Fantasy mailbag friday: 11/30

[GoalieGuild]

Here you go everyone...feel free to fire away with your questions and I'll do my best to answer them by the end of the day. Tons of college hockey on my plate tonight...like four games on TV plus the OHL Game on NHL Network, then I'm up in Blaine all weekend scouting NA3HL and NAPHL goalies.

[holdUP]

Hey Justin,

For conversation's sake let's say the NHL plays a 45 game schedule this year.

Who do you feel benefitted/positioned themselves well to succeed from/during the time off, and who do you feel hurt their position during the time off?

Thanks!
[edit] terribly worded, and therefore confusing... my apologies lol

[27Blue]

hey justin,

nilsson? poulin? nilsson? poulin?

which one is the most likely successor on the island?
and how long before you think we see one with a meaningful role?

cheers amigo...

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Justin,

For conversation's sake let's say the NHL plays a 45 game schedule this year.

Who do you feel benefitted/positioned themselves well to succeed from/during the time off, and who do you feel hurt their position during the time off?

Thanks!

I think goalies that benefit from the lockout would be the following, in no real order since there's absolutely no way to truly know how goalies will mentally handle the time off. It's also not a complete list, because obviously every goalie is influenced in some way shape or form either negatively or positively ... but I know what you're getting at in terms of fantasy value.

BENEFIT: Hiller, Rask, Khudobin, Varlamov, Bobrovsky, Gustavsson, Quick, Lindback, Greiss, Reimer

I think the lockout benefits Gustavsson because the more time he has to clear his mind of all the pressure and bullshit he dealt with in Toronto, the better. It also allows him time to remove some of the elements that were coached into his game that didn't allow him to play his natural style, and the more time he spends practicing and skating in a more natural way, the better he will be when things start up again. Others are obvious, like Quick, who needed this time to recover from back surgery, Varlamov gaining confidence and becoming more patient on his skates in the KHL...same for Bobrovsky and Khudobin.

HURT: Anderson, Fasth, Enroth, Crawford, Dubnyk, Pavelec, all aging veterans like Brodeur, Clemmensen, etc that are in the final years of their career. The time off makes it that much tougher to stay in game shape and keeping their withering skills honed.

Try to remember back to the last lockout. Some guys we never heard of again, some guys became studs ... Cam Ward, Henrik Lundqvist, etc. This will happen again ... and it's not if a few guys come out of nowhere to become studs, it's who. Maybe Robin Lehner will be one of them.

[GoalieGuild]

hey justin,

nilsson? poulin? nilsson? poulin?

which one is the most likely successor on the island?
and how long before you think we see one with a meaningful role?

cheers amigo...

For awhile I was in Poulin's corner. But this season I've become a bigger fan of Nilsson. He's bigger, he has more experience at the higher pro ranks coming over from Sweden, and he seems to be benefiting greatly from having Steve Valiquette in Bridgeport on a full-time basis.

I think one of these two goalies will get a chance as soon as next season. Nabokov won't be around forever, although I still think he's a workhorse. Garth Snow is a keen GM when it comes to goalies obviously, so one of the two goalies are going to be recalled. They can't have both goalies staying in the AHL and developing effectively.

I like Nilsson long-term right now on the Island, and I would say you'll see one of them have a meaningful role as soon as next season, but for sure by 2014.

[holdUP]

For awhile I was in Poulin's corner. But this season I've become a bigger fan of Nilsson. He's bigger, he has more experience at the higher pro ranks coming over from Sweden, and he seems to be benefiting greatly from having Steve Valiquette in Bridgeport on a full-time basis.

I think one of these two goalies will get a chance as soon as next season. Nabokov won't be around forever, although I still think he's a workhorse. Garth Snow is a keen GM when it comes to goalies obviously, so one of the two goalies are going to be recalled. They can't have both goalies staying in the AHL and developing effectively.

I like Nilsson long-term right now on the Island, and I would say you'll see one of them have a meaningful role as soon as next season, but for sure by 2014.

How would you view the call-up? Would you say they take the guy they see as the better long-term prospect and get him in a good number of games? Or would you argue they'd leave the better long-term prospect to stay in Bridgeport and log a ton of minutes?

[ericdaoust]

I've read/heard some claims that Niko Hovinen is the goalie of the future for the Flyers. Is he likely to become a future NHL goalie and what is the wait time before he does anything significant?

[GoalieGuild]

How would you view the call-up? Would you say they take the guy they see as the better long-term prospect and get him in a good number of games? Or would you argue they'd leave the better long-term prospect to stay in Bridgeport and log a ton of minutes?

It's impossible to know what a team will do with their #3/#4 goalies until you know what they are doing with their top two goalies. Since Rick DiPietro is one of those two goalies, there's no way I could sit here and tell you what Snow has planned for his goalies.

I can tell you that the organization views both goalies as future long-term NHLers. I have that straight from the horse's mouth, and you can read more about it here: http://www.thegoalieguild.com/2012/1...to-bridgeport/

Because of this, they're going to do whatever they can to give both goalies an opportunity to prove themselves. Maybe it comes down to whoever is playing better when a goalie needs to be recalled. Maybe someone starts to take off in Bridgeport and prove himself as the better goalie at that time. Maybe one of them gets injured (call it the DiPietro plague).

Because of the lockout, there are too many unknowns right now, and trust me, it's very frustrating when it comes time to answer these type of questions. I'm just being honest when I say I have no idea. I can speculate and discuss all sorts of scenarios, but this bloody lockout really needs to end so some of the questions can be answered. I don't even know how serious DiPietro's latest groin injury is....

I could see Nabokov being backed up by Nilsson...and Nilsson playing a fair amount of games because Nabokov won't be the superhuman durable workhorse he was in SJ. And don't forget Nabby had a few nagging injuries of his own last season...which helped give Montoya some more exposure.

[Steviek35]

What do you feel the realistic chances of one or both of these landing a back up roll and if so, how far away?

Do you think either have a legit chance at starting down the road?

[GoalieGuild]

I've read/heard some claims that Niko Hovinen is the goalie of the future for the Flyers. Is he likely to become a future NHL goalie and what is the wait time before he does anything significant?

I wouldn't be surprised if the Flyers considered Hovinen as the goalie of the future...they aren't the most keen organization when it comes to goalie development. Not sure where you read that about him, but it's probably just hype. He had to miss the SM-liiga finals because of hip issues, and it's likely to plague him again in the future, so I suggest staying away from Hovinen for now because I know he has bad hips...and playing on the smaller surface doesn't really lend a hand to that being any easier on him. I say wait until he has proven he can stay healthy for a full season in North America, then see where he lands next season. I wouldn't jump on him yet. More risk than reward.

[loco man]

Hey Justin - this is perfect timing, as I have an offer on the table that involves potentially dropping Neuvirth.

I know that it is still to be decided in camp, but I agree with Dobber's 90% belief that Holtby will be the starter. Especially with Holts spending the entire AHL season in front of Oates while Neuvy plays overseas, and seems to be alienating himself from his teammates. All in all, its gotta be Holtby's to lose, no?

Do you think it is a safe enough calculated risk to roll with Holtby? If it is a really foolish move, then I will likely axe Alfe, but I would like to rid myself of the hassle of three tenders if possible.

Thanks!

[GoalieGuild]

What do you feel the realistic chances of one or both of these landing a back up roll and if so, how far away?

Do you think either have a legit chance at starting down the road?

Applying realistic percentages to these two goalies is tough. Desjardins has struggled to stay healthy, and that's the only reason he's not an NHL backup right now. I do think he has a good season in Hamilton, stays healthy, and becomes Carey Price's backup next season. I don't think the Canadiens would have brought him back into the fold after last season's injuries in Lake Erie without realizing he could get injured again...but they want to see him succeed, they know he works hard, they know he's a very good goalie with a bit of starter upside, and they probably want Carey Price to at least see some type of competition behind him...so Desjardins has the door opening in front of him ... he just HAS to stay healthy this season...and through the summer.

Stalock is a stud for a 5-11/6-0 goalie and he's back to being 100% healthy again, and he's playing very well in Worcester right now after a bit of a slow start the first few games. He is definitely an NHL backup in a few more seasons, depending on what happens with Niemi and Greiss. I'm hesitant to say he's a definite NHL starter because he's small and highly athletic, so he doesn't have the frame or play the style that you see with most prototypical starters right now. Very few "smaller and highly athletic" goalies are starters right now ... Quick might be the only one, but his positional game has improved by leaps and bounds over the past few seasons.

But Stalock is definitely going to be an NHL backup in my mind. He's a really skilled and confident goalie, and he has a great trait that will really help his value -- he can move and handle the puck like a boss.

[kevinsrangers]

in your opinion, how long before price is a top 3 fantasy goalie? top 5?

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Justin - this is perfect timing, as I have an offer on the table that involves potentially dropping Neuvirth.

I know that it is still a 50/50, but I agree with Dobber's 90% belief that Holtby will be the starter. Especially with Holts spending the entire AHL season in front of Oats while Neuvy plays overseas, and seems to be alienating himself from his teammates. All in all, its gotta be Holtby's to lose.

I hope. Do you think it is a safe enough calculated risk to roll with Holtby?

Thanks!

Many of you know I'm a huge Neuvirth fan, but after seeing everything I've seen since the playoffs .... Holtby is the goalie to own. Everything Dobber says, and knowing Holtby is playing in a talented AHL right now, it's significant in terms of the optics of his value within the Caps organization. I would say it's definitely safe to roll with Holtby. Neuvirth hasn't been very good in Czech Republic ... "leaky" is the term I'm hearing from scouts overseas.

[GoalieGuild]

in your opinion, how long before price is a top 3 fantasy goalie? top 5?

Really just depends on team defense, how much support he's getting, and what kind of offense they provide in front of him.

Technically speaking, he's already one of the best goalies in the world. His mature mindset in such a tough market like Montreal is unreal. His positioning is unreal. He is a true phenom, and he's still not even really in his prime yet. I think now that he's starting to settle down in terms of getting married and starting a family, that will really bring some balance to his life, and help his overall game and consistency. I can't even begin to tell you how many NHL goalies I've talked to during the lockout that mention the benefits of having a family life. It makes a goalie realize they don't have to live and die by wins and losses. Price is already such a relaxed and even-keeled goalie with a great pro mentality, but I really think you're going to start seeing him play even more clutch and consistent over the next few seasons and beyond......Montreal just has to play better in front of him. Then he'll be Top-5 fantasy goalie.

But no matter how good he is with his game, if they don't provide him with support, he may never be a Top-5 fantasy goalie.