Overstocked, help me pick 7

[echoboomer]

Limited keeper, 3rd year. Points only. 11 teams.

Starting positions:
9F
6D
2G
(+4 BN, +1 IR)

Woohoo hockey! Time to make some decisions quickly before my draft next week.

Here are the highlights from my roster:
Stamkos
N. Backstrom - WA
Parise
Neal
Benn
Yandle
Doughty
Halak - G
Fleury - G
Anderson - G

Goalies are important in our league, with 2pts for the win +3 for S/O. We also go pretty deep on defense with 6 starting spots.

I picked Neal and Benn up in last year's draft. They both had great seasons. I'd love to keep them both but I only have 7 slots. I could try to flip them both for a better keeper but I tried over the summer and there weren't any bites. If I keep both of them I'd have to drop a D&G, probably Doughty and Halak.

Any suggestions on what you'd do in this situation? I need to make some quick trades happen, but I'm not sure what to target to get the most value of out my non-keepers.

[lucifer316]

what kind of forwards do the lundqvist quick and rinne owners have

[rataylor22]

Originally Posted by echoboomer

Limited keeper, 3rd year. Points only. 11 teams.

Starting positions:
9F
6D
2G
(+4 BN, +1 IR)

Woohoo hockey! Time to make some decisions quickly before my draft next week.

Here are the highlights from my roster:
Stamkos
N. Backstrom - WA
Parise
Neal
Benn
Yandle
Doughty
Halak - G
Fleury - G
Anderson - G

Goalies are important in our league, with 2pts for the win +3 for S/O. We also go pretty deep on defense with 6 starting spots.

I picked Neal and Benn up in last year's draft. They both had great seasons. I'd love to keep them both but I only have 7 slots. I could try to flip them both for a better keeper but I tried over the summer and there weren't any bites. If I keep both of them I'd have to drop a D&G, probably Doughty and Halak.

Any suggestions on what you'd do in this situation? I need to make some quick trades happen, but I'm not sure what to target to get the most value of out my non-keepers.

To be honest I think you are overvaluing goalies. Your scoring system doesn't really add a lot of weight to them to make them hugely important. My 7 would be:

Stamkos - Stud
Backstrom - Stud, can reestablish 100 point form
Parise - Stud
Neal - Malkin will drag him into high production
Benn - Budding superstar, guy is legit
Doughty - Better team than Phoenix, Yandle got passed by OEL
Fleury - Most job security and best team.

[echoboomer]

Originally Posted by lucifer316

what kind of forwards do the lundqvist quick and rinne owners have

Quick: Tavares, Kopitar, Perry, Getz, Gaborik
Rinne: Giroux, Sharp, Hossa,
Lundy: Kessel, Lupul, Richards, Toews

Originally Posted by rataylor22

To be honest I think you are overvaluing goalies. Your scoring system doesn't really add a lot of weight to them to make them hugely important. My 7 would be:

Stamkos - Stud
Backstrom - Stud, can reestablish 100 point form
Parise - Stud
Neal - Malkin will drag him into high production
Benn - Budding superstar, guy is legit
Doughty - Better team than Phoenix, Yandle got passed by OEL
Fleury - Most job security and best team.

My only problem is I don't have a pick until the 3rd round, then not again till the 5th. Goalies will go pretty high in the draft. I like your list though, thanks.

[lucifer316]

Originally Posted by echoboomer

Quick: Tavares, Kopitar, Perry, Getz, Gaborik
Rinne: Giroux, Sharp, Hossa,
Lundy: Kessel, Lupul, Richards, Toews

quick is out then

maybe try to offer benn or neal + fleury or halak to get lundqvist or rinne

[kevinsrangers]

id also just keep one goalie here.
id try trade halak/fluery plus for a top five goalie.

[JHM]

Straight points. Those goalies are important. Goalies will probably lead your league in scoring. So, with straight points & no cap.

Project (80 games) for all the players and the points totals you think they'll get. Subtract 30 points per d-man, 40 points per winger, 45 points per centre, 70 points per goalie. The low player in a 12 team league, at each position achieves the points totals (-30, -40, -45, -70) See what each players points total are. You've now leveled the playing field, in regard to points for the coming season. This doesn't factor in age or the fact that it is harder to fill some positions than others. (Wing can be tough and so can goal).

Really, think about it, you only compete with the points totals above these minimums. All points to minimum, are achieved by every player in your league.

My projections.
Stamkos 95-45=50
N. Backstrom 80-45=35
Parise 75-40=35
Neal 80-40=40
Benn 70-40=30
Yandle 45-30=15
Doughty 45-30=15
Halak - G 80-70=10 (two tenders & St Louis can't do better than last time)
Fleury - G 100-70=30
Anderson - G 90-70=20

So, I keep
1 - Stamkos
2 - Backstrom
3 - Parise
4 - Neal
5 - Benn
6 - Fleury
7 - Anderson (or Halak) (pick your poison)

Yes, I hate sacrificing the 65 upside of Doughty. A +35 puts him with the big boys. At 45 points, I know I can find a 30 pointer (loss of 15 points overall - based on 80 games). Yandle's upper window is grossly affected by the low scoring of the Yotes. He's unlikely to get more points than the leading forward, and the leading forward may struggle to move past 55 points. Goal & Wing are tough to fill, so I wouldn't want to leave myself short. There are only about 25 viable options in the NHL.

Salary cap grossly affects the values of some of these players. Some edge up, some get crushed.

I look again, and see you have forwards, the principals remain the same. Use -43 as the base number for forwards.

[MarmotKing]

I would keep:
Stamkos
Backstrom
Parise
Neal
Doughty
Fleury

The last keeper could be either Benn or Anderson. I really don't like the halak/elliott tandem (to much uncertainty as who is the clear starter).

And the reason why nobody wanted to trade this summer was probably because of the lockout. You should try again now with the hype of a new season.

Try trading a Benn, Yandle or Halak (or any other) for a swap of draft picks. Or you could package 2 guys to get something...

[Kofax]

Originally Posted by JHM

The low player in a 12 team league, at each position achieves the points totals (-30, -40, -45, -70).

I really like the way you did this, but I think your analysis of defensemen may be off. His league is 11 teams, 6 starting D, so 66 D-men are taken. In a standard 12 team league with 4 D-men you're looking at 48, so that 30 points you list may drop to 25 or 20 increasing Doughty and Yandles value.

So if you do that all over again with the minimum points a D-man will get after the 66 starting, then you'll get a better idea on who to keep.

[JHM]

Bang on Kofax. Every league has different numbers. It's your job to know your league numbers! To do the work to know, what-is-what-is-what. After you do a study, you always become wiser! Actually, today, with the internet, you can source your basic info in a few minutes, by refering to a website and finding the NHL scoring race. Break it down by position. When I started, you had to write all the names on a sheet of paper, and crawl through the NHL.



My league is actually 48 D-men. I think the number was 32, last time I did it.