palushaj; Stewart in the EJ trade (I still think that one favours Colorado).

They've got a great blend of cup-winning vets to teach the young kids how to win and be pros. They've got three players in their top-6 that they drafted themselves, and have developed.

They're not there yet -- maybe people expected them to be a good team too soon (as usual, fan expectations get ahead of the real timeline). Tarasenko should be ready to step into the NHL pretty quickly; maybe he'll need some time in the AHL but not that much. Schwartz will need a little more time than Tarasenko to bulk up (not much more bulking Tarasenko can do!), so I'd expect him to finish this year in the NCAA, play a year in the AHL, then play top-6 for the Blues. It's really important to note that neither of these guys are playing in juniors. Tarasenko has been playing against full-grown men for a few years and he's built like a brick so there's shouldn't be any body-size issues when he comes over. Schwartz is playing in a league where the average age is about two years older than in the CHL - again, playing against bigger bodies will help him in the long-run.

At that time, Andy Mac, Arnott, and Langenbrunner will be fading from the picture. Seems like well-managed succession planning to me.

[27Blue]

regardless of what the future holds for this team, they have played below expectations (both fan and team) for the better part of a year. payne will be held accountable if this ship isn't righted soon.

[metaldude26]

Dramatic?!? Absolutely. I made that point in my first post. Still doesn't change the fact there's a lot of truth to this.

My point about them having so many first round picks is not about them being lucky to have first rounders it's a point about how poorly they've developed talent. The ability to convert picks into quality NHLers is reflective of a team's ability to develop talent. St. Louis has always been perceived to be loaded because of how many first round picks they've had in recent years. But their inability to turn that first round talent into what it's been hyped to be is what makes them overrated. No it doesn't matter that all their best prospects have been first rounders but it does matter that people believe they are loaded when in reality a lot of these guys haven't turned out as expected. The point about them not converting late round picks is to show that perception is not meeting reality. Teams that are truly loaded convert their top picks and come up with late round gems that work out. St. Louis hasn't done nearly as well with the development as the perception has been regarding their drafting.

The three guys you have listed that they drafted:

-Berglund: He's 23 now. Still waiting for that breakout. I'm convinced he is being misused. He's only getting second unit power play time and is getting less than 40% offensive zone starts. For a guy who is supposed to be breaking out as an offensive forward he certainly isn't being put in a position to succeed.

-Oshie: Are we sure he is a top six guy? I've yet to be convinced. He's a top sixer right now but I think on a lot of teams he wouldn't be.

-Backes: Completely miscast as a centerman. Definitely belongs in the top six. His grit and intangibles are invaluable but he's not a number one centerman. He is definitely developed and should be considered a St. Louis success story (Not Even a First Round Pick!) but those are few and far between.

D'Agostini: Stolen in that Palushaj trade but he's a tweener and St. Louis doesn't get credit for developing him, only credit for adding yet another guy with top six potential but is underwhelming overall to their lineup.

Stewart: Again not developed by St. Louis and look at how he is floundering this season. Looked awesome in a limited glimpse last year but like Berglund they aren't using him right.

As for these veteran place holders and their succession plan. That only works if the vets are actually helping the team compete. One playoff trip (that ended in a sweep) in six years is not how you teach these guys how to win. Granted Arnott and Langenbrunner were only acquired this season but they aren't exactly helping as of yet but they do need more time to prove it and nothing they are doing makes the players St. Louis has trotted through the system less overrated to this point.

Finally, I reitterate my statement about Schwartz and Tarasenko. The fact that they are considered the future of this franchise is a bit troubling. Waiting yet another couple of years before this team is maybe a monster reeks of perpetual rebuild.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Who expected them to be a monster immediately? Because they made that one unlikely playoff appearance?

St Louis started rebuilding in 2006 when Bill Laurie sold the team and John Davidson came in as the top man. The team wasn't exactly in great shape then, being on the wrong side of the aging curve with vets like Weight, Guerin, Tkachuk, Rucinsky, Mayers, etc.

Since then they've drafted in the first round:

2006: Johnson, Berglund
2007: Eller, Cole, Perron
2008: Pietrangelo
2009: Rundblad (traded for 2010 pick)
2010: Schwartz, Tarasenko

How many of those guys are going to fall short? Eller, regardless of how he develops, turned into Halak, which was a key positional need. Perron and Cole I guess the jury is still out, but how quickly did anyone expect them to turn things around? I mean, you gotta be expecting at least four years from draft to meaningful NHL impact! If players make noise before then well that's fantastic... but you can't expect it.

Their core now has a bunch of good years ahead of them, which has allowed the Blues to be somewhat competitive (ie keep some butts in the seats) while they've filled their pipeline with good-to-great players.

Berglund is 23! Just 23! What kind of an impact did you expect? He's a big body, and it almost always takes big bodies a while to figure out how to use their frame effectively in the NHL. I agree that Oshie probably is a tweener between the third and second line. Not bad experience for him to be getting though. Maybe the Blues thought he (and the rest of the youth on the team) was more ready for big responsibility than they actually were, so what did they do after coming to that realization? They brought in successful vets to put in the right culture. Again, not sure what else you expected from these guys?

Maybe we're measuring against different expectations here? My view is that the Blues are ahead of schedule!

[metaldude26]

Yeah I think you are the only one viewing this rationally though. Every year since the year that they busted out there's been a steady diet of Blues are stacked talk. When's that gonna pay off exactly. It was supposed to be last year, now this year, now ummm when? I just don't think they are as loaded as everyone makes them out to be. They've got a lot of potential up front but very little in proven commodities.

This is the age of instant results. Prospects are being brought up sooner than ever and are playing important roles right away. St. Louis has given us none of that instant gratification. Oshie is busted as far as I'm concerned but if we aren't giving the current management group credit for that then they don't get credit for Backes either. I think they get credit for both, all things being considered because they've still been involved in the development process.

The jury may still be out on Cole and Perron but they aren't up to the hype.

Eller may have technically become Halak in the sense that Montreal was gave away Halak cheaper than a blow job on the street because they knew they couldn't keep him. If it wasn't Eller it would have been some other marginal prospect. Also let's not forget that maybe, just maybe Halak isn't actually that good. There are plenty of goalies out there capable of throwing together good stretches. I honestly think there are over a hundred goalies out there with the talent to be an NHL starter in the right situation and with some luck. Luck is clearly no longer with Halak. So Eller a marginal but overhyped prospect turns into Halak, a marginal but overhyped goaltender. Same old story no?

Pietrangelo as mentioned before looks great and they way they developed him slowly looks even greater but now he's a second powerplay guy? Hold up. Are they wasting another talent?

Rundblad becomes Tarasenko. So you can't give them credit for both. And as I've said repeatedly the fact that Tarasenko and Schwartz look like the best forwards for the future in St. Louis is a scary. They are tremendous prospects but constantly waiting for that next batch of prospects is what a perpetual rebuild looks like.

Something I have yet to touch on is the fact that ownership groups are rarely patient. What really matters is what their expectations are. How many owners stick with what now amounts to five years of losing? How long before they make a switch? Maybe Davidson and Co. never get to see their long term rebuild come to fruition. If the Blues aren't ready to become legit until Tarasenko and Schwartz come along then that's another year at the very least before they even arrive and another couple before they are productive. Suddenly we are approaching a decade of rebuilding. That's too long to wait. And it all assumes that someone doesn't get impatient and move pieces or fires the current management team.

This is year six and if things continue as they have they'll have one playoff appearance in six years. Since they made that playoff run a few years back all the talk has been how they are on the cusp. You can only stay on the cusp for so long before you get overtaken.

[slufoot]

I wouldn't say they're ahead or behind schedule, but they are on the verge of big things. I would actually contest HPG that the youth on that team IS ready for big responsibility - but they need to know what those responsibilities are.

To echo my thoughts earlier - the players there need defined roles to grow into to be succesful.

If Backes is to be played at C, he should be used as Hanzal and Kesler are - as a shut-down guy - instead he's on the PP one night, and off the next, playing the wing with Sobotka and Stewart one game, and centering Langenbrunner and Oshie the next.

Stewart needs to be given time to develop chemistry with a C. He struggled in Colorado when he bounced around the lineup - only really took off when he and Stastny started playing consistent minute together.

Berglund is at least being used in an exclusive offensive role, but he's been utilized on the PP only 50% of the total time the Blues have been up a man.

D'Agostini is consistently shortchanged, even though he flat out produces and leads the team in +/-. So why is it the only forwards he plays more than are Scot Nichol, Grachev, and Chris Porter?

And if Arnott and Langenbrunner were brought in for character and their locker room presence, why are they stealing PP time from younger, more offensive players?

Steen is the only player being effectively utilized on the roster IMO.

Check out the Blues' line combos on frozenpool, not a single combo has been together more than 10% of the time all year. Most combinations are 5% and less. you can't develop any sort of rythym with that type of uncertainty shift to shift.

[Riverboat Danglers]

The Blues played a pretty solid game to go toe to toe with the nucks.

-Elliot kept them in there all night. He looked really good and calm and made a couple gamechanging saves. So far this year it looks like he may of stole the starting gig for now.

-Backes is just dominant out there. He is so hard to knock off the puck and has an amazing shot. He is continuing to be one of the more consistent forwards for the Blues. Something that they have needed all year.

-Oshie played a decent game and looks to be really gelling with Backes. Its funny how some people freak out and ask why guys like him and Backes have put up no points all year and then they have a night like tonight.

-Shatty had a really strong game. IMO he had his best night for the games ive watched this year. He has amazing poise with the puck for a kid and he has a cannon of a shot. He should start putting up some good numbers right away if he keeps playing like that.

-Steen has been by far the best player for the Blues night in and out. I wish he would get a chance with Backes and Oshie. I think that could be a very dominating line.

[Riverboat Danglers]

So your guys wishes came true and Payne got the ax in favor of Hitchcock. We will see if Hitch can find some consistency with the Blues and get them going. Payne had an issue with giving guys to much ice time that didnt necessarily deserve it.


http://blues.nhl.com/club/news.htm?i...id=DL|STL|home

[27Blue]

hope he brings back the moustache... at least for movember.

[wsig]

I wouldn't say they're ahead or behind schedule, but they are on the verge of big things. I would actually contest HPG that the youth on that team IS ready for big responsibility - but they need to know what those responsibilities are.

To echo my thoughts earlier - the players there need defined roles to grow into to be succesful.

If Backes is to be played at C, he should be used as Hanzal and Kesler are - as a shut-down guy - instead he's on the PP one night, and off the next, playing the wing with Sobotka and Stewart one game, and centering Langenbrunner and Oshie the next.

Stewart needs to be given time to develop chemistry with a C. He struggled in Colorado when he bounced around the lineup - only really took off when he and Stastny started playing consistent minute together.

Berglund is at least being used in an exclusive offensive role, but he's been utilized on the PP only 50% of the total time the Blues have been up a man.

D'Agostini is consistently shortchanged, even though he flat out produces and leads the team in +/-. So why is it the only forwards he plays more than are Scot Nichol, Grachev, and Chris Porter?

And if Arnott and Langenbrunner were brought in for character and their locker room presence, why are they stealing PP time from younger, more offensive players?

Steen is the only player being effectively utilized on the roster IMO.

Check out the Blues' line combos on frozenpool, not a single combo has been together more than 10% of the time all year. Most combinations are 5% and less. you can't develop any sort of rythym with that type of uncertainty shift to shift.

This is the biggest problem I've had with the Blues. Players aren't developing very fast because they're playing next to someone different every 4 nights. I like the chemistry Oshie seems to have with Berglund (Berg seems to play at his best only when with Oshie) and Backes and Oshie seem to play solid together. so I'd put Backes/Berglund/Oshie first line and D'Agostini/Steen/Stewart second, and roll with that all year long and see what happens. But regardless, I'd be much happier with them sticking to certain top lines for too long looking for chemistry and comfort with each other than re-shuffling the deck every couple of games like Payne did for WAY too long.

[27Blue]

For tonight's game against Detroit: Hitch has switched D'Agostini and Stewart on Beglund's flanks. Stewart playing the left side, D'Agostini on the right.

[Riverboat Danglers]

I love how everybody was so worried about the Blues when Hitch took over but if anything I think this is helping a lot of struggling players. I think Backes is gonna see the greatest benefit. We all know how much Hitch loved Morrow in Dallas and I feel that Backes is a chop off the block. Steen is another guy that has been the most consistent player all year for the Blues and is continuing to excel under Hitch. I thought since the start of the year that he should be seeing top 6 minutes and hes starting to see his ice time increase with Hitch.

[ForsbergnSakic]

I've watched more than half of the last two blues games, and I'm really impressed by what Hitchcock has done --- they're playing playoff-style defense, and shutting the opposition down.

They're almost like the new NJ devils. It's a young team though, so hopefully they can be consistent and keep it up.

[Riverboat Danglers]

I said before when people were all worried about the Blues when Hitch took over that this is gonna be a good thing. He has made the lines the way I would of imagined them in the first place. He has given ice time to their best players like Oshie and Backes. I still do believe this team can compete for a playoff spot this year. If Halak can start really playing some good hockey, they have enough to at least be in the battle for a playoff spot. Backes and Oshie are both starting to rack up the points.

The only thing Hitch hasnt been able to do is kick start Stewart. At least the kid is still young and a funk like this is expected at times, but he defiantly is killing some peoples teams ATM