Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

[Pengwin7]

bo-dog has released their player Over/Unders.
http://sports.bodog.eu/sports-bettin...ayer-props.jsp
They are very, very, very good... I struggled with identifying my picks.

Here are my 12 best over/under picks on point totals for 2011-2012.
I did very well at this last year (like 10-2), so thought I'd try again.

(For the record, I don't actually bet money... I like hard-earned $$$, but I do feel it is worth "being-on-the-record" with a few predictions!)

Pick #1: Brad Boyes, 57.5pts. UNDER.
This is my big money pick. No chance, not in Buffalo, no chance.

Pick #2: Zach Parise, 77.5pts. UNDER.
With a Zajac injured & a dismal supporting cast, I'd be very surprised.

Pick #3: Steven Stamkos, 95.5pts. UNDER.
Great player, but I just think that total is too high.

Pick #4: Andrew Ladd, 56.5pts. UNDER.
I think he was energized as a new player in a new place last year trying to prove himself. I think the hype will wear off quickly this year.

Pick #5: Alexander Ovechkin, 98.5pts. UNDER.
Especially if he doesn't line up with Backstrom. I think WAS will win games just because of Vokoun & their defense. This will make BB look good and he'll leave his crappy offensive lines in place.

Pick #6: Jarome Iginla, 80.5pts. UNDER.
One of my five favourite players... but gosh, Calgary's offensive support group just isn't that good. And with Backlund out & Moss pushed to center, I'll jump on this.

Pick #7: Taylor Hall, 55.5pts. OVER.
I wouldn't be part of DobberNation if I wasn't invested in this pick, eh?!

Pick #8: Keith Yandle, 55.5pts. UNDER.
Phoenix is worse without Bryz. Yandle has a nice big-money contract.
Motivation = gone.

Pick #9: Dustin Byfuglien, 47.5pts. UNDER.
Just. Not. This. Good.

Pick #10: Brad Richards, 77.5pts. UNDER.
The most curious thing is Gaborik at 61.5pts. How will Gaborik only get 61.5pts and B-Rich be at 77pts? Nah. 73 & 70 are good landing spots.


***OK, OK, enough with the UNDERS, right***
(Here's the thing though, Vegas knows people like the OVERS... because betters are "optimists", and think things will go "right"! Aha!)


Pick #11: Jordan Staal, 48.5pts. OVER
An underrated player. If he stays healthy & plays 70+games, 55-60pts.

Pick #12: Patrik Berglund, 50.5pts. OVER
Going with DobberNation again. Him & Hall should be locks based on hype they get.


I'm aiming for a 9-3 or better finish.

[Killer67]

I'll just copy yours and add my thoughts.

Pick #1: Brad Boyes, 57.5pts. UNDER.
I am actually putting money on this one, lol, 57...

Pick #2: Zach Parise, 77.5pts. OVER.
I think he's healthy and will be playing on the PP with another deadly player.

Pick #3: Steven Stamkos, 95.5pts. UNDER.
Tough Call but 100 points is so hard to hit in today's NHL.

Pick #4: Andrew Ladd, 56.5pts. UNDER.
I just don't see Winnipeg being an offensive force.

Pick #5: Alexander Ovechkin, 98.5pts. OVER.
I can't bet against Ovie, he's got a lot prove after last season's stinker.

Pick #6: Jarome Iginla, 80.5pts. UNDER.
I think we're looking at closer to 75 this year.

Pick #7: Taylor Hall, 55.5pts. UNDER.
He'll find a way to not hit this total, whether it be injury or slumping.

Pick #8: Keith Yandle, 55.5pts. OVER.
I like Yandle for 58-60 this year. He is the PHX offense.

Pick #9: Dustin Byfuglien, 47.5pts. OVER.
I'm not worried about his weight, other teams should be though

Pick #10: Brad Richards, 77.5pts. UNDER.
Gaborik will miss too many games for Richards to get this high.

Pick #11: Jordan Staal, 48.5pts. OVER
Malkin stays healthy, Staal breaks 60.

Pick #12: Patrik Berglund, 50.5pts. OVER
Personal vote as an owner in multiple leagues...

[lektrix]

I think they had Malkin for Art Ross at 25:1 odds....crazy

[BrianSTC]

Originally Posted by Pengwin7

Pick #4: Andrew Ladd, 56.5pts. UNDER.
I think he was energized as a new player in a new place last year trying to prove himself. I think the hype will wear off quickly this year.

Ladd will get between 60-70 points this year (assuming he is injury free). The Winnipeg crowd is gonna push these guys to play over their head this season. Mark It!

[garethbush]

I don't know how people have the patience to make these bets. I don't want to wait 8 months to see if I'm getting my money back or not.

However I did just put $2 each on Malkin winning the Art Ross, Stamkos winning the Rocket Richard and Landeskog winning the Calder. The payout is good for those.

[Riverboat Danglers]

I will do the same, it will be interesting to come back to this after the season

Pick #1: Brad Boyes, 57.5pts. UNDER.
No way he clears this

Pick #2: Zach Parise, 77.5pts. OVER.
He should get back to where he was or at least just under

Pick #3: Steven Stamkos, 95.5pts. UNDER.
He is still a bit to young IMO

Pick #4: Andrew Ladd, 56.5pts. OVER.
There is nobody in WPG so somebody has to score.

Pick #5: Alexander Ovechkin, 98.5pts. OVER.
I think he will be one of the few this year to break 100

Pick #6: Jarome Iginla, 80.5pts. UNDER.
The flames will be the biggest surpise basement team this year, or at least in calgary.

Pick #7: Taylor Hall, 55.5pts. OVER
I think he should get around 60 this year. The kid is just too good

Pick #8: Keith Yandle, 55.5pts. Under.
I think he just slightly misses this one. I feel like PHX is gonna compete for yakupov and be the lowest scoring team

Pick #9: Dustin Byfuglien, 47.5pts. UNDER.
I see a lot more teams focusing on him this year and giving him less space

Pick #10: Brad Richards, 77.5pts. OVER.
NYR has enough weapons to help give richards more than enough assists

Pick #11: Jordan Staal, 48.5pts. OVER
I see malkin and crosby both missing time this year which bumps staal up to the first.

Pick #12: Patrik Berglund, 50.5pts. OVER
This is one i think i would put money on, i see him closer to 60

[Pengwin7]

Originally Posted by Pengwin7

bo-dog has released their player Over/Unders.
http://sports.bodog.eu/sports-bettin...ayer-props.jsp
They are very, very, very good... I struggled with identifying my picks.

Here are my 12 best over/under picks on point totals for 2011-2012.

Pick #1: Brad Boyes, 57.5pts. UNDER.
Boyes, 8pts in 21 games. PACE = 32pts. And injured.
Outlook: Going to nail this one!

Pick #2: Zach Parise, 77.5pts. UNDER.
Parise, 11pts in 21 games. PACE = 44pts. And struggling.
Outlook: Yeah baby! Very little chance he puts up 66pts in his next 60games.

Pick #3: Steven Stamkos, 95.5pts. UNDER.
Stamkos, 21pts in 21 games. PACE = 82pts. 4pts in his last two though.
Outlook: Jury is out, Stamkos can explode, but right now, looking good.

Pick #4: Andrew Ladd, 56.5pts. UNDER.
Ladd, 12pts in 21games. PACE = 48pts. Currently at 13pts in 24g.
Outlook: Ladd putting up 44pts in next 58games unlikely. Nice.

Pick #5: Alexander Ovechkin, 98.5pts. UNDER.
Ovechkin, 17pts in 21games. PACE = 68pts.
Outlook: OV needs 81pts in 59games. 112pts pace to get to 99pts, no way!

Pick #6: Jarome Iginla, 80.5pts. UNDER.
Iginla, 10pts in 21games. PACE = 40pts.
Outlook: Iginla would need 70pts in his next 60games to hit 81. Fuh-get it!

Pick #7: Taylor Hall, 55.5pts. OVER.
Hall, 18pts in 21games. PACE = 72pts.
Outlook: Was looking good, until the injury... ugh, we'll see.

Pick #8: Keith Yandle, 55.5pts. UNDER.
Yandle, 13pts in 21games. PACE = 52pts.
Outlook: Yandle had 2pts in his 22nd game and is over-pace, uh-oh!

Pick #9: Dustin Byfuglien, 47.5pts. UNDER.
Buff, 14pts in 21games. PACE = 56pts... and 3pts in next three.
Outlook: Buff is out to prove me wrong and doing it without Enstrom!

Pick #10: Brad Richards, 77.5pts. UNDER.
B-Rich, 19pts in 21games. PACE = 76pts.
Outlook: This one should be very close!

Pick #11: Jordan Staal, 48.5pts. OVER
J-Staal, 17pts in 21games. Healthy PACE = 68pts.
Outlook: Deceptively looking good, Staal missed a few games.

Pick #12: Patrik Berglund, 50.5pts. OVER
Berglund, 7pts in 21games. PACE = 28pts.
Outlook: YUCK. Apparently those guys at Bo-Dog knew him better than DobberNation.

I'm aiming for a 9-3 or better finish.

I thought I'd check everybody's Pace at Game #21 (the 1/4 point of the NHL season).

Everything looking pretty good at this point.
I'm looking great on six: Boyes (my lock!), Parise, Ladd, OV, Iginla, J-Staal
I'm missing on two: Buff & Berglund.
And with lots of season left, there are four that could go either way.

So far, I'm very proud.
And yes... I revived this thread to pat myself on the back.

Smug Pengwin

[Pengwin7]

Here are my 12 best over/under picks on point totals for 2011-2012.
MIDSEASON UPDATE

Pick #1: Brad Boyes, 57.5pts. UNDER.
1/4 mark: Boyes, 8pts in 21 games. PACE = 32pts. And injured.
Mid-Season: Boyes, 10pts, in 29 games. PACE = 20pts.
OUTLOOK: Already, my "LOCK" is confirmed. NO way Boyes puts up 48pts in 2nd half!!!

Pick #2: Zach Parise, 77.5pts. UNDER.
1/4 mark: Parise, 11pts in 21 games. PACE = 44pts. And struggling.
Mid-Season: Parise, 38pts in 43 games. PACE = 76pts. And ON FIRE!
OUTLOOK: He'll need 40pts in 39 games... it's possible. Uh oh.

Pick #3: Steven Stamkos, 95.5pts. UNDER.
1/4 mark: Stamkos, 21pts in 21 games. PACE = 82pts. 4pts in his last two though.
Mid-Season: Stamkos, 47pts in 41 games. PACE = 94pts.
OUTLOOK: This will be a nail-biter. He's been red hot lately.

Pick #4: Andrew Ladd, 56.5pts. UNDER.
1/4 mark: Ladd, 12pts in 21games. PACE = 48pts. Currently at 13pts in 24g.
Mid-Seaon: Ladd, 20pts in 42 games. PACE = 40pts.
OUTLOOK: Ladd would need 37pts in 40 games. Practically a PPG, forget it. Check!

Pick #5: Alexander Ovechkin, 98.5pts. UNDER.
1/4 mark: Ovechkin, 17pts in 21games. PACE = 68pts.
Mid-Season: Ovechkin, 33pts in 41games. PACE = 66pts.
OUTLOOK: He'd need 56pts in 2nd half to hit this mark. Forget it! Another check!

Pick #6: Jarome Iginla, 80.5pts. UNDER.
1/4 mark: Iginla, 10pts in 21games. PACE = 40pts.
Mid-Season: Iginla, 36pts in 44games. PACE = 72pts.
OUTLOOK: Very good. He'll need 45pts in his last 38games to hit 81. Over a PPG, no way!

Pick #7: Taylor Hall, 55.5pts. OVER.
1/4 mark: Hall, 18pts in 21games. PACE = 72pts.
Mid-Season: Hall, 30pts in 34games. PACE = 60pts+.
OUTLOOK: He may slow down with RNH out, but if he stays healthy... this OVER should be good to go.

Pick #8: Keith Yandle, 55.5pts. UNDER.
1/4 mark: Yandle, 13pts in 21games. PACE = 52pts.
Mid-Season: Yandle, 25pts in 43games. PACE = 50pts.
OUTLOOK: Yandle has gone cold lately. Needing 31pts in 39games exceeds his 59pt pace last year. Looking good!

Pick #9: Dustin Byfuglien, 47.5pts. UNDER.
1/4 mark: Buff, 14pts in 21games. PACE = 56pts... and 3pts in next three.
Mid-Season: Buff, 24pts in 35games. PACE = 48pts? (currently injured)
OUTLOOK: Ah, nothing like a LBI to make an "UNDER" prediction feel better!

Pick #10: Brad Richards, 77.5pts. UNDER.
1/4 mark: B-Rich, 19pts in 21games. PACE = 76pts.
Mid-Season: B-Rich, 31pts in 40games. PACE = 62pts.
OUTLOOK: Brad Richards has hit a wall too... and NYR continues to win. Very little chance he puts up 47pts in the next 42games. Check this one!

Pick #11: Jordan Staal, 48.5pts. OVER
1/4 mark: J-Staal, 17pts in 21games. Healthy PACE = 68pts.
Mid-Season: J-Staal, 21pts in 34games. PACE = ???
OUTLOOK: Ah, this is why betters should avoid the "OVER"... injuries... Staal would have to put up 28pts in the 2nd half to hit 49pts. I think this one will be a miss unless Staal comes back early and catches fire. Ugh.

Pick #12: Patrik Berglund, 50.5pts. OVER
1/4 mark: Berglund, 7pts in 21games. PACE = 28pts.
Mid-Season: Berglund, 18pts in 42games. PACE = 36pts.
OUTLOOK: Berglund has picked it up significantly, but realistically... he won't get 33pts in 40games. This will be a miss. Note to self: OVERs stink.

[BigDaddySmooth]

Did you parlay any of these? Can you post the lines? Curious to see what these are paying

[Shao]

Well done.

Definitely could have won money.