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Thread: Mike Green's "defensive" play...

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    Thumbs down Mike Green's "defensive" play...

    On the Tavares game-winning goal tonight - wow, I don't know if I've ever seen a more clueless play. What the hell was that? His team mates must have been groaning and rolling their eyes...8 points in 20 games, somehow a plus player. Over the past 3 seasons - 101 GP, 39 points. Obviously hurt a lot but still...

    I've never been that high on Green and I'm not a big Caps fan, but it must be tough to see those numbers combined with watching stuff like that play. Ouch.

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    Doesn't this guy make 7 mill a year? Just one more example of why these exorbitant long term contracts are ridiculous.
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    That was a brutal turnover... I was actually embarrassed for him when I saw the highlight on tv

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    Quote Originally Posted by baumer View Post
    Doesn't this guy make 7 mill a year? Just one more example of why these exorbitant long term contracts are ridiculous.
    ONLY two more years left on his contract. It's not so bad
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    Quote Originally Posted by PrairieDog View Post
    On the Tavares game-winning goal tonight - wow, I don't know if I've ever seen a more clueless play. What the hell was that? His team mates must have been groaning and rolling their eyes...8 points in 20 games, somehow a plus player. Over the past 3 seasons - 101 GP, 39 points. Obviously hurt a lot but still...

    I've never been that high on Green and I'm not a big Caps fan, but it must be tough to see those numbers combined with watching stuff like that play. Ouch.

    The next Marc Andre-Bergeron?
    hahaha wasnt that something..failed the spin move, bobbled the puck, tried to kick at it with both feet (almost looked like at the same time) and turns it over for a goal...ooof, what a waste.
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    Just for the record, having a positive plus-minus has nothing to do with being a good defensive player.


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    It was a bad turnover... though we tend to put Mike Green under a microscope.
    I think he needs to get out of Washington.
    He probably hears every day how he's not contributing (offensively) the way he used to contribute.

    As an offensive defenseman myself (growing up & still now), I know that you look very good when things go well and very bad when things go bad. Nature of the role. (And FTR, +/- is the most important statistic in the game. I've yet to have somebody make an argument for another statistic being more important. Score more goals than your opponent = win. +/-)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    (And FTR, +/- is the most important statistic in the game. I've yet to have somebody make an argument for another statistic being more important. Score more goals than your opponent = win. +/-)
    Yes, but it is a measure of overall play, not defensive play only. There is a reason Ovechkin was +45 and not nominated for the Selke.


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    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    Yes, but it is a measure of overall play, not defensive play only. There is a reason Ovechkin was +45 and not nominated for the Selke.
    Your statement said that +/- has nothing to do with being a defensive player. In many cases, that is incorrect.
    Nick Lidstrom & Bobby Orr are among the NHL's all-time +/- leaders. In fact, if you go look at the top +/- players in NHL history, you'll see some very good players.

    You know what they say.

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    +/- is like all stats: USELESS without context.

    Believe your eyes, not the stats.

    John Tavares has worked hard to become a conssitently solid, above average defensively responsible player, yet his +/- is attrocious. The reason is that he plays with two of the softest, laziest and least defensively commited wingers in the league. Context is everything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 27Blue View Post
    +/- is like all stats: USELESS without context.

    Believe your eyes, not the stats.

    John Tavares has worked hard to become a conssitently solid, above average defensively responsible player, yet his +/- is attrocious. The reason is that he plays with two of the softest, laziest and least defensively commited wingers in the league. Context is everything.

    Yes... every statistic needs context.
    There is no debating that.

    But the truth is that we all only have time to watch maybe 100 NHL hockey games each a year. (And I'd even bet that only 10% of DobberNation can honestly say they hit that number). That works out to 200 team NHL games per year. With 30 teams, that means that we might each watch an NHL player play 7 times in a season. That's all.

    However, we might check all 82 games of box scores for a player.

    +/- is a very good statistic.

    The best function of +/- is to relatively measure a player against his teammates. If you are playing against the same opponents and in front of the same goalie & defensemen (or forwards), then you can make a relative comparison about the game.


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    John Tavares has worked hard to become a conssitently solid, above average defensively responsible player, yet his +/- is attrocious. The reason is that he plays with two of the softest, laziest and least defensively commited wingers in the league. Context is everything.

    No. Incorrect.
    +/- is made up of a line's offensive contributions compared to their defensive lapses. 90% of a team's defense comes from their Goalie/Defensemen/Center. The two defensemen and the center are in charge of marking the three opposing forwards. A team's wingers have the absolute least impact on the defensive component of +/-. So, saying that Tavares' poor +/- is a result of his wingers being soft & lazy... is... well, inaccurate and of poor evaluation.

    You can blame Tavares, you can blame the Isles (porous) defense, you can even blame Nabokov. But blaming the wingers... pssh... I'd say this comment puts your understanding of +/- in the bottom tier of hockey analytical minds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post

    No. Incorrect.
    +/- is made up of a line's offensive contributions compared to their defensive lapses. 90% of a team's defense comes from their Goalie/Defensemen/Center. The two defensemen and the center are in charge of marking the three opposing forwards. A team's wingers have the absolute least impact on the defensive component of +/-. So, saying that Tavares' poor +/- is a result of his wingers being soft & lazy... is... well, inaccurate and of poor evaluation.

    You can blame Tavares, you can blame the Isles (porous) defense, you can even blame Nabokov. But blaming the wingers... pssh... I'd say this comment puts your understanding of +/- in the bottom tier of hockey analytical minds.
    if you really believe this, which i guess you do.. it explains a lot. i think you should find a math forum somewhere and leave the hockey talk to people who actually understand the game.

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    I'll chime in on the plus/minus debate.

    Absolutely the worst INDIVIDUAL stat that is used in my opinion. So let me get this straight, if my super awesome rookie defenseman coughs up a pass right to the opposing forechecker or simply trips over his own feet and loses the puck and the opposition scores, ALL the guys on the ice at the time (at even-strength/man advantage) get a MINUS??

    Or you keep making passes to the opposition and your goalie bails you out several times, so that makes you less of a liability? No way.

    Multiply that by several dozen games and now most of your team is in the negative. It means EVERYTHING as a TEAM, but individually, a horrible, horrible stat.

    My favourite stat line is from a period of years from Chris Pronger: -18, +15, +47, +3, +52, +21, +23, -2, -1, +2, +27, -1

    Even the great Lidstrom's last 3 years: +22, -2, +21

    Team, team, team. Now you could make a case for their respective plus/minus rating in relation to THEIR own team, but it doesn't factor in difficulty of opposition either. Some guys have to cover the other teams top players, while others get easier opponents.

    All that to say that it's a sucky stat.

    Maybe we should assign face-off wins to the team as well because often the wingers are key in determining possession, which I believe is how a face-off win is determined.
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    oooh... +/- debates!

    I kind of view +/- as a sort of like comparing car fuel efficiency purely based on how many miles you get per tank of gas... it doesn't factor in a lot of relevant information (tank size, car weight, speed, etc) so it doesn't provide a great method for comparison. That said, players don't go their whole careers being either first or last in their team's +/- chart by chance.

    Interesting fact about the Lidstrom numbers cited earlier. The year he was +22 the Wings outscored opponents by 13... the year he was -2 the Wings outscored opponents by 20... so not exactly a mirror of his team's performance.

    There are far better stats out their, they just aren't common place in pools yet. +/- per 60 min 5v5 is more revealing, though more involved. The problem is a lot of the stats common for pools carried over from pre-internet days where simple metrics were all that was available. As any fan of sports will acknowledge, the rules and habits that get ingrained aren't always the ideal but there is great appeal in familiarity... anyway, making people agree to change can be a pain.

    Just out of curiousity, do we consider a second assist given to a defenceman who ices the puck only to have a forward beat it out and create a goal to be a vastly more worthwhile stat?

    Ah well, to surmise: +/- isn't good (but isn't completely without merit) and it likely isn't going anywhere.
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    Plus/Minus is like the Wins stat in baseball. It's not completely irrelevant and you won't produce good numbers unless you are doing something right but the fact that you can be really good and still suffer by these stats makes them incomplete because they are far too team dependent.
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