DobberEntry Leagues: Top100 Summary

[Pengwin7]

I really wish my post wasn't so long... because it often comes off as negative.
I really did love the list - even if I don't feel it is accurate.

A few months ago I actually created a scoring system that gave players values in each category (0-10 value, pretty much).
The Base10 number is their actual statistical score.
This list actually matches up very closely with Yahoo!s "rank" and so I feel it's quite accurate.
It is a good representation of how closely the actual players value get together as you start nearing the 40-50pt players (say the 100-150th best forwards).

[temek]

Originally Posted by Pengwin7

I really wish my post wasn't so long... because it often comes off as negative.
I really did love the list - even if I don't feel it is accurate.

A few months ago I actually created a scoring system that gave players values in each category (0-10 value, pretty much).
The Base10 number is their actual statistical score.
This list actually matches up very closely with Yahoo!s "rank" and so I feel it's quite accurate.
It is a good representation of how closely the actual players value get together as you start nearing the 40-50pt players (say the 100-150th best forwards).

I wouldn't say that your post was negative at all and just pointing out some pretty big flaws with the methodology I pretty much agree with. What I personally use for predicting league results(and drafting of course) is pretty much similar system to FHG except I am using my own projections instead and there are some slight differences in calculations.

I am quite skeptical myself about the value of these kind of rankings and I would classify them more as interesting than useful as well. It's not totally out of question they might have some predictive power though so decided to use these leagues as a test of their usefulness. Can't be certain how useful these are without testing them and could be interesting to look at after the season.

[Pengwin7]

As a thank you (temek) for your work, I've attached my absolute favourite spreadsheet that I made for the DobberEntry league. This shows the top 180F by value-scores based on the 7 categories (we include both PIM & Hits). It's really good. Each player gets a score (pretty much 0-10) based on the AVERAGE statistical count for top top 180F (since 15 teams x 12F) in each category.

For top 180F, average statistics:
Goals: 20. (0G = 0pts, 40G = 10pts, 50G = 12.5pts)
Assists: 30. (0A = 0pts, 60A = 10pts, 66A = 11pts)
+/-: +5. (-25 = 0pts, +5 = 5pts, +35 = 10pts)
PIM: 55. (0PIM = 0pts, 110 PIM = 10pts, 220 PIM = 20pts)
PPP: 13. (0PPP = 0pts, 25PPP = 10pts, 30PPP = 12pts)
SOG: 180. (0SOG = 0pts, 360 SOG = 10pts)
Hits: 100. (0 Hits = 0pts, 200 Hits = 10pts, 300 Hits = 15pts!)

Some people might think this scoring off/skewed, but there is justification in the summations at the bottom of the columns.
There is a top90 set of players, with total scores, and AVG player score per cat.
There is a 2nd90 set of players, with total scores, and AVG player score per cat.

The AVG player score for the top90 + 2nd90 should come out close to 10.0 (full score).
And if each category has the same total AVG score, THEN we know that the categories are all weighted evenly, since a 1st place in GOALS is worth the same as a 1st place in PIM.

The most notable thing I found in this spreadsheet is the key category to focus on in the first half of the draft: PPP. The top half of forwards (top90) account for 66% of PPP. (7.0/[7.0+3.6]). It's the greatest skew of stats in a draft. Anybody with experience knows, it is hard-hard-hard to find PPP at the end of a draft. Other statistics can still be found at the end of the draft... and even on the waiver wire right now. I won't get into them for fear of making my DobberEntry opponents too strong... but I do know that Ryan Ma has one of the greatest understandings of this finding. (and in truth, part of this spreadsheet was an inquiry into Ma's draft strategies, which I finally witnessed first hand in the RHRS).

Anyways, this is my favourite spreadsheet I've ever made.
Enjoy.

[Maaaasquito]

Damn all these people analyzing my draft strategy to a T... I'm not going be able to win any more leagues from now on...