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Thread: New York Islanders

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    I am starting a regular (I'll aim for weekly) forecast posting on the more fantasy relevant Islanders.

    Part One of my "Forecast an Islander" series - John Tavares.
    Prediction for 2011 - 80-85 points

    Justification:

    Career stats:
    2009 - GP 82, G 24, A 30, P 54
    2010 - GP 79, G 29, A 38, P 67

    Tavares saw just over a 20% increase in production from his first to second year. Keep in mind that in 2010, Tavares had less support than in 2009 - Streit missed the whole year and Okposo missed the majority of the year - yet he still managed to improve his overall numbers. If we look at his PP numbers, he had 25 points in 2009 and 24 points in 2010, we can surmise that had he had better talent around him, like Streit and Okposo on the PP for most of the year, he would have seen an increase in his PP points as well. If we assume a similar number as part of his natural progression - around 20% - between his second and third, we arrive at 80 points.

    However, the above calc only looks at full year stats without investigating within-year trends. The Islanders had a miserable first two months in 2010-11. They did not score a lot of goals, allowed many scored against and consequently only won 4 of their first 28 games. Tavares had 14 points in his first 25 games. But over the last 54 games of the season, he scored 53 points, which is 80 points when prorated over 82 games. So in fact, Tavares has already played a long enough stretch of games to have us suspect that he has already reached an 80-point pace. So here we have another sign pointing to an 80 season next year. Add the natural growth and improvement of a young star and one can easily add another 5 points.

    Remember Stamkos' huge breakout in 2009, when he doubled his totals from the previous year? Well, Tavares is just as talented as Stamkos. He has the ability to break out in a big way. He just doesn't have the same supporting cast in New York that Stamkos has in Tampa. I don't expect 95 points from him next year, but with the Islanders improving as a team overall and with the return of talented players like Streit and Okposo for a full year, I expect no less than 80 next year.


    Next, I'll look at Kyle Okposo.
    totally disagree with this, you're falling into the common trap of assuming a team is going to be better just by virtue of age + health and that the players are all going to reap massive benefits from that. Are the Isles that much improved from last year? I dont think so, perhaps marginally. They still have huge question marks on that team and project to finish last in the division again. Yeah sure, they get to start with a healthy Streit and Okposo but so what? The Pens get to start with a healthy Malkin and Crosby (that's infinitely better!), the Rags have added Richards and have a healthy Cally and Dubinsky locked in, a young D that's one year better and the best goalie in perhaps the whole league. The Devils have Parise back in full form, the Flyers finally have a true #1 goalie, you really think that the Isles are going to compete well against that much improved division where they play most of their games? No. JT will take another step forward but it wont be as dramatic as you are projecting...70-75 pts I'd expect

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    great write up, i hope ur right im banking on JT to finally break out in a couple pools.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    totally disagree with this, you're falling into the common trap of assuming a team is going to be better just by virtue of age + health and that the players are all going to reap massive benefits from that. Are the Isles that much improved from last year? I dont think so, perhaps marginally. They still have huge question marks on that team and project to finish last in the division again. Yeah sure, they get to start with a healthy Streit and Okposo but so what? The Pens get to start with a healthy Malkin and Crosby (that's infinitely better!), the Rags have added Richards and have a healthy Cally and Dubinsky locked in, a young D that's one year better and the best goalie in perhaps the whole league. The Devils have Parise back in full form, the Flyers finally have a true #1 goalie, you really think that the Isles are going to compete well against that much improved division where they play most of their games? No. JT will take another step forward but it wont be as dramatic as you are projecting...70-75 pts I'd expect
    I'm not expecting "massive" benefits at all from age + health. As I pointed out, Tavares already has shown that he's capable of a near PPG pace over a relatively long stretch of time: 53 points in 54 games (without Streit and mostly without Okposo). Why wouldn't he be able to continue and build on that next year? My predicted step for Tavares isn't dramatic at all, when you look inside the numbers from last year. The improvements of the other teams you mentioned, I don't suspect will prevent him from getting to 80 points. So what if Crosby and Malkin are back. They'll score more but so will Tavares. How does Richards influence Tavares' production? The Flyers actually had decent goaltending during the regular season. Yes, it'll be better with Bryzgalov but will it be that much better to claim that Tavares can't continue on the pace he's been on for the last 54 games. I just don't buy that.
    Last edited by VincentVega; July 28, 2011 at 1:23 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by diamondback87 View Post
    great write up, i hope ur right im banking on JT to finally break out in a couple pools.
    Thanks. Yeah, to me all the signs point to him breaking out and reaching 80 next year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    I'm not expecting "massive" benefits at all from age + health. As I pointed out, Tavares already has shown that he's capable of a near PPG pace over a relatively long stretch of time: 53 points in 54 games (without Streit and mostly without Okposo). Why wouldn't he be able to continue and build on that next year? My predicted step for Tavares isn't dramatic at all, when you look inside the numbers from last year. The improvements of the other teams you mentioned, I don't suspect will prevent him from getting to 80 points. So what if Crosby and Malkin are back. They'll score more but so will Tavares. How does Richards influence Tavares' production? The Flyers actually had decent goaltending during the regular season. Yes, it'll be better with Bryzgalov but will it be that much better to claim that Tavares can't continue on the pace he's been on for the last 54 games. I just don't buy that.
    well going from 67 pts to 85 is a pretty 'massive' jump IMO, and one which I feel is completely unjustified given that the Isles main competition will all be as good if not much better. You cant score pts when you're getting spanked by better teams, its just the way it works dude sorry

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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    well going from 67 pts to 85 is a pretty 'massive' jump IMO, and one which I feel is completely unjustified given that the Isles main competition will all be as good if not much better. You cant score pts when you're getting spanked by better teams, its just the way it works dude sorry
    As I've already pointed out, if you look at his last 54 game stretch, he managed 53 points, which is an 80 point pace. So my prediction of 80-85 is completely reasonable. It appears like a massive jump if you look at his total points from last year without analyzing the stats within the year and if you focus on the upper limit of my predicted range.
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    VV and McGoo, you are both wrong. He will finish with 77 points.

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    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    VV and McGoo, you are both wrong. He will finish with 77 points.
    Haha. I would in fact be quite happy with 77 points. Getting to within three points of my five-point range would be just fine.
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    I really dont think 85 points is that far fetched of a prediction .

    I have him pegged for 75 though .

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    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    I'm not expecting "massive" benefits at all from age + health. As I pointed out, Tavares already has shown that he's capable of a near PPG pace over a relatively long stretch of time: 53 points in 54 games (without Streit and mostly without Okposo). Why wouldn't he be able to continue and build on that next year? My predicted step for Tavares isn't dramatic at all, when you look inside the numbers from last year. The improvements of the other teams you mentioned, I don't suspect will prevent him from getting to 80 points. So what if Crosby and Malkin are back. They'll score more but so will Tavares. How does Richards influence Tavares' production? The Flyers actually had decent goaltending during the regular season. Yes, it'll be better with Bryzgalov but will it be that much better to claim that Tavares can't continue on the pace he's been on for the last 54 games. I just don't buy that.


    You keep quoting this 53 pts in 54 games number like its a magical silver bullet or something, its not, I'm sorry...its promising and cause for optimisim I'll agree with that but you can't just pick a convenient range of games and extraploate a whole season from it, it just doesn't work that way dude. For example before he went on that 53 in 54 pace he was scoreless in 5 straight, so maybe we should say he was on pace for 53 in 59 which translates to 73 pts? Is that any more accurate? Players have hot streaks and cold streaks throughout the season, it can be affected by dozens of factors...health, teamates, competition, etc. Maybe the team gets the flu and you wind up playing at 60% for a week or two trying to recover, maybe you slashed real bad on the wrist and can't shoot right for a couple weeks, there's a myriad of contributing factors that play into it. Remember a couple years ago when Kopitar started out on a tear and had like 30 pts in 19 games? Did he go on to score 130 pts that year? We all know that he didn't even come close to that so I would strongly caution against extrapolating season-long numbers from a favorable subset thereof. I would also caution from falling into the trap of assuming a player will always improve on his previous year's numbers.

    What kind of competition did JT face over those final 54 games? Well for one thing he got to play the Malkin-less and Crosby-less Pens four times, that certainly doesn't hurt. He also got to play two games against the caps sans Backstrom or Green, that doesn't hurt either. Also, almost half (42.5%) of those 54 final games were against non-playoff teams, that helps too. Finally, you say that he played 'mostly without Okposo' and reference that as a reason you see him improving on his numbers yet every single game Okposo played last year (38 of them) was during that 54 game stretch that you are so fond of, thats 70% of those games.

    He's going to be at LEAST a ppg player eventually but I don't think it happens this year and I don't find much in your argument that would suggest otherwise, especially as I've noted all the other teams in that division are going to be as good if not much better.

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    I think the team will be MUCH improved with the simple additions of a healthy Okposo and and a healthy Streit. With Niederreiter and Strome pushing some of the guys in training camp and bringing in quality depth players in Rolston and Reasoner, yes I think this team is definitely improved. Not to mention the fact that they have Al Montoya, who played extremely well in his short stint, and Nabokov, and DiPietro.

    No way this team is the same team as last year. They're going to win a lot more games.
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    Quote Originally Posted by duballstar014 View Post
    I think the team will be MUCH improved with the simple additions of a healthy Okposo and and a healthy Streit. With Niederreiter and Strome pushing some of the guys in training camp and bringing in quality depth players in Rolston and Reasoner, yes I think this team is definitely improved. Not to mention the fact that they have Al Montoya, who played extremely well in his short stint, and Nabokov, and DiPietro.

    No way this team is the same team as last year. They're going to win a lot more games.
    I don't doubt they'll be much improved dub...but every other team in their division (except perhaps the Flyers) is better too. In fact, many of the teams in the East in general have improved, so I just can't figure out who is going to give them the extra wins? So yes, more wins for sure but I dunno about 'a lot'

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    Naw you guys are way off. Its not Tavares that holds the key to the Islanders. Its...

    Milan Jurcina - Jan 6, 2011
    Jurcina, 27, has four points (two goals, two assists) in 19 games with the Islanders this season, while leading the team with a +1 rating. This season, the Islanders are 11-5-3 with Jurcina in the lineup.
    Okay in all seriousness though, I think you guys are both right to a degree. I don't particularly see Tavares hitting 80+ this year, but I think if the young guys can progress a bit and they can get some consistent goaltending from Montoya, they might have a similar result as St.Louis. I expect them to finish somewhere between 11 and 13 in the conference, with 11 being if most things go right.

    I think one of the biggest things that has to happen as bad as it sounds is Dipietro has to go down with an injury early. I think the team is just better with Montoya in net. All the distraction that Dipietro brings with regards to his inability to stay healthy can't be a good thing IMO.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    You keep quoting this 53 pts in 54 games number like its a magical silver bullet or something, its not, I'm sorry...its promising and cause for optimisim I'll agree with that but you can't just pick a convenient range of games and extraploate a whole season from it, it just doesn't work that way dude. For example before he went on that 53 in 54 pace he was scoreless in 5 straight, so maybe we should say he was on pace for 53 in 59 which translates to 73 pts? Is that any more accurate?
    It's not a silver bullet, it's an indicator of future performance. Also, it's not an arbitrarily chosen period. It's his last 54 games and it begins with the game he and the Isles turned their season around. It's not like I sliced the season into chunks only where he scored. And even if you include the previous 5 games, you end up with a pace of 73 points. You're telling me that expecting Tavares to improve from 73 to 80 is a massive increase?

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    Remember a couple years ago when Kopitar started out on a tear and had like 30 pts in 19 games? Did he go on to score 130 pts that year?
    No, he didn't. But that was 19 games to start the season as opposed to 54 to end it. Big difference. Also, do you remember Stamkos going from 40's to 90's in one season? Not saying it will happen with Tavares, just pointing out that if you present an extreme example to support your case, there is a counter-example to refute it.

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    We all know that he didn't even come close to that so I would strongly caution against extrapolating season-long numbers from a favorable subset thereof. I would also caution from falling into the trap of assuming a player will always improve on his previous year's numbers.
    It's a very reasonable assumption that a player of Tavares' caliber will improve from his 2nd to his 3rd year, IMO.

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    What kind of competition did JT face over those final 54 games? Well for one thing he got to play the Malkin-less and Crosby-less Pens four times, that certainly doesn't hurt. He also got to play two games against the caps sans Backstrom or Green, that doesn't hurt either.
    Tavares did not get his numbers inflated by playing Malkin-less and Crosby-less Pens four times. He got 3 points ih those four games. And against the Caps, he only managed 1 point. A breakdown of Tavares' points by team will show you that he scores against the better teams just as he does against the weaker ones:
    ANA - 2 GP, 1 P
    ATL - 4 GP, 3 P
    BOS - 4 GP, 3 P
    BUF - 4 GP, 8 P
    CAR - 4 GP, 1 P
    CHI - 1 GP, 0 P
    CGY - 1 GP, 3 P
    COB - 1 GP, 0 P
    COL - 2 GP, 2 P
    EDM - 1 GP, 0 P
    DAL - 1 GP, 0 P
    DET - 1 GP, 3 P
    FLA - 4 GP, 4 P
    LOS - 2 GP, 2 P
    MIN - 1 GP, 0 P
    MON - 4 GP, 3 P
    NAS - 1 GP, 0 P
    NJD - 6 GP, 2 P
    NYR - 5 GP, 8 P
    OTT - 4 GP, 2 P
    PHI - 6 GP, 3 P
    PHO - 1 GP, 1 P
    PIT - 5 GP, 4 P
    SAN - 1 GP, 1 P
    STL - 1 GP, 2 P
    TAM - 4 GP, 4 P
    TOR - 4 GP, 3 P
    VAN - 1 GP, 1 P
    WAS - 3 GP, 1 P

    Biggest success against BUF(8 P in 4 GP), NYR(8 P in 5 GP). Against PIT, he tallied 4 P in 5 GP (so playing against the Crosby-less and Malkin-less Pens did not boost his numbers). To me, nothing in these numbers stands out to say that his offensive improvement will suffer because PHI, NJ and PIT will be better next year. And NYR, while they did miss Callahan for an extended time, did have the best goalie in the league and one of the better defense. Tavares managed 8 P in 5 GP. Don't tell me Brad Richards will stop Tavares from scoring.

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    Finally, you say that he played 'mostly without Okposo' and reference that as a reason you see him improving on his numbers yet every single game Okposo played last year (38 of them) was during that 54 game stretch that you are so fond of, thats 70% of those games.
    That was a very minor point in my argument really. The strongest one is that he did manage an almost PPG pace over a reasonably long stretch of games to end the season and expecting him to maintain or even slightly improve on that pace is not unreasonable. Okposo did not play with Tavares EV very much, although he must have helped on the PP during the time that he shared with Tavares. Streit coming back will certainly not hurt his production either.
    Last edited by VincentVega; July 28, 2011 at 11:11 PM.
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    Streit's a 55 point d-man... would be shocked if virtually everyone on the team didn't see a boost in production.

    I'm not sure Tavares hits 85 or anything but would bet on 75+.

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