Miss hockey yet? ...me too.... wanna pass the time by auditing my keepers?

[dbrzrk]

Hey,

Im kinda bored and dying for puck to start up again. Wanna pass the time by auditing my keepers and looking at a draft strategy.

Its a limited keeper (6), 14 teams
points only(extra points for special teams), Goalie points (2 for win, 3 for SO)
no position requirments.
start 10 f, 4d, 1 goalie.

My keepers are Malkin, Parise, P Kane, Benn, Skinner and E Kane.

I won the league last year and should compete/win again.

1.What do you think about my keepers?
2.Should I go into this draft going after older established players (win now)or take a chance and try and snag a future stud ie granlund, huberdeau, etc.
3. Should I use my early picks to draft D men and Goalies, or stock up on forwards (as they are more valuable in our league) and grab "sleeper" dmen and goalies?

Thanks in advance and Rep available.

[Carcillo]

1. That's an amazing group of keepers. One of the big-3, another two young elite forwards and three of the best young potential future elite forwards. Can't get much better than that. If anything, I'd maybe look to upgrade E.Kane as I don't think his true value is in points only leagues like this one. I'd like to see a stud goalie in place of E.Kane but even just keeping him is fine as he's a stud too.

2. I wouldn't reach for someone like Granlund/Hubs in your shoes but if they fall to you, by all means grab them. With that I mean if the choice is between Granlund and some 50 point guys (Fleischmann's, Versteegs etc.), go with the potential. But don't take Granlund over St.Louis, Iggy, B.Richards etc. proven star players as you already got your young keeper studs.

3. I'd go with star goalie, forwards and D-men - in that order. Since there's no extra points for D-man scoring - I'd go with the sleeper route there. I'm sure you can find those Justin Faulk's or more established guys like Matt Carle quite late in the draft so first I'd take care of goalies and forwards.

[dbrzrk]

Thanks Carcillo, I always apreciate your advice.

[Carcillo]

Who are the best goalies available in the draft? Or are all the stud goalies kept?

[dbrzrk]

Lundquist, rinne and quick will be the only goalies kept... so there is a lot of options out there. Would you use a first rounder on a goalie or wait till the second? There seems to be a bit of a drop off after these three guys, other than fleury, but im not sure he gets the 65 starts he did in the past.

[Carcillo]

I would definitely use a 1st rounder on one of Rask, Price or Fleury and keep whomever of those you take over E.Kane. Although that could change depending on how much the extra points for special teams are worth? But those three can put together 30+ wins year after year for a long time and with the shutouts that equals 70-80 points. I don't think E.Kane will get higher than that so I'd love to own a young stud goalie like Rask or Price over him.

[dbrzrk]

Ya I have debated that strategy, but elected to go with a forward at my 6 spot instead. we get one extra point for special team points and an extra point for game winners.

The way i see it if kane gets into the 65 point range, i would assume with the extra special team and gwg points he would be around 85 fantasy points with the posibility for more.

Finding a forward like that in the draft or ww is tough, but finding an 80 point goalie is a lot easier.

[Pengwin7]

What is the scoring?
*Daily starts
*Weekly starts
*Best full-point total for the year (assumed for discussion below)


I'd look to fill your forwards first, then defensemen, with a goalie last.
My buddy does a points-only keeper (13-team, keep-8) and he won last year with my help at the draft. It was a 6F/4D/2G. We went forward heavy at the draft and it paid off. Of his three re-draft defensemen, he kept none. During the year he swapped in Michael Del Zotto, Nick Leddy, and Erik Johnson.

Points-pools are won with forwards and elite defensemen... but elite defensemen are limited to one these days: Erik Karlsson.

Last year, look at the D breakdown:
78pts: Karlsson, Erik
50-53pts: (4) players [Probably all kept in your league]
40-49pts: (14) players [Possibly kept in your league]
30-39pts: (21) players [Likely available in redraft]
25-29pts: (17) players

14 teams x 4D = 56 defensemen in play.
The above list is exactly 56 defensemen.

But there was (31) defensemen that scored 20-24pts.
So you are looking at drop-off of 6-20pts from the available defensemen (30-39pters) to this scrub group that will ALWAYS be availalbe on the waiver wire (20-24pters).

Of those guys below 24pts... guys emerge every year once the season starts.
Last year it was MDZ, Leddy, Nikitin, Gardner. If NEW defensemen raise up into the 30+ level every year... why reach to grab one in the re-draft?


Now, let's talk about forwards:
You've got 14 teams x 10F in play = 140 forwards.

Let's count them down:
90+ pts: (3) [All sure-fire keepers]
80-89pts: (6) [All sure-fire keepers]
70-79pts: (11) [All sure-fire keepers]
60-69pts: (37) [Probably the top half are keepers]
50-59pts: (38) [All likely available for redraft]
40-49pts: (43) [All likely available for redraft]

Let's stop & count... 138 players. That's pretty much your top 140F.

30-39pts: (53) [Scrub pile, all available... new guys raise into this group every year]

Again... you may have a chance to draft a low 60 to 65-ish forward in a redraft.
This represents a 21-35pt drop from the scrub pile.


Here's the comparison:
If you start with a D-man, it represents a 6 to 20pt BOOST over what's available at the very end of the draft.

If you start with a Forward, it represents a 21 to 35pt BOOST over what's available at the very end of the draft.


With 10F/4D/1G, you gotta go forward heavy to your first 8 spots. Then I'd cut and wait because you'll be able to grab two solid guys off waivers in your 9/10 spots.


My draft:
*Forward
*Forward
*D
*D or G
*D or G (whichever you didn't do previously)
*D
*F or D
*F or D


Always you are taking the best player available (BPA), but based on the roster allocation, that player should be a forward.

re: Goalies.
That depends... if this is a "daily start' league with unlimited goalie starts, I'd probably go goalie/goalie/goalie and rotate them in. If this is a "full-season points" pool... I'd draft them late, because only the top 14 goalies count and the #14 or #15 goalie won't be that far off #4, since three (Lundy/Quick/Rinne) are kept.

In a points-pool, it's very possible to win the pool with average to poor goalies. Last year, my buddy's team won with Fleury (who really didn't score a lot in W=2,SO=3 pools) and Corey friggin Crawford. So, goalies are not so important in a points-only pool where there are only 14 in play.

[dbrzrk]

wow... slow clap... clap.. clap ...

very impressive breakdown. It is a weekly start, not daily.

That was essentially the strategy I wanted to go with, but seeing your breakdown and the numbers behind it, i feel a lot more confident in that strategy.

well done sir,

>>> also i should have mentioned we have 2f , 1d and 1 goalie bench spots on the roster.