I'm still keeping Crawford - more track record of success.
Hi everybody,
Points-only keeper league (2 points for goalie win, 3 points for shutout, 1 point for goal or assist) and we're limited to keeping 2 goalies for next year. I have these 3 goalies:
Dubynk
Lundqvist
Crawford
I'm keeping Lundqvist so just wondering everybody's opinion on who to keep between Crawford/Dubynk. Dobber just recently mentioned he thinks Dubynk will be a top-5 goalie next year!
On a side note, my goalie prospects are Allen, Mrazek, and Raanta
Thanks!
I'm still keeping Crawford - more track record of success.
Crawford for me. As Horrorfan said he is more proven.
Dubnyk is bound for some regression just don't know how much and he is no longer playing for a contract.
I'm picking Crawford, but it's pretty close.
When do you have to make your decision.
I don't think Crawford is going anywhere, but if you have time to hold off, it would be interesting to see as a "just in case" he gets dealt.
As it stands right now, I would also take Crawford but I think Dubnyk is going to make believers out of a lot of people this year and he isn't that far behind Crawford.
10 Team, Points Only, Cash League
25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt
Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink
G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger
"Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."
Is there not anything you can do on the trade market? I'd keep Crawford but Dubnyk seems too good (at least right now) to let go for nothing.
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Very tough decision - you have 3 coveted fantasy goalies, so you should try to flip one of them for sure. Do you think you can win next year? If not, maybe you make a bold move and flip Lundqvist to a contender for a nice return and keep the two younger goalies.
Crawford > Dubnyk.
Anyone can catch lightning in a bottle (see Hammond) but to duplicate that... ???
You know what you're getting in Crawford probably top 10... and Dubnyk... who knows.
(Dobber also strongly endorsed Pavalec in the guide 2 years ago (no... I can't just let that go... LOL)
I'm going with Dubnyk.
Here's why:
1. Cup hangover. Teams have 'em.
2. Back-up threat. Dubnyk = none. Crawford = Darling. For anybody that watched Darling this year, he's more than capable of taking 25... even 30gp off Crawford... and Q may want to keep Crow a bit fresher for next playoffs.
3. Team. CHI has cap problems. Their team will not be as strong for the long haul next year as this past year.
I like Crawford, I do.
I'd probably draft Crawford over Dubnyk in ROTO (mostly for team win% - though I'd be handcuffing Crawford with Darling - more in a bit).
Actually... I'm not sure... I take that back. (I'm imagining myself looking at a draft board and I honestly might take Dubnyk...)
I expect Dubnyk to start 65-70gp. I expect he'll win 55%. That's 37 wins.
Whereas I expect Crawford to start 55gp. I expect he'll win 60%. That's 33 wins.
Minnesota is an excellent team.
I don't think Dubnyk will repeat his GAA/SV%... but MIN is still going to win a ton of games... and Dubnyk will start way more.
Crawford.
Dubnyk has yet to confirm his strong play.
Thanks everybody for the responses!
So background, joined a 3-year old keeper league that was expanding and I've been in the league 4 years and have won all 4 years! Took advantage of the fact that goalies are super-important in this league and never looked back.
There used to be no restrictions in how many goalies we could keep but now it will be going to 2 non-prospect goalies so hence why I can only keep two. Don't have to make decision until August at some point and I definitely will be trading one (won't lose for nothing).
My thought was that if Dubynk can win 30+ games then he'll likely have more shutouts than Crawford and thus have more fantasy points in our league, and I can likely get a better return for Crawford.
As people are saying, Crawford is definitely the safer choice but Darling does worry me a bit.
You can always trade Lundqvist back to me too, that should solve your problems!
10 team, 10 year Keeper League, no cap, 15 main roster, 10 bench (keep 12), 12 prospect (keep 8)
Result: 2018 League Champion!! + 9 year runner up
Positions (at any given time): 9F, 4D, 2G
45 moves allowed/year; Unlimited Trades
1 free agent per month
Forwards/Defensemen Categories: G = 1, A = 1
Goaltenders: W = 2, S/O = 3
Prospects: 0pts
F: Stamkos,Malkin,Giroux,Ovechkin,Wheeler, Hertl,Marchessault,Pacioretty,Voracek,Getzlaf, Gourde,Neal,Gallagher,Vrana
D: Hedman,Letang,Giordano,Hamilton,Nurse
G: Fleury,Bishop,Mrazek,Kuemper,Varlamov,Ullmark
P: Samsonov,Kapanen,Terry,Sandstrom,Bratt,Heinen, Kahun,Kase,Toews,Sanheim,Lindblom,Annunen
I would keep Dubnyk over Crawford. Just like Dobber, I feel like he's going to be a top 5 goalie for the upcoming season. His numbers in Minnesota were ridiculous:
27-9-2, 1.78 and .936
Those numbers are better than the Hart + Vezina winner Carey Price's 44-16-6, 1.96 and .933. If you don't count the 13/14 season where Dubnyk was called out by his GM prior to the season, played for 4 different teams and most importantly had a child a couple of months before the start of the season, his numbers have been very good on a very bad hockey team in Edmonton. Minnesota has been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL over the past 3 seasons. They were 6th, 5th, and 4th in shots against. Minnesota also only had 2 less wins than Chicago last season and their team is likely to be better this year than last while Chicago is likely moving in the opposite direction. Dubnyk is also likely to play in more games than Crawford. For all of these reasons, I would rather have Dubnyk than Crawford for next season.
You're essentially picking a team here (Chicago or Minnesota) and not a goalie based on his potential individual stats. Minnesota has definitely been trending up, but they've never bested the Blackhawks yet (last season was the only season in the last five years where they were remotely close to catching Chicago). Minnesota is a very good team, but we're talking about a three-time-in-the-last-six-years Stanley Cup champion (would have won the last three straight, if not for the overtime loss in game 7 to the Kings in 2014).
I would wait a couple of weeks, just to make sure that Crawford isn't traded due to cap reasons, and then stick with him. He's the proven commodity, while Dubnyk is the "hot name" right now. If you can cash in on him right now in the trade market, then I don't think that you'll be further ahead than you are now, even if Dubnyk does get more points than Crawford next season (in which case, the margin in their difference will be very minimal).