THE WHL
The table above simply lays out some average statistics that will be used for comparison throughout this article; GFA stands for Goals For (Average) and GFA/G stands for Goals For (Average) per game. The above totals are the averages for the WHL.
RYAN MURRAY
Murray is an excellent skater who excels at nearly every aspect of the game. His offensive game is often criticized due to his “average” totals this year and during his draft year but many fail to realize that the Everett Silvertips are a poor team that has not only had a terrible goal differential the past two seasons, but has also been well below league average in scoring. Many also say he lacks the flashiness that many offensive players possess but he simply does everything so effortlessly, which in combination with his skating, draws comparisons to former NHL-star Scott Niedermayer. Ryan Murray boasts an impressive World Juniors resume and also saw some action with Canada’s World Championships team this year; he is considered one of, if not the safest pick in this draft.
As you can see from the above chart, adjusting his stats for league averages causes a drastic change in his point totals; for this reason, I think Murray’s offensive game is severely underrated and that he is in fact one of the better fantasy defencemen in this year’s draft class. However, due to the weakness of his team, he also likely contributed to more goals than he would on a deeper team, and therefore his % Scoring is likely somewhat inflated.
NHL Comparison(s): Scott Niedermayer-lite and Jay Bouwmeester. No, I don’t think he’ll have a career anywhere near Niedermayer’s; however, stylistically the two are fairly similar. When adjusting for point totals, Murray’s WHL numbers are fairly similar to Bouwmeester’s (J-Bo put up 0.92 in his pre-draft year and 1.0 in his draft year as compared to Murray’s 0.93 and 0.89) and like Bouwmeester, Murray will likely immediately make the jump to the NHL. Both are tremendous skaters and have a great deal of poise with the puck.
Long-term Upside: #1 D-man, PP QB, and PK presence. 12-33-45.
MATT DUMBA
Explosive is the word most often used to describe Dumba; he can rush the puck, dish out highlight-reel hits, and has a fantastic shot as evidenced by his goal totals (15 in 2010-11, 20 in 2011-12, and 5 in just 7 games at the WJC18’s). He is incredibly entertaining to watch; however, many feel that he makes too many risky plays (such as going for the big hit rather than the safe play), lacks hockey sense, and at 6’ and 166 pounds, does not have adequate size to play his game at an NHL-level.
Looking at the above table, Dumba took a huge step forward in the 2011-12 season. The Rebels were a significantly worse team than they were in 2010-11 (anyone else think they missed the Nuge?) and therefore Dumba’s offensive numbers are very impressive. However, like I mentioned with Murray, his % Scoring is obscenely high for a defenceman and could possibly be attributed to the lack of depth the Rebels had this year.
NHL Comparison(s): Dion Phaneuf and P.K. Subban. Phaneuf is a popular comparable for a number of reasons – a top 10 pick (as Dumba is expected to be) from the Red Deer Rebels (same team as Dumba) who had a big shot and the ability to deliver bone crunching hits. However, where the two differentiate is in size and scoring – Phaneuf was larger at the same age but also did not achieve Dumba-like numbers until his third season in the WHL (post-draft year). Personally, I like the Subban comparison for a number of reasons. Firstly, both measure in at 6’ tall and both needed to bulk up. Secondly, their numbers are strikingly similar – while Dumba outperformed Subban in his pre-draft year, they both vastly improved their stats going into the following season and both posted near identical point per game and PIM numbers (Dumba had 0.83 and 67 PIM while Subban had 0.82 and 89 PIM).
Long-term Upside: #2 D-man, PP QB. 17-33-50.
MORGAN RIELLY
Rielly is arguably the best pure puck mover in this year’s draft class, and as such may have the highest upside of any 2012-eligible defenceman; Rielly is also one of the better skating defenceman in this draft class, arguably behind only Murray.
However, there are still question marks about his game, largely due to the very limited sample of 18 games in his draft year as he missed the majority of the season with a knee injury.
Looking above, Reilly had the highest Pts/G of any draft-eligible defenceman; however, an 18 game sample is too small to make any certain judgments. Like both Dumba and Murray, his % Scoring is very high; however, unlike Dumba and Murray, he plays for a slightly above average team. As a result of this, scoring is like spread around more and thus the number seems more realistic to me; however, again, it is based on a mere 18 game sample.
NHL Comparison(s): Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson. What do these players have in common with Rielly? All of them are great skaters who can use their speed to make plays while also having the ability to make clean, crisp passes. Furthermore, none of these players maintain a booming shot but all have a deceptively good shot.
Long-term Upside: #3 D-man, PP QB. 10-45-55.
Continued on next post...