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Thread: kessel - point prediction this year

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by jhonny View Post
    I didn't think it would get all the attention... I will back off the Leaf player threads moving forward; however, my bong ammo will be of no desire when Kessel is a 30 year old just coming off his career best 84 point season. I am shocked to see the strong type casting for a kid that hasn't burned off his baby fat yet. Though I agree my predictions are bold and obviously against the grain. And when we talk upside, what is the percentage of folks that actually hit it? To say 70 is his upside is low... to say 90 is high... so no one out there thinks Kessel will ever hit 80. OK... I just disagree.
    no dude, by all means share your thoughts, I just wanted a pull off that wacky tabacky you were smoking

    Kessel is entering his 6th season, usually by the time a player gets to that point in their career you have a pretty good indication of what kind of numbers they're gonna put up. If you see a guy steadily increasing his numbers year after year then there is cause for optimism but if he keeps hitting the same range then that's probably the kind of player he's going to be. He 'could' score 80-90 pts some season if he had the perfect combination (i.e. a stud playmaking center, a solid top 3 lines to take the heat off him and allow favorable matchups, etc etc) but barring some extraordinary circumstances I don't see it happening

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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    no dude, by all means share your thoughts, I just wanted a pull off that wacky tabacky you were smoking

    Kessel is entering his 6th season, usually by the time a player gets to that point in their career you have a pretty good indication of what kind of numbers they're gonna put up. If you see a guy steadily increasing his numbers year after year then there is cause for optimism but if he keeps hitting the same range then that's probably the kind of player he's going to be. He 'could' score 80-90 pts some season if he had the perfect combination (i.e. a stud playmaking center, a solid top 3 lines to take the heat off him and allow favorable matchups, etc etc) but barring some extraordinary circumstances I don't see it happening
    I agree with your thoughts.............somewhat.

    In your 6th year you should be putting up better stats than in your 2nd or 3rd year.
    BUT
    I think the situation is a little bit different than in most cases.

    1. Not too many players are in their 6th season at age 24.

    2. Secondly, the last two years he probably would have improved if he had been playing with the same talent that he had been in Boston. Their centers would have been (Savard, Krejci, Bergeron and Seguin). On the Leafs he got Bozak. Big difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Princeton View Post
    I agree with your thoughts.............somewhat.

    In your 6th year you should be putting up better stats than in your 2nd or 3rd year.
    BUT
    I think the situation is a little bit different than in most cases.

    1. Not too many players are in their 6th season at age 24.

    2. Secondly, the last two years he probably would have improved if he had been playing with the same talent that he had been in Boston. Their centers would have been (Savard, Krejci, Bergeron and Seguin). On the Leafs he got Bozak. Big difference.
    And Stajan that first year.......... OH MY GAWWWWWWWD!

    Kessel is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma... No wait, actually he isn't at all. He's a sniper that will score more goals than assists but could POTENTIALLY equal his goal and assist outputs.

    So, let's say his peak is about 40 goals, which we can all agree on, he can potentially put up 40 assists, bringing his total to 80 and about a PPG. This, as previously mentioned, is if all goes right.

    Realistically, he's a 65-70 player that is goal heavier. That's my opinion that's unbiased as clearly I'm not a Leaf fan :P.
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  4. #34
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    I really can't wait for the season to start... but we sure do have some fun in the Summer on Dobber...

    Hey Mcgoo, unfortunately I had the misfortune of drinking bongwater the morning after my mom's 21st birthday party when I was 4... I have never hit one in my life, nor can I get within 10 feet of one because of that. Maybe it was that very incident that has caused me to think I will see the day that Kessel hits 80+...
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    Quote Originally Posted by jhonny View Post
    I really can't wait for the season to start... but we sure do have some fun in the Summer on Dobber...

    Hey Mcgoo, unfortunately I had the misfortune of drinking bongwater the morning after my mom's 21st birthday party when I was 4... I have never hit one in my life, nor can I get within 10 feet of one because of that. Maybe it was that very incident that has caused me to think I will see the day that Kessel hits 80+...
    lol I kept reading your story, wondering where this was going... thanks for the laugh

    PS: Kessel hits 70pts max while in Toronto (until he gets an elite center, don't expect him to break 70)
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    Default Kessel Bump

    Had to bump this after reading some prediction threads lately... not sure if my fantasy hockey boredom can reach another level - season better not get cancelled.

    Kessel pulled off a ppg season earlier than I thought... and without that stud playmaking center he sorely needs. And his assists outnumbered his goals!

    I wonder what might come should JVR breakout as a pivot.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jhonny View Post
    Had to bump this after reading some prediction threads lately... not sure if my fantasy hockey boredom can reach another level - season better not get cancelled.

    Kessel pulled off a ppg season earlier than I thought... and without that stud playmaking center he sorely needs. And his assists outnumbered his goals!

    I wonder what might come should JVR breakout as a pivot.

    Have to rep you for that, as I ended up drafting him


    Kessel stepped up, no doubt. Lupul was also a big part of his success.

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    You bet that I a bought into Kessel, for all the right reasons. I did not trade for him because I thought he would blow past 80 points every year on his own. I try to read into the whole team trend that goes with the package, and it comes down to Burke. Kessel was his starting move and it is a long game. Every team wants a guy that puts away 70-80 points every year. Burke is greedy and he wants a few more of them studs, like every team. For the sake of Leaf fans and to the benefit of Kessel, I hope Burke is right, and he seems to know a little bit about hockey. I know, we are talking about the Leafs. That is the team that Kessel plays for, and considering the odds he is doing mighty fine. Not much of a fantasy gamble, just don't overpay.

    At 25, Kessel should be part and parcel of any upcoming playoff run by the Leafs and am thinking Burke will want that sooner than later. The questions become, how many studs does Kessel need to have around him before he breaks PPG, and how long will it take Burke to get there?

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    *bump*

    Now that we know we have a season and we know how long it will be, what do you guys think Kessel can do?

    I'm totally on the fence with him because in my league I almost have to keep a second goaltender (Halak) due to their scarcity, but I'm having a really hard time tossing Kessel back into the draft. It's possible I'll be able to pick him out again, but I have my doubts.

    Thoughts? Think he can match or improve on last season's pace?

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    Quote Originally Posted by kbro View Post
    *bump*

    Now that we know we have a season and we know how long it will be, what do you guys think Kessel can do?

    I'm totally on the fence with him because in my league I almost have to keep a second goaltender (Halak) due to their scarcity, but I'm having a really hard time tossing Kessel back into the draft. It's possible I'll be able to pick him out again, but I have my doubts.

    Thoughts? Think he can match or improve on last season's pace?
    I'd keep Kessel over Halak. Kessel is a streaky player in a short season it can prove to be good or bad, but I'll roll the die on good with Kessel. If Kessel is hot from the get go a PPG pace is what I would expect with the potential to go above a PPG in a short season. Should be amongst the most productive forwards this coming season.

    In a 12 team league there should still be some goalie options to explore. Halak I like less them usual in a short season, as his value takes a hit with a very servicable Brian Elliott. In a short season a work horse goalie has even more value than a full season, and Halak as good as he is, won't be that big work horse this coming season.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Essej View Post
    I'd keep Kessel over Halak. Kessel is a streaky player in a short season it can prove to be good or bad, but I'll roll the die on good with Kessel. If Kessel is hot from the get go a PPG pace is what I would expect with the potential to go above a PPG in a short season. Should be amongst the most productive forwards this coming season.

    In a 12 team league there should still be some goalie options to explore. Halak I like less them usual in a short season, as his value takes a hit with a very servicable Brian Elliott. In a short season a work horse goalie has even more value than a full season, and Halak as good as he is, won't be that big work horse this coming season.
    The problem is every GM in our league keeps 2 goalies, then most of the decent scraps get scooped up in the first round, which I draft very late in.

    Not sure I agree with your assessment of how "work horse goalies will be used this season". With so many games crammed into such a short period of time, I think teams will be forced to split time more, and that's exactly what St. Louis does already. I think he will get 60% of St. Louis' games, or more. Not worse than last season.

    Teams that typically roll with their #1 much more will have to play their backups more because there will be so many more back-to back games, and games otherwise very close together that leave little time for starters to rest/mend little nagging things. Especially teams that can trust their #2 to play well. I think Biron will get a higher percentage of starts for the Rangers. Bernier for the Kings. Hedberg for the Devils. Enroth for the Sabres. Vokoun with the Penguins. Florida will probably rotate like St. Louis. Tampa, Ottawa, Washington, Chicago, Dallas, Edmonton, Minnesota, San Jose - all have solid backups.

    You're probably right about a few teams though (Nashville, Montreal, Carolina, Vancouver - if Luongo is traded, Toronto - if they get Luongo, others). Because fewer teams will be able to (or forced to) run the season with their #1, less guys will be racking up the highest % of starts.

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