J.Neal vs A.Ovechkin

[LeTrefle]

Call me crazy if you want, but I'm asking you anyway.
In a points only keeper league without position, can we put Neal and Ovechkin in the same category?
I know AO has a lot more value. I know AO is the big name. But do we win pools with value? with names? or with points?...
Neal outpointed AO by 16 last year. Can we assume that it will be different this year (prorated)?
AO owner ask me for Neal twice a day (we're co-workers).
Would it be out of place to ask for Ovie in a trade?
Would it be crazy for him to consider a trade involving Neal and AO?
Would you advise me to be careful with Ovie?
Thanks guys!

[blayze]

It does sound crazy, but you're right to be careful with Ovie.

It's only been 3 games, but Neal looks amazing and Ovie (and the caps altogether) looks anything but.

[Pengwin7]

I, personally, love the fact that you have BOTH Malkin & Neal.
For me, this comparison is about much more than Ovechkin vs. Neal.
I'd keep Neal simply because you own Malkin.

Here's why:
Fantasy hockey keeper leagues is all about winning or losing. Finishing in the middle is the worst.
I want to be champ or I want a good re-draft pick in future years.

Malkin & Neal have their output tied to each other.
Malkin does great, Neal does great.
Malkin does good, Neal does good.
Malkin stinks, Neal stinks.

Say you play a game where you roll two dice.
1) You can elect to roll one dice, then the other dice
or
2) You can roll one dice & double the value.


Q: Which should you do?
A: Roll one dice & double the value.

Why? Because if you roll a 6... that's 12. Even with 20 competitors, nobody can beat you and there is a good shot you'll beat everybody else. If you roll a 1, that's only 2. You'll finish dead-last (or tied for it). In fantasy hockey, this is the equivalent of winning a league or finishing last.

Pengwin7's Dice Theory >>> other theories by former Dobber artists whose name shall not be spoken.

[rainydrinkwater]

Elite tandem theory anyone? I may one of the last, but I still can't fathom Ovie not being one of the best 5-6 players in the world after seeing his first few seasons in the NHL. I may end up crying on my beer, but I still gamble with Ovechkin here.

[dejeanneret]

I'm also in the boat of not believing that Ovie has just "lost it." While he has had two down seasons in a row, the guy remains quite simply one of the best offensive players in the world in terms of what he is capable of doing. On the other hand, I think last year might be near the peak of what Neal can do.

I find the "dice theory" really interesting, and it certainly presents a take on things that I've not really considered previously. But while I may also be in the minority here, as an owner of both Ovie and Neal, I can honsetly say that I'd trade Neal for Ovie in a heartbeat, but would not consider moving Ovie for Neal straight up. In a keeper league, particularly points only, I still firmly believe that it's Ovie>>>Neal.

[GretzkysMullet]

I like that theory Pengwin7, especially when the two players are Malkin/Neal. That's probably the best example of a tandem that would be effective with that strategy.

That said, I think it's obvious OV has the higher upside. It comes down to whether you're comfortable gambling on that, when you know Neal playing with Malkin will be a solid option no matter what.

[blayze]

I think the biggest logical flaw that people have with Ovie is that they think his "upside" remains at the numbers he posted 3-4 years ago. Upside refers to future potential, not past achievements, and a lot has changed since the Caps glory days.

Going by that same logic, Selanne's "upside" would be 76 goals and 132 points.

[One87]

Originally Posted by blayze

I think the biggest logical flaw that people have with Ovie is that they think his "upside" remains at the numbers he posted 3-4 years ago. Upside refers to future potential, not past achievements, and a lot has changed since the Caps glory days.

Going by that same logic, Selanne's "upside" would be 76 goals and 132 points.

Amen.

As far as classing Neal with OV, I think he's on par as long as he's riding shotgun with Malkin and OV remains status quo with what he has recently done.

[dejeanneret]

Valid point regarding past performance not necessarily equating to upside, although Ovie is only 27 years old and (theoretically, at least) on the younger side of his prime years. Selanne, well different story. And Ovie is no Cheechoo type either in terms of a magical year coming from a marginal player.

Of course it's no sure thing that he gets back to his former 100+ point ways, but I also don't necessarily think it's illogical to say that he's in the discussion of being amongst the few players in the league who very well could.

[LeTrefle]

Interesting...
I was thinking that it would be all for Ovie, but reading your posts, it seems a lot closer.
Added a poll to have a greater sample.
Continue with your arguments, the more is the best!