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Thread: New York Islanders

  1. #46
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    Good discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    It's not a silver bullet, it's an indicator of future performance. Also, it's not an arbitrarily chosen period. It's his last 54 games and it begins with the game he and the Isles turned their season around. It's not like I sliced the season into chunks only where he scored. And even if you include the previous 5 games, you end up with a pace of 73 points. You're telling me that expecting Tavares to improve from 73 to 80 is a massive increase?
    Its arbitrary in the sense that you chose a range of games that best supported your argument which is fine I guess but I don't think that necessarily paints the most accurate picture. I think its far more interesting to look at a player's entire season and break it down that way instead of cherry picking. The most common breakdown is using the all-star break as the dividing line. How did that work out?

    before: 36pts in 46gp = .783 ppg (64 pt pace)
    after: 31pts in 33gp = .939 (77 pt pace)

    or how bout we look at how he performed with and without Okposo in the lineup?

    without: 31 in 41 0.805 ppg (66 pt pace)
    with: 34 in 38 0.895 ppg (73 pt pace)

    see? these numbers actually support your argument without the need to cherry pick!

    As far as the difference between 73 and 80-85, yes that's a big difference, ask any poolie on these boards and they'll tell you that that is often the margin of difference between winning a pool and finishing second.

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post

    No, he didn't. But that was 19 games to start the season as opposed to 54 to end it. Big difference. Also, do you remember Stamkos going from 40's to 90's in one season? Not saying it will happen with Tavares, just pointing out that if you present an extreme example to support your case, there is a counter-example to refute it.

    That's the whole point man! lol You can't project a player's future production based off a favorable stretch of games you have to look at his whole season and the trends that present themselves within it...when he gets hot or cold, how his linemates affect him, how team injuries hurt him or help him, etc...We only have 2 yrs of data for JT but the biggest trend I see is that he seems to start the season off slow and finish strong. His numbers before the break in both seasons were significantly below ppg while after he's very close to ppg pace, that may be trend that is at play here.


    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post

    Tavares did not get his numbers inflated by playing Malkin-less and Crosby-less Pens four times. He got 3 points ih those four games. And against the Caps, he only managed 1 point. A breakdown of Tavares' points by team will show you that he scores against the better teams just as he does against the weaker ones:
    Interesting to see the breakdown of teams, thanks for posting that.

    A couple points to note:

    -Actually JT had 4 pt in 4 gp against the Pens without Sid and Malkin, I'm not sure he's going to do any better with them in the lineup
    -Buffalo was his cash cow last season...this season Buffalo has added Leino, Boyes, Regehr and Ehrhoff, I doubt they'll be quite the same easy pickings again

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    That was a very minor point in my argument really. The strongest one is that he did manage an almost PPG pace over a reasonably long stretch of games to end the season and expecting him to maintain or even slightly improve on that pace is not unreasonable. Okposo did not play with Tavares EV very much, although he must have helped on the PP during the time that he shared with Tavares. Streit coming back will certainly not hurt his production either.
    if it was a minor point and had no effect because he didn't play with him then why even mention it? I'm confused now because in your initial post you said: we can surmise that had he had better talent around him, like Streit and Okposo on the PP for most of the year, he would have seen an increase in his PP points as well. Am I missing something or misunderstanding you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by b0ndon View Post
    I think one of the biggest things that has to happen as bad as it sounds is Dipietro has to go down with an injury early. I think the team is just better with Montoya in net. All the distraction that Dipietro brings with regards to his inability to stay healthy can't be a good thing IMO.
    Dipietro is certainly a distraction .Its not as if he's a forward they can hide on the 4th line while mounting a comeback from injury

    I felt the team really connected with Montoya , played hard for him.
    When Dipietro played a few games at the very end of the season you can tell the difference in emotions .

    Milbury's lasting stain .

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    Good discussion
    I'm having fun too, although I think we may have to agree to disagree

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    Its arbitrary in the sense that you chose a range of games that best supported your argument which is fine I guess but I don't think that necessarily paints the most accurate picture. I think its far more interesting to look at a player's entire season and break it down that way instead of cherry picking. The most common breakdown is using the all-star break as the dividing line. How did that work out?
    Well, it seems arbitrary to you but to me it is a significant turning point in the Isles' and Tavares' season. It is definitely more telling than an arbitrary boundary such as the all-star break. In the first 28 games, the Isles were losing a lot, their confidence as a team was low and the confidence of indiviual players was low. In the last 54 games, their record improved significantly as did Tavares' production. Further, this slice makes sense because it is a continuation into the next season. It is a reasonably long period from which to infer future performance. I feel it's a lot more likely we see more of the last 54 games from the Isles and Tavares than the first 28.

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    or how bout we look at how he performed with and without Okposo in the lineup?

    without: 31 in 41 0.805 ppg (66 pt pace)
    with: 34 in 38 0.895 ppg (73 pt pace)

    see? these numbers actually support your argument without the need to cherry pick!
    Those numbers may SEEM to support my argument but Tavares actually did not play with Okposo very much. See the FrozenPool line combos and note how little time the two shared on the ice.

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    As far as the difference between 73 and 80-85, yes that's a big difference, ask any poolie on these boards and they'll tell you that that is often the margin of difference between winning a pool and finishing second.
    Yes, it is a big difference between projecting 73 and 80-85. But that was not the difference I was pointing out. What I was emphasising was the difference between expecting 80-85 based on a previous performance of 73 vs. 80. The difference between 73 and 80 is about 10% while between 73 and 85 is 16%. Very reasonable range of percentage increase in production from 2nd to 3rd year. See this for some statistical support.

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    if it was a minor point and had no effect because he didn't play with him then why even mention it? I'm confused now because in your initial post you said: we can surmise that had he had better talent around him, like Streit and Okposo on the PP for most of the year, he would have seen an increase in his PP points as well. Am I missing something or misunderstanding you?
    Even minor points can strengthen an argument. In your post, you cited something like Okposo played with Tavares 70% of the time during the last 54 games, which isnt' true. He did not play on the same line.

    The meaning of the statement "we can surmise that had he had better talent around him, like Streit and Okposo on the PP for most of the year, he would have seen an increase in his PP points as well" can be re-phrased as "Tavares and Okposo did not play EV often. See the line combo tool for details but it was a very low percentage. So Okposo had no part in helping Tavares' production EV. On the PP, Okposo played with Tavares but less than a full year. If Okposo and Streit play on the PP with Tavares for a full year, we can expect his 2011 PP numbers to be improved from his 2010 PP numbers."
    I can't promise I'll try but I'll try to try.

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    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    I'm having fun too, although I think we may have to agree to disagree
    we'll have a gentleman's bet then, if he hits 80 you win, otherwise I win


    Even minor points can strengthen an argument. In your post, you cited something like Okposo played with Tavares 70% of the time during the last 54 games, which isnt' true. He did not play on the same line.
    oooooo yikes, I certainly never said that!

    What I actually said was "Finally, you say that he played 'mostly without Okposo' and reference that as a reason you see him improving on his numbers yet every single game Okposo played last year (38 of them) was during that 54 game stretch that you are so fond of, thats 70% of those games."

    Believe me I wouldn't make that mistake, I was a Grabner owner last year, I watched that 2nd line with great interest!

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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    we'll have a gentleman's bet then, if he hits 80 you win, otherwise I win
    You're on (but with the condition that he plays at least 80 games - gotta protect against injuries). One of us will be vindicated in about eight months.
    I can't promise I'll try but I'll try to try.

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    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    You're on (but with the condition that he plays at least 80 games - gotta protect against injuries). One of us will be vindicated in about eight months.
    haha OK man its a deal, *shake shake*
    we'll bookmark this thread and reconvene in 8 months...watch him score 79 in 80 games, that would be priceless

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    or watch the kid put up 81pts in 79 games lol haha
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    If he hits 77 (pro-rated), I win and you both lose.

    It's been an entertaining read both of you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    haha OK man its a deal, *shake shake*
    we'll bookmark this thread and reconvene in 8 months...watch him score 79 in 80 games, that would be priceless
    haha, VV, did you happen to see what Dobber has old JT pegged for in the guide?

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    Isles bid for new arena shot down again

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=5...d-rr-headlines

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    #Isles and Blake Comeau avoid arbitration; Comeu agrees to terms on one-year deal, Comeau's deal is worth $2.5 Million.
    - Katie Strang (Islanders beat writer)

    http://islanders.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=585648
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    haha, VV, did you happen to see what Dobber has old JT pegged for in the guide?
    79 points in 80 games, that's funny. Also, I read somewhere Dobber is right only 52% of the time

    Ironically, even if I lose my bet to you when JT gets 79 points, I would be quite happy with my prediction, having come to within a point.
    I can't promise I'll try but I'll try to try.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    Isles bid for new arena shot down again

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=5...d-rr-headlines
    Thanks for posting mcgoo.

    That certainly makes things interesting. If my memory of listening to Wang's interview from before the vote serves me right, Wang does not intend to finance the new arena himself. So now what's the future of the Islanders in Long Island?

    From the Globe and Mail:
    ....expect another few years of similar figures (losses), with threats of a move beginning to pick up. The Islanders could land elsewhere in the New York area (with Queens one long-rumoured destination and Brooklyn also in the mix), but with the Atlanta Thrashers moving to a Canadian locale this off-season, there will also be a lot of eyes in this country on the situation in Long Island.
    My sense is things are going to get worse before there's any progress with the Isles, which is going to keep them on "relocation watch" the next couple years. Wang is a resident and has already spent a small fortune fighting to keep them in his backyard, but even he appears ready to throw in the towel and explore other options.
    I can't promise I'll try but I'll try to try.

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    something will get done in the 11th hour (otherwise known as when Balsillie buys the team from Wang)

    sadly , the 11th hour is still 3 years away .

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    Looks like the Islanders may be looking to move ... to the eastern end of the island, to Suffolk county.
    I can't promise I'll try but I'll try to try.

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