Reply With Quotewow . great write up. agree with almost all of it although i dont see (or maybe its hope as a rangers fan) broduer being a top 10 goalie and would probably take even more goalies in front of him.
rep to you.
[4T2's Towel Rack] Valuable Veterans
In fantasy hockey circles, youth is valued as much as, if not more than, any of the stats that actually count towards your record. This is multiplied significantly in both full and partial keeper leagues. A 19-year-old kid who can score 60 points is worth far more than a 35+ player who will score the same. Often times, the veterans will fall far deeper in a draft than they should. In two One Year Leagues, I snagged Selanne behind guys like Pominville, Zherdev and Wolski. There is no way a proven talent like Selanne should fall that far.
Obviously, not every aging player is going to produce like Selanne or Lidstrom. Even those two come with their own risks. Often, players past the age of 35 will miss time due to injuries or they start losing ice time (and production) to younger stars. The following players have all been valuable fantasy contributors at one point in their careers. Do they still deserve a spot on your team? Or is it time to put these old thoroughbreds out to pasture?
*Ages noted for beginning of 2011-2012 season
Teemu Selanne - 41 - 73GP - 31-49-80
Prior to the 2010-11 season, The Finnish Flash had played seasons of 26, 65, 54 games. While he was still able to produce at approximately .85 pts/game, it looked like his career was all but over. Many figured this year would be a send off for the future Hall of Famer.
Selanne then proceeded to score at better than a point-per-game and had his healthiest season since 2006-07. Many wonder if he will take this opportunity to end his career on a high note. Don't bet on it. In the playoffs, he was the only Duck who showed any amount of passion and desire to win. This guy is a true competitor.
While it would be unreasonable to expect him to score at this past seasons clip at age 41, it isn't impossible. Reasonable expectations would be around 70 games played and 60-points. Yes, there is a retirement risk, but for a talent of Selanne's ilk, it is well worth it.
Nicklas Lidstrom - 41 - 82GP - 16-46-62
After Lidstrom's "down" season of "only" 49 points in 2009-10, many were expecting a decline this year leading into retirement. He responded to his critics by finishing second in defenseman scoring with 62-points. While he may have lost a step defensively, finishing as a minus player (minus-2) for the first time in his career, his offensive production more than makes up for it.
While Lidstrom has not announced his decision for next year yet, it is hard to imagine an elite player wanting to hang it up after that kind of season. With teammate Brian Rafalski calling it quits, you have to imagine Holland will do everything in his power to bring his captain back for one more year.
With many aging players, injuries are a huge risk. There are no worries about that with Lidstrom. The guy has better conditioning than 90% of the players half his age. In 19 NHL campaigns, he has never missed more than six games in single season. He played 80+ in 14 of them.
While there are some safer bets on D with the amount of young talent out there, I would be hard-pressed to drop Lidstrom in a limited keeper. Treat his value as that of a 50-point defenceman until he officially hangs the skates up.
Dwayne Roloson - 41 - 54GP-24W - .914 - 2.59
While Roloson's 24-wins in 54-games may not look spectacular, you have to keep in mind that he played on a dreadful Islanders team for the first part of the season. After being traded to Tampa Bay, he posted 18 wins in 34 starts. Those stats may not be what you are looking for in a first-string goalie but are excellent for a back-up on your fantasy team.
Roloson is another true competitor. He wants to win and is capable of stealing games for a decent team having an off night. He is a UFA at the end of the season, but his play through the first two rounds of the playoffs could land him a mentoring gig for a team with a young goalie. If he is still available late in your draft or you are out of other goaltending options, take a flyer, you may be pleasantly surprised.
That being said, if he leads Tampa to a Stanley Cup, he may decide to retire on top.
Sergei Gonchar -37 - 67GP - 7-20-27
Fantasy GMs are a fickle bunch. Gonchar has been an elite producer for most of his career, consistently approaching 60 points when healthy. Three years ago he had 26-points in 25 games due to a shoulder injury. Two years ago; 50-points in 62 games. This past season he managed only 27-points in 67 games.
Where did the offense go? Quick answer... he left it in Pittsburgh. Ottawa only had one player who cracked the 50-point plateau last year. Without an offensive-minded team, Gonchar will never put up those numbers again. Couple that with a body that is on the downhill side of its peak and you wind up with another outing like last year.
As long as Gonchar is in Ottawa, don't expect more than 35-points. Should he be moved to an offensive team, his skill set has not diminished to the point that 50-points wouldn't be reasonable.
Chris Pronger- 37 - 50GP - 4-21-25
Chris Pronger is an absolute beast in leagues that count PIMs and Hits especially since you can count on him for around 45 points. His hard-nosed style has taken its toll on his body though. Pronger was limited to just 50 regular season games this year and missed a lot of time in the playoffs as well. He is a fierce competitor and you know it has to be serious for him to be sitting out.
Given his recent injuries and the style he plays, you have to wonder if we are witnessing the end of the career of a great defenseman. He is the polar opposite of Lidstrom. While Lidstrom's style lends itself to longevity; Pronger's style has shortened careers in the past.
Be wary of Pronger, while he is still capable of playing the game at an elite level, his injuries could cause him to miss significant time. He should no longer be drafted among the elite d-men, but as he starts to fall to later rounds, the risk becomes more manageable.
Ray Whitney - 39 - 75GP - 17-40-57
As a fantasy contributor, Ray Whitney is the equivalent of Rodney Dangerfield. He gets no respect. He is a lock to hit 50-points every year which can be perfect for rounding out the wingers on your roster. He will probably not hit 70-points again but 60 is not out of the question.
On a young Pheonix team, Whitney is a mentor to many players. He doesn't just coach them though, he leads by example. With one more year left on his contract, this could be his last season. Treat him accordingly.
Marty Brodeur - 39 - 56GP - 23W - .903, 2.45
There was a time not so long ago when Brodeur was the undisputed top goalie in the league. If you drafted any goalie ahead of him, you would be laughed out of the league. Those days are long gone now. Injuries limited him to just 31 starts in 2008-09. 2009-10 saw him back to form posting solid numbers. Last season once again, the injury bug bit him holding him to 56 games. We were even witness to something we've never seen before from Brodeur when he was healthy, he was benched in favour of the back-up goaltender.
Brodeur is the one of the greatest goaltenders of all time in the NHL. He is still a top 10 goalie in the league. If healthy, he could probably even be among the top 5 this coming year. That is a big "if" though. Even if the injuries aren't severe enough to keep him out of the lineup, they will negatively impact his play. Other than his recent injuries, you have to go all the way back to 96-97 to find a season where he played less than 70 games. That is a huge workload for anybody.
As far as Marty goes for next year, he is too talented to pass up, but there are anywhere from 10-15 goalies that would be safer options on your team. Hope for 60 healthy games on a New Jersey squad that will look more like they did in the second half of the season. 35-wins and solid peripherals could be realistic.
Daniel Alfredsson - 38 - 54GP - 14-17-31
Alfie has been a productive fantasy contributor for so long that it is hard to believe after one down season, GMs are already writing him off. He may be 38-years-old, but he has another year or two left in him. While his best years are behind him, offensive skill does not disappear that quickly.
Injuries combined with a streaky/injured Spezza and a lack of quality teammates produced a very poor season. A healthy Spezza alone would go a long way to improving his stats. Prior to this past season, Alfredsson hadn't scored less than 70-points in 9 years, even though he consistently misses 4 - 12 games every season. He has been the picture of consistency. That talent is not gone.
2010-2011 will be a bounce-back season. While he may not have the teammates to help him, he should approach the 70-point mark once again. Treat him as a 65-point player and you will be rewarded as such.
Conclusion
Hiding behind many of those gray beards are the same players we grew up watching. They may be a little slower now, but they have found a way to keep playing the game at the highest level. These guys will provide the best value for you as they fall to later rounds in your drafts. Everyone is looking for a sleeper pick, look no further than the veterans who probably need a little more sleep themselves these days.
Last edited by 4T2; May 27, 2011 at 6:53 PM.
Without me, it's only "aweso".
wow . great write up. agree with almost all of it although i dont see (or maybe its hope as a rangers fan) broduer being a top 10 goalie and would probably take even more goalies in front of him.
rep to you.
10 team Full Keeper Roto League
4C-4LW-4RW-6D-2G-5bench-unlimited farm.
C= eichel,horvat,malkin,kuznetsov
LW= forsberg,kreider,lee,b.tkchuch,hertle,granlund
RW= reinhart,radulov,hoffman,laine,hayes
D= doughty,ghostebehere,karlsson,jones,klefbom,dahlin ,skjei
G= price,murray,grubauer,georgiev,ullmark,samsonov
under250gp=nichushkin,tuch,mathesson,marino,pujuja rvi,hosang,terry,andersson,j.hughes,patrik,crouse, zadina,podkolzin,k.miller,nedeljkovic,kravtsov,hay ton
--G,A,P,PPP,SHP,GWG,PIMS,+/-,SOG,hits,FOW,blks-Wins,GAA,SV%,saves,SO
Quality piece my friend - I wouldn't expect any less from you.
Great article bud, awesome insight on some of the more aged players in the league. I'm gonna be sitting on some of these guys in my annual one-year v
Agree 100% about ray Whitney. Dude gets no respect.
Also I loved the last line of the article. Haha well said.
Goalies: If I'm pickin em you best be sittin em!
Great stuff 4T2, totally agree with the sentiment that these guys are so undervalued compared to younger players, when they are often more reliable.
Another guy I find drops low in drafts but ends up contributing decently is Mike Knuble, another guy who gets very little recognition or respect considering his consistency.
About Brodeur:
Fact: the Devils were dismal under John McLean, going 10-23-3 from the start of the season until December 23rd.
Fact: Marty's numbers up to December 23rd were 5 W in 23 starts (W% of 0.22), a SV% of 0.887 and a GAA of 3.49
Fact: on December 23rd, John McLean was fired.
Since John McLean was fired on December 23rd, things look a little different.
Fact: The Devils have been good, going 27-15-3. That record, over an 82-game season, is good for 101 points in the standings.
Fact: Marty's numbers since December 23rd were 17 W in 30 starts (W% of 0.567), a SV% of 0.920, and a GAA of 1.91
Write off Marty at your own risk. I know I'll be trying to acquire him in all my leagues this summer...
huh? his career high is 67 pts which he's accomplished twice...scoring 100 pts as a d-man is some pretty special company, the last to do it was Brian Leetch in his 91-92 seasonOriginally Posted by 4T2
My bad, you are right. Was looking at the PIMs column by accident. I'll edit that when I get home and give you rep for pointing that out. I thought that seemed high. Good eye mcgoo
Without me, it's only "aweso".
ah I see, I see, the old 'looking at the wrong column' phenomenon, I've been bitten by that one myself
anyway, I liked the article, you're absolutely right that most fantasy GMs overvalue youth far too much and pass on guys they should be snatching up. Another dynamic I've found in keeper leagues though is that a younger player of comparable output as a vet is considered more valuable not only for the long career ahead of him but also for pure trade value. So while its never a bad idea to grab some proven vets for a run at the championship (esp those who have slipped in the draft) you have to take em with the intention of playing them til the wheels come off because their trade value will be near nil...its kinda stupid but that's the way it overwhelmingly seems to be
great stuff buddy. Looking forward to more of these soon.
"We've had a couple shakers in this place. This year we haven't had the time. We had a couple good ones last year, right?" - Phil Kessel
Thanks man, I really appreciate it.
Haha, glad you liked that, wasn't sure if that line would go over well or not.
Knuble was on my list along with many others who didn't make the cut. The article was little long as is. Unfortunately can't include everyone. I may do a part two at some point. Glad you liked it!
I wasn't suggesting writing him off, you make some very good points. He is still more than capable of playing at an elite level. The years have taken their toll on his body though. I would have a hard time drafting him over a younger proven #1 goalie. Of course, it's Marty, so I won't be surprised if I'm wrong.
Haha, that was a brutal mistake on my part. I didn't remember him hitting 100 so I really should have been more careful. Ah well, live and learn... well at any rate, you live.ah I see, I see, the old 'looking at the wrong column' phenomenon, I've been bitten by that one myself
anyway, I liked the article, you're absolutely right that most fantasy GMs overvalue youth far too much and pass on guys they should be snatching up. Another dynamic I've found in keeper leagues though is that a younger player of comparable output as a vet is considered more valuable not only for the long career ahead of him but also for pure trade value. So while its never a bad idea to grab some proven vets for a run at the championship (esp those who have slipped in the draft) you have to take em with the intention of playing them til the wheels come off because their trade value will be near nil...its kinda stupid but that's the way it overwhelmingly seems to be
I wanted to mention that these guys don't make for good trade bait. I couldn't have gotten anything back for Lidstrom or Selanne this year, not that I wanted to move them anyway. Unfortunately, I had to cut that part of the article for length restrictions. Thanks for bringing it up man.
Thanks man, I've got plans for a couple of articles in the not-so-distant future I hope.
Without me, it's only "aweso".
I'll keep you to that
You and me both! Yea his record with Maclean sucked but absolutely every Devil was awful under Maclean.
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