2012 Yahoo! Fantasy Football League Predictions: A Look Back at the DHFFL

[Pengwin7]

Yahoo! fantasy football leagues included a Projections tab above the standings this year.
It is a neat function that predicted the final standings & scoring of all of the league teams based on their draft.

I thought it would be a neat exercise to look back and see how accurate Yahoo! was.
Of note: The DobberHockey FFL had only two very-even trades made, so the predictions should mostly encompass a team's draft

Draft Day Projections:
#1. The Fear Boners. Predicted to go 5-8-0 with 1230pts.
Reader finshed 1st overall with a 10-3-0 record and 1340pts. He made amazing picks in the 2nd round (AJ Green), 3rd round (Trent Richardson), and a late QB steal (RGIII). Even with 1st rounder McFadden going down, he held on to his first place lead. Chicago defense was a key helper.
Yahoo Variance: 5 wins, 110pts.

#2. Megatron. Predicted to go 5-8-0 with 1142pts.
Myron finished 2nd overall with a 9-4-0 record and 1308pts. He probably deserves GM-of-the-year. Calvin Johnson fell into his lap at #6, yes... but his 2nd/3rd round picks of Adrian Peterson (RB#1) and Doug Martin (RB#2) were the best tandem of picks that anybody made in the league this year. Myron actually ended up flipping Megatron/F.Davis/P.Rivers for Newton/A.Hernandez/Garcon in a trade that worked out suprisingly well for both teams.
Yahoo Variance: 4 wins, 166pts.

#3. PPQB. Predicted to go 12-1-0 with 1330pts.
Paul finished 3rd overall with a 8-5-0 record and 1195pts. With that golden #1 overall draft spot, he was able to snag the ever-steady Arian Foster. A nice turn-around season that started 0-4! I'd bet that most teams that drafted Foster finished in the upper halves of their leagues.
Yahoo Variance: 4 Wins, 135pts.

#4. Bettman Fumbles. Predicted to go 2-11-0 with 1046pts.
ColinJ finished 4th overall and at the top of the 7-6-0 pack with 1204pts. Fueled by solid RB Lynch & Turner, steady QBs Schaub/Ryan, and Dez Bryant. His team well outperformed their Yahoo! projections more than any other club.
Yahoo Variance: 5 Wins, 158pts.

#5. The Waterboy. Predicted to go 5-8-0 with 1136pts.
BN finished 5th, starting/ending with big win streaks at 7-6-0 and 1182pts. It was actually pretty impressive management considering he got the pick-of-death this year #3... where most people took LeSean McCoy. 4 of his 7 wins were by less than 10pts and he had a solid FA add of Bryce Brown to end the season with two key wins to qualify for playoffs.
Yahoo Variance: 2 Wins, 46pts.

#6. TD's N Beer!. Predicted to go 4-9-0 with 1178pts.
ChrisP finished 6th, the final team to qualify for upper-tier playoffs at 7-6-0 with 1176pts. His 1st round pick of Tom Brady pushed him far and perhaps he was the luckiest team of the year with underperforming L-Fitz, Nicks, and Bradshaw in 2/3/4. His opponents only happened to score 1036pts... with most teams having 1100 or 1200pts against. TD's actually only had five weeks scoring above 85pts... but he won them when it mattered.
Yahoo Variance: 3 Wins, 2pts.

#7. TK's Troops. Predicted to go 11-2-0 with 1221pts.
Tyler finished 7th, on the outside looking in at 6-7-0 with 1205pts. The #2 overall draft pick auto-snagged him Ray Rice, V.Cruz, B.Marshall. With Andrew Luck being a 7th round pick, it seemed all the pieces were there for this to be a playoff team.
Yahoo Variance: 5 Wins, 16pts.

#8. The Frisky Hobbit. Predicted to go 9-4-0 with 1226pts.
The Comish, last year's champ, finished 6-7-0 with 1115pts. There was no overcoming injuries to Gronkowski (his 1st rounder) and Ryan Mathews. The Comish actually pulled out wins in Week 1 with only 78pts and in Week 9 with only 69pts... things could have been worse.
Yahoo Variance: 3 Wins, 111pts

#9. ESU Wolves. Predicted to go 7-6-0 with 1154pts.
Dustin finished 9th, finishing at 6-7-0 with 1104pts. Most of the poor performance can probably be hung on Matt Forte, who underwhelmed with only 4 TDs - losing several goal-line touches to Michael Bush.
Yahoo Variance: 1 Win, 50pts.

#10. Tremendous Kielbasas. Predicted to go 5-8-0 with 1114pts.
Will finished 10th, the last of a pack of 6-7-0 teams with 1053pts. That total qualified him as the lowest scoring team in the league. This one can be squarely hung on DeMarco Murray's injury. His 1st round pick doomed him when he went down.
Yahoo Variance: 1 win, 61pts

#11. Blitz Inc. Predicted to go 8-5-0 with 1208pts.
Hollywood finished 11th, even at 5-8-0 he totalled a solid 1256pts. The point total was 3rd best in the entire league, but just bad luck had him on the wrong side of matches against teams scoring 110pts consistently. No shame here, just bad luck coupled with an injury to MJD in Week 7.
Yahoo Variance: 3 wins, 48pts.

#12. York Dukes. Predicted to 4-9-0 with 1142pts.
Howie finished 12th, the last toilet bowl qualifier at 5-8-0 with 1119pts. The 1st round pick of Jimmy Graham was probably the most questionable and it seemed to doom him from the get go. Josh Freeman actually put up some nice numbers for his team.
Yahoo Variance: 1 win, 23pts.

#13. Beli Check Yo'Self. Predicted to go 5-8-0 with 1123pts.
Michael finished 13th, but not last! going 5-8-0 with 1065pts. A tough start from Chris Johnson was really painful and injuries & slumps for Finley, McGahee, and Titus Young didn't help any better.
Yahoo Variance: ----, 58pts.

#14. Discount Doublecheck. Predicted to go 9-4-0 with 1276pts.
Pengwin7 finished dead last, yuck, going 4-9-0 with 1123pts. The points were actually 9th in the league, but the team was too volatile. Early injury to Greg Jennings doomed the team and 1st round pick Aaron Rodgers.
Yahoo Variance: 5 wins, 143pts.


Overall, the Yahoo! Projected Standings were pretty poor.
They missed by:
5 wins - on 4 teams
4 wins - on 2 teams
3 wins - on 3 teams
2 wins - on 1 team
1 wins - on 3 teams
Exact - on 1 team

Overall... the projected standings were off by an average of 3 wins per team.
That's pretty bad.

In summary, Yahoo!s fantasy football team projections stunk.
They predicted 5 of the top 6 teams in our league to have LOSING records.
They predicted 3 of the bottom 6 teams in our league to have WINNING records.

Shame, Yahoo.... Shame, Shame.

-Pengwin7

[Axeman33]

Ya, picking 6th overall, my 2/3/4 round picks were serious letdowns. Fitzgerald killed me this year. I was expecting big numbers from him, going in the 2nd round.

I lost in the first round of the playoffs this week, but even with my under achievers, I still only lost by 4 stinkin points. Grr.