Pengwin7's 2011-2012 Defensemen Rankings

[Pengwin7]

I did this last year, so thought I'd do it again.

Mathematical Model based on H2H league with 6 categories: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG
Scores are based on actual 2011-2012 NHL Statistics.

Forwards are given a score (10/10 = typical maximum**) in each category.
Scoring:
*G. 50G = 10pts. 25G = 5pts. 0G = 0pts. [AVG Top 60D = 8G... in 10-11 it was 8G]
*A. 70A = 10pts. 35A = 5pts. 0A = 0pts. [AVG Top 60D = 27A... in 10-11 it was 29A]
*+/-. +30 = 10pts. EVEN = 5pts. -30 = 0pts. [AVG Top 60D = +9... in 10-11 it was +6]
*PIM. 120PIM = 10pts. 60PIM = 5pts. 0PIM = 0pts. [AVG Top 60D = 49 PIM... in 10-11 it was 55 PIM]
*PPP. 40PPP = 10pts. 20PPP = 5pts. 0PPP = 0pts. [AVG Top 60D = 12PPP... in 10-11 it was 15PPP]
*SOG. 400SOG = 10pts. 200SOG = 5pts. 0 = 0pts. [AVG Top 60D = 150 SOG... in 10-11 it was 150 SOG]

Notes:
*Scoring is the same as forwards.
*This is important because top defensemen typically eclipse 50pts, whereas top forwards eclipse 80pts. But if a defenseman can give you the +/- or PIM (or Hits! or BkS!) of a forward, that's how you should best utilize this roster spot.
*Of note, defensemen goals & SOG were exactly same as 2010-2011. However, top defensemen provided better +/- (+9 vs. +6) with decrease production on the powerplay (12 PPP vs. 15 PPP). This may be a reflection of teams using 4 forwards on power plays, which re-allocates the value of the lower tier D (30th-60th best) to other categories like their +/-.

Several players were banged up last year, so here's where they would have finished if they had played a FULL 82games at pace with what they actually played.

6.75pts (1st) Letang, Kris (played only 51 games)
5.85pts (4th) Byfuglien, Dustin (played only 66 games)
4.76pts (17th) Giordano, Mark (played only 61 games)
4.75pts (19th) Souray, Sheldon (played only 64 games)
4.52pts (25th) Green, Mike (played only 32 games)
4.44pts (29th) Wisneiwski, James (played only 48 games)
4.26pts (36th) Enstrom, Tobias (played only 62 games)
4.17pts (39th) Ellis, Ryan (played only 32 games. *Prospect)
4.04pts (46th/47th) Ehrhoff, Myers (played only 66 & 55 games)

My past experience has shown that my rankings have been very close to Yahoo! ranks... though Yahoo! is closed and I really wished I would have compared before they closed.

Hope you enjoy.

[prkal8r]

Totally awesome... thanks!

I have just been doing a major D review for one of my leagues so this is super helpful in pairing down my keeper list based on my leagues salaries...

Considering bumping Doughty for White ($86K vs. $3K) now given how much cash it will free up for the free agent pool and the small difference it makes in past years ranking (which of course needs to overlay this years projections).

REP to you!!

[aleco83]

Good list but where is Faulk? I don't think I saw him and I saw Harrison and McBain there.

[SeaDawg]

You are such a geek, Pengwin.



But I love it! Keep up the great work.

[Pengwin7]

Good list but where is Faulk? I don't think I saw him and I saw Harrison and McBain there.

Rankings are based on last year's statistics (2011-2012).
These are not projections.

It just kind of goes to show how a player's actual performance gives him value in each of 6 standard categories.

Faulk finished at #103, based on his 22pts & 29 PIM last year. (both likely to improve by a lot)

[aleco83]

Yeah I realized that immediately and wanted to undo post lol. I see that based on your calcs he's 2.36 just missing out on the rankings but if you extrapolate that over 82 games he gets 2.94 good for 54th. You would of course have to do that for all players. I really think you should do the rankings based on 82 games as an aside so you can compare each player on the same basis.

[Pengwin7]

I really think you should do the rankings based on 82 games as an aside so you can compare each player on the same basis.

I've had this thought too... but I've found that it really skews things.

For example, Marc-Andre Bergeron's stats (only 43 games) work out to an 82-game score of 4.95.
This would tie Alex Pietrangelo as the #5 overall defenseman. And we all know that MAB couldn't hold that pace all year.

Injuries are a very real part of fantasy value.
Extrapolating each player to a full 82-game value also suggests (via myself) that some players could actually leapfrog other players.

For example, Alex Steen projects to the #6 overall forward in my per-game sort... but this is mostly due to his +24 in 43 games projecting to +48 for 82-games.
And was it just a great half-season for Steen?
Lots of players have good half-seasons.
Probably one of the biggest mistakes people make is looking at a small sample size of games (10games, 20games, etc.) and extrapolating it to a full season.
I could probably tweak Steen's +/- and hold it steady at +24... or just inch it slightly... but once I start tweaking one player, I have to consider doing that for all other players.

The "tweaking" is not a path I want to start down!
So it's easier to just present raw numbers... and let others interpret them as they see fit.

[tgraveline]

I really enjoyed these lists as they put a lot of things into perspective. Love it.

[toddmackay]

Why not have both numbers? Actual and Based on 82GP? Perhaps atleast include the # of GP? Definitely going to use this material going into drafts this year!

Really enjoy your comments on the ramblings and great analysis!

[ross10019]

Pengwin, this is awesome. Just one thought though, would it be difficult to do a version that excludes PIMs? Nowadays there are fewer and fewer leagues taht include PIMs (which, incidentally, is a category that I have always really hated).

[SharkMeat]

Ok do I keep Coburn or let Faulk join the majors from his prospects spot???? Faulk could still be a prospect for me ...one more year....h2h with normal points...but this list is great...Mike