David Rundblad - A little context

[fantasyhockeygeek]

In a few threads it's been pointed out that Rundblad's numbers this past season in the SEL were amazing. He scored 50 points in 55 games, at the age of 20. But just how amazing were his numbers? Let's look at other peers of his:

First, let's look at SEL defensemen. These are the top P/GP seasons of any defenseman in SEL history aged 25 or under, with the defender's age in parentheses:

1. Goran Lindblom: 1979, 1.19 P/GP (23)
2. Robert Svehla: 1994, 1.05 P/GP (25)
3. Goran Lindblom: 1978, 0.97 P/GP (22)
4. Tomas Nord: 1983, 0.93 P/GP (25)
5. Nicklas Lidstrom: 1995, 0.92 P/GP (25)
6. David Rundblad: 2011, 0.91 P/GP (20)
7. Goran Lindblom: 1981, 0.86 P/GP (25)
8. Petter Nilsson: 1996, 0.85 P/GP (25)
9. Peter Anderssin: 1988, 0.82 P/GP (23)
10. Jan Huokko: 1999, 0.80 P/GP (25)

What to make of that list? Well, you can't help but notice a certain multi-Norris-winning defenseman in there with him, putting up slightly better numbers when he was five years older. Another take-away might be that there has never been another defender in the history of the SEL that has put up a points-per-game pace of more than 0.80 at the age of 20 besides David Rundblad. 21 years old? Nobody, ever... besides Rundblad. 22? One other guy. 23? Two other guys. 24? Same two other guys. 25? A handful. Precedent-setting stuff... no wonder he won the Salming Award for the SEL's top defenseman!

Ok great, but what does that tell us about him? For a more eye-opening look, let's expand our research to include a wider peer group of all skaters rather than just defensemen, but narrow it a bit to just players that were 20 and under, but still managed 0.80 P/GP or higher in the SEL:

1. Kent Nilsson: 1976, 1.50 P/GP (19)
2. Kent Nilsson: 1977, 1.31 P/GP (20)
3. Peter Forsberg: 1993, 1.23 P/GP (19)
4. Thomas Steen: 1981, 1.22 P/GP (20)
5. Peter Forsberg: 1993, 1.13 P/GP (20)
6. Thomas Gradin: 1976, 1.11 P/GP (20)
7. Thomas Sjogren: 1989, 1.05 P/GP (20)
8. Markus Naslund: 1992, 1.03 P/GP (18)
9. Tomas Sandstrom: 1983, 1.03 P/GP (18)
10. Michael Hjalm: 1983, 1.03 P/GP (20)
11. Mats Naslund: 1980, 1.03 P/GP (20)
12. Bengt Lundholm: 1976, 1.08 P/GP (19)
13. Markus Naslund: 1983, 1.00 P/GP (19)
14. Henrik Zetterberg: 2001, 0.98 P/GP (20)
15. Henrik Sedin: 2000, 0.94 P/GP (19)
16. David Rundblad: 2011, 0.91 P/GP (20)
17. Daniel Sedin: 2000, 0.90 P/GP (19)
18. Nicklas Backstrom: 2007, 0.89 P/GP (19)
19. Daniel Sedin: 1999, 0.84 P/GP (18)

Rundblad is the only defenseman on that list. How did/have that same short list of players done in the NHL?

Kent Nilsson: 686 P in 553 NHL GP (1.24 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.64 P/GP
Peter Forsberg: 885 P in 708 NHL GP (1.25 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.41 P/GP
Mats Naslund: 634 P in 651 NHL GP (0.97 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.38 P/GP
Henrik Sedin: 666 P in 810 NHL GP (0.82 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.37 P/GP
Daniel Sedin: 651 P in 787 NHL GP (0.83 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.35 P/GP
Markus Naslund: 869 P in 1117 NHL GP (0.78 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.27 P/GP
Nicklas Backstrom: 323 P in 323 NHL GP (1 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.23 P/GP
Henrik Zetterberg: 555 P in 586 NHL GP (0.95 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.23 P/GP
Thomas Gradin: 593 P in 677 NHL GP (0.88 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.13 P/GP
Tomas Sandstrom: 857 P in 983 NHL GP (0.87 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.11 P/GP
Thomas Steen: 817 P in 950 NHL GP (0.86 P/GP) with a peak season of 1.1 P/GP
Bengt Lundholm: 143 P in 275 NHL GP (0.52 P/GP) with a peak season of 0.72 P/GP
Thomas Sjogren: never played in the NHL
Michael Hjalm: never played in the NHL

Very few players have accomplished what Rundblad did. Coming into his draft year his stats were fairly unremarkable, but he wouldn't be the first player to explode after he had been drafted. He also wouldn't be the first player to explode then flop back down to earth.

There is no question that Rundblad's accomplishment in the SEL last year was incredible.

[franklin]

Great post HPG! Thanks for sharing!

[Old_Smokie]

Very insightful! Thank you so much for the analytical breakdown: It's always good to see some numbers to keep us fantasy guys grounded and really put things into perspective.

[Big Ev]

You also have to take into account that he got 20+ minutes a night and top PP duties, which young d-men in Sweden don't usually get. Kudos to Anders Forsberg for playing his 3 young d-men so much.

I would have pegged him for the same NHL upsuide even if he had 10-20 points this year. 50 point d-man in the NHL.

[Scribe]

Great stuff, HPG. Nice to get the proof of how rare that accomplishment was and to point out his age -- which makes all the more remarkable.

[fungchen3]

HPG,

Great work by you putting this into perspective. No matter how you slice it, what Rundblad did in the SEL was amazing. The question is: Not IF, but WHEN will Rundblad start making an offensive impact in the NHL?

[ross10019]

Wow, nice work!

What makes this scary is what the Swedish national team blueline will look like in a few short years:

Kronwall
Edler
Hedman
Karlsson
Rundblad
Enstrom
Ekman-Larsson
Larsson

What the hell?!?

The only consolation, for Canadians, is the look of our blueline for the next 10 years:

Doughty
Keith
Weber
Letang
Myers
Staal
Pietrangelo
Subban
Fowler
and Phaneuf and Bouwmeester if they can screw their heads on, might squeeze in there

[Princeton]

Fantastic analysis HPG.

It is greatly appreciated.

Would you care to make a prediction for the upcoming season?

[fungchen3]

Wow, nice work!

What makes this scary is what the Swedish national team blueline will look like in a few short years:

Kronwall
Edler
Hedman
Karlsson
Rundblad
Enstrom
Ekman-Larsson
Larsson

Don't forget about Douglas "The Killer" Murray. He doesn't score much, but damn, he's a beast.

[wendelclark17]

great stuff HPG!!! thanks for the write up!!

[fungchen3]

One more thought - I'm very excited to see Rundblad make his debut.

But, due to Ottawa's position, and that Karlsson/Gonchar will likely be the main offensive guys to start the season, how long will it take him to really produce?

Will he pay immediate dividends out of the gate like Forsberg and Backstrom did or will he take longer to find his game like the Twins, Naslund and Zetterberg did?

If he were to play a full season and put up 35-40 points, I would be thrilled. If he exceeded that, I would be amazed.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Would you care to make a prediction for the upcoming season?

Awww hell no! I don't do projections. Ask Dobber!

[JagrBomb]

i thought the sens missed out on tarasenko...but now im wondering what on earth the blues were thinking trading this kid.

[fungchen3]

i thought the sens missed out on tarasenko...but now im wondering what on earth the blues were thinking trading this kid.

At the time the Blues were loaded with young D in the pipeline: E.Johnson, Pietrangelo, Cole, Junland, Polak and Nikitin. I guess they figured Tarasenko was worth giving up a young D for. I know Jarmo Kekalainen loved Tarasenko.

[dyzfunctioned]

Damnit HPG... as if this guy isn't hard enough to acquire as is.