Montreal Canadiens

[ericdaoust]

Originally Posted by PriceCrazed

If pk signs for 6 yrs at 5 mil wouldnt be bad. If its that much per year maybe try for the seventh (not sure when he'd be ufa) i know it is significant for a still developing player but after a bridge contract mtl will end up paying more ( ie price). In two years he'll want 6 plus and could probably get it

The problem is the cap coming down next year. That is why Del Zotto signed 2 years for 5.1 total. Players need to take shorter bridge contracts that bring us to days where the cap starts rising again.

[habs83]

Originally Posted by ericdaoust

The problem is the cap coming down next year. That is why Del Zotto signed 2 years for 5.1 total. Players need to take shorter bridge contracts that bring us to days where the cap starts rising again.

PK should sign the bridge contract. That's what everyone on the team did, and to not do this sends a "I'm bigger than the team" message. But more than that, just like Eric said, it's first and foremost a math question.

Here is why, and it illustrates Eric's comment. (Please Cole, don't retire, otherwise all of this is worth nothing.)

With Gomez's buyout, they have 14 players signed for about 51.5M$.

Pac-xx-Cole
xx-Plek-Gionta
Moen-Eller-Bourque
Prust-xx-xx
xx

Markov-Emelin
Gorges-Kaberle
Diaz-xx
xx

Price
xx

Here comes the second buyout.
I guess it will be Kaberle, whatever he does this season. The Habs lacks forwards prospects with size that can play in the top 9, so the other logical candidate (Bourque) is probably going to stay. All depends on what he does this season. So this will free 4,25M$ from the cap.

13 players = 47.25

RFAs to be signed:
White
Weber
Desharnais

The tricky one here is Desharnais. I'm very curious to see for how much he signs. I guess that, if he come close to replicate last season numbers, it will be around 4-4.5 per for a 3-4 years contract. White and Weber are pretty much replaceable by players with similar salaries, or signed without much of a raise (could even be a pay cut in Weber's case).

RFAs will then eat up around 6M$. Total: 53.25M$/16 players.

Either this season or next, Galchenyuk will be on the team. 3.2M$ added to the cap.

Back-up goalie: 1M$, give or take.

12th and 13th forwards: Armstrong and Nokelainen type of guys. Might be Dumont, might be free agents... in any case, 1.5M$ max for the two of them.

6th D (assuming Weber or the guy replacing him is the 7th D): best case scenario is that Tinordi is ready, since he carries a 1M$ cap hit. Otherwise, the Habs will have to spend on a UFA.

That's 21 players for a total of 60M$. So this is roughly 4M$ under the cap.

SOOOOOOOOOO... this is why signing PK to a 5M$ contract or more per season doesn't make sense. Bergevin would then be forced into a trade to shed salary.

After 2013-14, the cap should raise and Gionta, Markov and Emelin are off the books, with Eller being the only notable RFA. Emelin is a keeper, but there would then be more than enough money to sign PK to a lucrative long term extension.

[ericdaoust]

Originally Posted by habs83

PK should sign the bridge contract. That's what everyone on the team did, and to not do this sends a "I'm bigger than the team" message. But more than that, just like Eric said, it's first and foremost a math question.

Here is why, and it illustrates Eric's comment. (Please Cole, don't retire, otherwise all of this is worth nothing.)

With Gomez's buyout, they have 14 players signed for about 51.5M$.

Pac-xx-Cole
xx-Plek-Gionta
Moen-Eller-Bourque
Prust-xx-xx
xx

Markov-Emelin
Gorges-Kaberle
Diaz-xx
xx

Price
xx

Here comes the second buyout.
I guess it will be Kaberle, whatever he does this season. The Habs lacks forwards prospects with size that can play in the top 9, so the other logical candidate (Bourque) is probably going to stay. All depends on what he does this season. So this will free 4,25M$ from the cap.

13 players = 47.25

RFAs to be signed:
White
Weber
Desharnais

The tricky one here is Desharnais. I'm very curious to see for how much he signs. I guess that, if he come close to replicate last season numbers, it will be around 4-4.5 per for a 3-4 years contract. White and Weber are pretty much replaceable by players with similar salaries, or signed without much of a raise (could even be a pay cut in Weber's case).

RFAs will then eat up around 6M$. Total: 53.25M$/16 players.

Either this season or next, Galchenyuk will be on the team. 3.2M$ added to the cap.

Back-up goalie: 1M$, give or take.

12th and 13th forwards: Armstrong and Nokelainen type of guys. Might be Dumont, might be free agents... in any case, 1.5M$ max for the two of them.

6th D (assuming Weber or the guy replacing him is the 7th D): best case scenario is that Tinordi is ready, since he carries a 1M$ cap hit. Otherwise, the Habs will have to spend on a UFA.

That's 21 players for a total of 60M$. So this is roughly 4M$ under the cap.

SOOOOOOOOOO... this is why signing PK to a 5M$ contract or more per season doesn't make sense. Bergevin would then be forced into a trade to shed salary.

After 2013-14, the cap should raise and Gionta, Markov and Emelin are off the books, with Eller being the only notable RFA. Emelin is a keeper, but there would then be more than enough money to sign PK to a lucrative long term extension.

Thanks for the analysis. That puts it in numbers.

Players are going to have to sacrifice and some player agents are trying to put that on someone else rather than their client.

[newfcollins]

Originally Posted by habs83

I guess it will be Kaberle, whatever he does this season. The Habs lacks forwards prospects with size that can play in the top 9, so the other logical candidate (Bourque) is probably going to stay. All depends on what he does this season. So this will free 4,25M$ from the cap.

13 players = 47.25

RFAs to be signed:
White
Weber
Desharnais

The tricky one here is Desharnais. I'm very curious to see for how much he signs. I guess that, if he come close to replicate last season numbers, it will be around 4-4.5 per for a 3-4 years contract. White and Weber are pretty much replaceable by players with similar salaries, or signed without much of a raise (could even be a pay cut in Weber's case).

Two points here:

1) If you're Subban's agent and thinking the same thing, wouldn't you believe Subban is more valuable than Desharnais? So if Desharnais does sign a four year deal at four million per, you'd have to believe Subban is worth at least that, right? But if the Habs GM wants to only sign your client for two years for $3 million per, then that's probably a big issue.

2) This is my personal preference, but I think it makes more sense to buy out Pleks. He's got a no trade clause which will make it harder to get rid of him him, Kaberle will be gone in a year anyway whereas Pleks is signed for another three years, you get more money off the books long-term, and Pleks is now a second line centre and may drop more if Galch develops quickly.

If the Habs buy out Pleks, then by next summer, you'd have Pleks, Kaberle, Gomez and Gionta off the books. That's a big chunk of chance he gone so you can pay big money to free agents, both ours and others.

[habs83]

Originally Posted by newfcollins

Two points here:

1) If you're Subban's agent and thinking the same thing, wouldn't you believe Subban is more valuable than Desharnais? So if Desharnais does sign a four year deal at four million per, you'd have to believe Subban is worth at least that, right? But if the Habs GM wants to only sign your client for two years for $3 million per, then that's probably a big issue.

2) This is my personal preference, but I think it makes more sense to buy out Pleks. He's got a no trade clause which will make it harder to get rid of him him, Kaberle will be gone in a year anyway whereas Pleks is signed for another three years, you get more money off the books long-term, and Pleks is now a second line centre and may drop more if Galch develops quickly.

If the Habs buy out Pleks, then by next summer, you'd have Pleks, Kaberle, Gomez and Gionta off the books. That's a big chunk of chance he gone so you can pay big money to free agents, both ours and others.

1) I agree that Subban will get more than Desharnais... when he'll sign his third contract. That's another perfect example of the bridge contract. Desharnais accpted a two year second contract and is now on it.

2) It would be ridiculous to buy Plekanec out. Even if Bergevin don't see him in his long term plans, Plekanec have value on the market, you will have an asset for him. His no trade clause is not a full one. Even with a full trade clause, there are ways to trade a player (Luongo, per exemple). The buyout should be use on an asset that is overpaid and that the Habs can't trade at all.

[newfcollins]

Originally Posted by habs83

1) I agree that Subban will get more than Desharnais... when he'll sign his third contract. That's another perfect example of the bridge contract. Desharnais accpted a two year second contract and is now on it.

2) It would be ridiculous to buy Plekanec out. Even if Bergevin don't see him in his long term plans, Plekanec have value on the market, you will have an asset for him. His no trade clause is not a full one. Even with a full trade clause, there are ways to trade a player (Luongo, per exemple). The buyout should be use on an asset that is overpaid and that the Habs can't trade at all.

1) Actually DD is on his third contract. It's not really a bridge contract because until last year, he was a career minor leaguer.

2) But Pleks is overpaid. He's not great at the faceoffs, horrible at the shootout, doesn't make his linemates better, is dropping down the depth chart, not consistent offensively year-to-year. Not sure if there's a big market for guys like him when he's making $5 million a year.

[ericdaoust]

Originally Posted by newfcollins

2) But Pleks is overpaid. He's not great at the faceoffs, horrible at the shootout, doesn't make his linemates better, is dropping down the depth chart, not consistent offensively year-to-year. Not sure if there's a big market for guys like him when he's making $5 million a year.

I don't think he is overpaid at all. Look at the team PK% which ranked #2 in the league. He was the MVP of that unit, especially at 5 on 3. The offensive inconsistencies have more to do with the supporting cast than anything else. Give him competent wingers and things will go better. And no, Andrei Kostitsyn and Rene Bourque are not competent wingers. Galchenyuk and Gionta... maybe. He is one of the top defensive forwards in the league and in the end $5 million under the old system did not buy you much.

The second buyout will be Bourque or Kaberle.

[ericdaoust]

Regarding Subban, the year-to-year salary isn't the concern. It's the cap hit hence the need for a shorter contract. The long contracts work when the cap keeps going up and clearly that is not the case this summer. After that the cap will start rising again and Subban will be able to get more money later.

[habs83]

Originally Posted by ericdaoust

I don't think he is overpaid at all. Look at the team PK% which ranked #2 in the league. He was the MVP of that unit, especially at 5 on 3. The offensive inconsistencies have more to do with the supporting cast than anything else. Give him competent wingers and things will go better. And no, Andrei Kostitsyn and Rene Bourque are not competent wingers. Galchenyuk and Gionta... maybe. He is one of the top defensive forwards in the league and in the end $5 million under the old system did not buy you much.

The second buyout will be Bourque or Kaberle.

Regarding Subban, the year-to-year salary isn't the concern. It's the cap hit hence the need for a shorter contract. The long contracts work when the cap keeps going up and clearly that is not the case this summer. After that the cap will start rising again and Subban will be able to get more money later.

I agree 100% with you on both points. We can't say that Plekanec don't make his linemates better... he didn't have any linemates to work with last season. When you have to pass the puck to Palushaj, Moen, Blunden or Geoffrion, how are you suppose to make them better?

[ericdaoust]

Originally Posted by habs83

I agree 100% with you on both points. We can't say that Plekanec don't make his linemates better... he didn't have any linemates to work with last season. When you have to pass the puck to Palushaj, Moen, Blunden or Geoffrion, how are you suppose to make them better?

All four of the names you mentioned are borderline players to begin with. I'm still upset about that Moen contract.