At what age do I cut bait on Crosby?

[Ed.]

For the sake of this discussion, let's pretend Crosby's concussion history isn't going to be an issue.

During the height of his concussion issues, I paid an absolute king's ransom for Crosby. I am happy with that. You don't Crosby for what he's worth. You only get him for something silly and over-the-top.

My question though, is at what age do I start thinking about moving him? Obviously he has many good years left, barring serious injury, and should still be effective a decade from now. However, elite players tend to tail off in the 30-32 range, becoming top-10 scorers, rather than top-3 scorers, as younger guys enter their prime and take the top spots.

So five years from now, assuming he's just come off a great season, do I trade Crosby for the best package I can get? I risk losing a couple of elite seasons that way, and either way I am giving up a guy who should still be good for 70-80 points until he's 35. I figure thought that I would be getting the most value, while giving up the least future production around that 30 or 31 year-old mark.

Assuming I am going to move Crosby for multiple players, prospects, picks, etc., I could theoretically trade multiple prospects at the deadline prior to the summer where I move Crosby, in order to stock up on win-now guys and dominate in the playoffs, right?

I realize it is very early to be thinking along those lines, but I would appreciate your thoughts on how you would approach this. Also, I would never dream of posting this on so widely-read a forum close to the time I was actually planning to make the move. Better to discuss it theoretically now.

[blayze]

Way too early to be having this discussion.

A million things are going to change between now and 5 years from now.

Just enjoy the ride.

[newfcollins]

You trade Crosby the second it helps you win your pool.

[Dakkster]

Originally Posted by newfcollins

You trade Crosby the second it helps you win your pool.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

[robmyatt]

You cut/trade Crosby when he's no longer keeper worthy.
In a standard 12 team, 25 player roster, keeping 10-12, it's when he is only averageing around 55points a season. I'm sure he'll retire at that point. I see him producing at keeper worthy level for another 10 years.

[kevinsrangers]

whatever year it is when you get that "crazy overpayment offer" from the other guy that just must have crosby.
thats when you make the deal.

[Pengwin7]

To answer the OP's question (and disregarding injuries), Crosby being an elite player with elite-passing/vision, you have to compare him to somewhere between Yzerman & Gretzky, IMO.

Yzerman was well-above PPG until the age of 31.
Gretzky was well-above PPG until the age of 33.
Yzerman was around PPG until the age of 37.
Gretzky was around PPG until the age of 37.


I'd bet similar for Crosby.
Crosby will probably be well-above PPG until 32.
Crosby will probably be around PPG until 37.

Just an answer with some numbers... (but OF COURSE, every player is a case-by-case basis and it's way to soon to ask this question).

[angus]

Originally Posted by Pengwin7

To answer the OP's question (and disregarding injuries), Crosby being an elite player with elite-passing/vision, you have to compare him to somewhere between Yzerman & Gretzky, IMO.

Yzerman was well-above PPG until the age of 31.
Gretzky was well-above PPG until the age of 33.
Yzerman was around PPG until the age of 37.
Gretzky was around PPG until the age of 37.


I'd bet similar for Crosby.
Crosby will probably be well-above PPG until 32.
Crosby will probably be around PPG until 37.

Just an answer with some numbers... (but OF COURSE, every player is a case-by-case basis and it's way to soon to ask this question).

Rock solid advice - and of course trade now if it helps you win.

[Ed.]

Originally Posted by Dakkster

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

But there has to be a point where his value dips, and the degree to which trading him would help me win my pool declines, right? So I want to identify that point, and strike before he gets there. Does his perceive value decline when the number at the front of his age is a 3, rather than a 2? Or does it not decline until the first season where he only manages a point per game?

Then again there are plenty of scenarios where Crosby could be the best thing for my team, even if he's no longer in his prime, so it will depend a lot upon the ages of my other core guys, and whether I am in need of a rebuild at some point.

For argument's sake though, if Crosby dodges any further concussion problems, what is the highest age he could be where you would still trade an up-and-coming star (say someone of Tyler Seguin or RNH's calibre) plus a solid mid-20s player good enough to keep in a 12-team, 12-main-team-keeper system, plus two high picks/quality prospects to acquire him?

[Ed.]

Pengwin, I appreciate the perspective, thank you. I looked at guys like Gretzky, Oates, Lemieux and Thornton, but Yzerman didn't occur to me. Definitely a good name to throw into the mix.